By HCR Staff | May 20, 2020
Preparing an NFL team for a season requires orchestration of a lot of moving parts, and for every NFL head coach, a lot of those parts and brand new – and untested – every year.
And when the schedule in the traditional preparation months gets disrupted, the efficacy of the team will get disrupted as well.
In this scenario, the general belief among the industry is that the defense will be ahead of the offense – i.e., offenses will look out of rhythm and simply won’t be as productive in the earlier part of the season.
Offenses rely just a bit more on synchronicity, and in order to have great synchronicity among the offensive players, they have to have familiarity and time together. But if they don’t get that time together, it’s presumed there will be less synchronicity, greater confusion, and all of this results in poor play.
Will this proposition hold for the projected 2020 NFL season?
If, for some reason, the NFL season starts on time, we firmly believe defenses will be ‘ahead’ of offenses. There may be a few offenses that’ll thrive, but that’s contingent on how many new players they have to integrate – the fewer the better.
If the NFL season begins in mid-October, however, the risk of offenses being behind defenses is minimized. In this scenario, teams may not get preseason games to use to fine tune performance, but they may get extended camp time to work together.
Does Vegas factor this into their propositions? We think it should. If the season starts on time, we’d favor Under more frequently than the Over.
So as you get ready to prepare for your NFL gaming choices, keep an eye on the start date of the season. That’s a key number to consider.