By HCR Staff | Sept. 28, 2019
We started Head Coach Ranking on the following three premises. First, football is the most highly orchestrated sport. If one accepts this as true, then the competence, judgment, and decision-making of the head coach is critical to the effectiveness of the team and how it performs in each game. Third, there should be an algorithm that measures the relative skill of each head coach.
So we developed the algorithm during the 2017 NFL season and have been refining it ever since, and we feel we are close to perfecting a head coach rating similar to a QB Rating or Passer Rating.
Soon after, we began to experiment with using our HCR numbers for NFL head coaches as a gaming metric. After we compiled eight regular-season games of data in 2017, we began an internal experiment by developing a gaming algorithm that relied solely on our HCR scores. We then made the experiment public for the 2018 NFL season.
Using ONLY our HCR ratings in our proprietary algorithm (not considering any other variables such as injuries, weather, home/road, or any others) we are 57% Against the Spread since inception. This excludes, however, games which do not fit the requirements of our algorithm, which we will not play. Over the same period, we are 64% on the Money Line (which is simply taking the higher rated coach).
Now that each NFL head coach has coached three games in the 2019 season, here are our ATS picks for Week 4. Once again, these are based only on our ratings and utilizing our gaming algorithm. (All picks are based on consensus lines on Wednesday morning.)
N.Y. Giants (-3)
Kansas City (-6.5)
New England (-7)
Tampa Bay (+9.5)
Perhaps you, our reader, may be able to develop a better algorithm utilizing our data. We’d be interested in hearing from you.