By HCR Staff | Jan. 4, 2019
After two seasons of picking winners – both against the spread and straight up with the moneyline – Head Coach Ranking has found consistent success with a methodology based solely on the combination of past performance and our proprietary HCR grades.
As a reminder, HCR did an internal study during the second half of last season that produced a 71 percent success rate picking NFL winners against the spread over a seven-week stretch of the 2017 NFL season. We made these recommendations using HCR data – and only HCR data.
While we didn’t make picks in 2017 until midway through the season – so that we could gather as much data as possible – we started making picks in Week 3 this season. And even including results from the final two weeks of the season (when betting results can get skewed because some teams are out of the playoffs and playoff teams are resting starters), HCR picks were positive.
Over the past two seasons, HCR’s picks against the spread have had a combined 57 percent success rate.
Even more impressive: Picking winners with the moneyline, HCR has a 64 percent success rate for 2017-18.
Again, our picks rely solely on HCR’s grading of each head coach’s in-game decision-making – no analysis of players, injury reports, home and away data, etc.
With that in mind, here are HCR’s Wild Card Weekend picks against the spread, using consensus lines as of Wednesday afternoon. These picks are all based on HCR data and do not reflect opinions of any HCR staff (home team in CAPS):
Indianapolis (+1) vs. HOUSTON
Seattle (+2) vs. DALLAS
BALTIMORE (-2.5) vs. L.A. Chargers
CHICAGO (-6) vs. Philadelphia
Last Week: 6-6
Season to Date: 80-77-6
NOTE: All four of our Moneyline picks this week are the same as our pointspread picks.
