By HCR Staff | Sept. 8, 2018
In looking at our 2017 year-end HCR rankings, and then comparing that data set to our new Game Control Index (“GCI”), we noticed some very interesting patterns. One, however, stood out to us: There were six head coaches who either significantly over- or under-performed the combination of the two data sets.
Over-performers were: Bill O’Brien, Kyle Shanahan and Jay Gruden.
Under-performers were: Mike Tomlin, Ron Rivera and Jason Garrett.
Keep in mind: We are just comparing and analyzing numbers, not shouting opinions. In short, we are letting our data guide the discussion, not the other way around.
So based on this data, HCR predicts that at least one of the under-performers will not be the head coach of their current team in 2019.
And we’ll also predict that one of the over-performers will be in the Top 5 of 2018 Coach of the Year voting, as voted on by sportswriters.
Again, it’s just a fun exercise to test the relative strength (or weakness) of our data sets. We could be right or we could be terribly wrong, but we enjoy hunting for predictive metrics, and in the hunt sometimes you stumble upon something that really works. One simply has to understand that there may be many failures along the way as well.