By HCR Staff | October 1, 2020
To recap, here at HCR we make two types of picks every week. Our Against the Spread picks are made by using nothing but our HCR scores and our proprietary algorithm. With our Moneyline picks, however, we simply take the higher rated head coach. For the 2019 season, we had a 64 percent success rate for Moneyline picks and 56 percent success rate for ATS Picks.
Even more impressive: On the Moneyline, HCR has a cumulative 63 percent success rate for 2017-19. We’ll see how our algorithms hold up for 2020.
Again, our picks rely solely on HCR’s grading of each head coach’s in-game decision-making – we don’t rely on any other variables such as player quality, injuries, weather, home and away data, etc.
One condition of note: If the HCR differential between the opposing coaches is not at least .2, we will not make a pick on that game. This week, two games falls under that category: Indianapolis-Chicago and Pittsburgh-Tennessee (and this game has been postponed as well). In addition, in Week 4, we also will not be making any recommendations for Minnesota-Houston game until more information is known about the COVID-19 situation.
With that in mind, here are our Week 4 Moneyline picks:
And lastly, ATS picks for Week 4 based on consensus lines on Wednesday morning:
New Orleans (-4)
Tampa Bay (-7)
NY Giants (+12.5)
New England (+7)
San Francisco (-7)
Green Bay (-7)