By HCR Staff | Dec. 20, 2018
With another week of data at our disposal, Head Coach Ranking can project 11 pointspread winners in Week 16 NFL games.
As a reminder, HCR did an internal study during the second half of last season that produced a 71 percent success rate picking NFL winners against the spread over a seven-week stretch of the 2017 NFL season. We made these recommendations using HCR data – and only HCR data.
Again, our picks rely solely on HCR’s grading of each head coach’s in-game decision-making – no analysis of players, injury reports, home and away data, etc.
One note: If the HCR differential between the opposing coaches is between 0 and .2, we will not make a pick on that game. Five games this week fall into that category: Redskins-Titans, Buccaneers-Cowboys, Falcons-Panthers, Packers-Jets, and Bengals-Browns.
With that in mind, here are HCR’s Week 16 picks against the spread, using consensus lines as of Wednesday afternoon. These picks are all based on HCR data and do not reflect opinions of any HCR staff (home team in CAPS):
L.A. CHARGERS (-4.5) vs. Baltimore
Buffalo (+13) vs. NEW ENGLAND
Jacksonville (+4.5) vs. MIAMI
N.Y. Giants (+9.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) vs. Houston
DETROIT (+5.5) vs. Minnesota
L.A. Rams (-13.5) vs. ARIZONA
Chicago (-4) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ORLEANS (-5.5) vs. Pittsburgh
Kansas City (-2.5) vs. SEATTLE
Denver (+2.5) vs. OAKLAND
Last week’s results ATS: 5-7
Season results: 69-65-66