By HCR Staff | September 5, 2019
We won’t officially begin our gaming suggestions based on HCR data for the 2019 season until after Week 3. Why? Two reasons. First, we have to get some baseline data on the season, and we feel our algorithm works best with at least three weeks of data. Second, there are a number of rookie head coaches every year, and we have no historical data on these coaches.
That won’t stop us from simply making a fan’s guess at the outcome of tonight’s Packers at Bears opener. We like the Bears covering the three point line at home. Here are the variables we are focusing on:
- Experience. The Bears simply have a bit more experience with their head coach and his system. It’s not much of an edge, but it is one for sure. Players playing fast – and loose – because of their confidence within a system always is a big plus.
- Matt LaFleur In-Game Inexperience. Until your butt is in the seat with something at stake, it’s hard to know how consistent your judgment will be…and LaFleur is going to find out a lot about himself tonight. He seems intelligent, hardworking, and dedicated…but sometimes you need more than that when it’s a game that matters. A head coach is no different than a player – reps matter and LaFleur still is a virgin.
- Home Field Adrenaline. It’s been a long time that the Bears have entered a season with EXPECTATIONS. We expect high energy from the home crowd, and the Bears are a momentum team. We think this will be a strong factor in the game.
Any Bears concerns? Yes, and it’s this: there were times last year that head coach and playcaller Matt Nagy seemed to run out of play creativity after they ran their first 15 or so scripted offensive plays. We will be watching to see how his offensive playcalling unfolds.