By HCR Staff | Nov. 1, 2018
With another week of data at our disposal, Head Coach Ranking can project 11 pointspread winners in Week 9 NFL games.
As a reminder, HCR did an internal study during the second half of last season that produced a 71 percent success rate picking NFL winners against the spread over a seven-week stretch of the 2017 NFL season. We made these recommendations using HCR data – and only HCR data.
We used this proprietary methodology to pick winners this season after Week 3 – not as much data as we’d like, but we will continue to collect data and make picks the rest of the season and see where we finish.
Again, our picks rely solely on HCR’s grading of each head coach’s in-game decision-making – no analysis of players, injury reports, home and away data, etc.
One note: If the HCR differential between the opposing coaches is between 0 and .2, we will not make a pick on that game. One game this week falls into that category: Titans-Cowboys. Additionally, with no data on new interim head coach Gregg Williams, we will not pick a winner in the Chiefs-Browns matchup.
With that in mind, here are HCR’s Week 9 picks against the spread, using consensus lines as of Wednesday afternoon. These picks are all based on HCR data and do not reflect opinions of any HCR staff (home team in CAPS):
SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) vs. Oakland
MINNESOTA (-4.5) vs. Detroit
BALTIMORE (-3) vs. Pittsburgh
CAROLINA (-6.5) vs. Tampa Bay
N.Y. Jets (+3) vs. MIAMI
WASHINGTON (-1.5) vs. Atlanta
Chicago (-10) vs. BUFFALO
DENVER (-1) vs. Houston
L.A. Chargers (+1.5) vs. SEATTLE
L.A. Rams (+1.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
NEW ENGLAND (-5.5) vs. Green Bay
Last week’s results ATS: 5-7
Season results: 26-31-5