By HCR Staff | Oct. 4, 2018
With another week of data at our disposal, Head Coach Ranking can project 13 pointspread winners in Week 5 NFL games.
As a reminder, HCR did an internal study during the second half of last season that produced a 71 percent success rate picking NFL winners against the spread over a seven-week stretch of the 2017 NFL season. We made these recommendations using HCR data – and only HCR data.
We used this proprietary methodology to pick winners last week – even though we only had three weeks of data to use, we finished a modest 5-4-3 against the spread.
Again, our picks rely solely on HCR’s grading of each head coach’s in-game decision-making – no analysis of players, injury reports, home and away data, etc.
One note: If the HCR differential between the opposing coaches is between 0 and .2, we will not make a pick on that game. Two games this week fall into that category: Giants-Panthers and Falcons-Steelers
With that in mind, here are HCR’s Week 5 picks against the spread, using consensus lines as of Wednesday afternoon. These picks are all based on HCR data and do not reflect opinions of any HCR staff (home team in CAPS):
Indianapolis (+10.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND
Baltimore (-3) vs. CLEVELAND
KANSAS CITY (-3) vs. Jacksonville
Tennessee (-3.5) vs. BUFFALO
Denver (+1) vs. N.Y. JETS
Green Bay (-1) vs. DETROIT
Miami (+6.5) vs. CINCINNATI
L.A. CHARGERS (-5.5) vs. Oakland
SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5) vs. Arizona
PHILADELPHIA (-3) vs. Minnesota
L.A. Rams (-7) vs. SEATTLE
Dallas (+3) vs. HOUSTON
Washington (+6.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
Last week’s results ATS: 5-4-3