Head Coach Ranking

The Post-Draft Undrafted Free Agent Process Needs More Honor

By HCR Staff | April 28, 2020

Once the draft ends, another process begins that is just as important, and that’s the recruitment of undrafted free agents.  More undrafted free agents have made the NFL Hall of Fame than first rounders, so it’s not an insignificant process.  

For the players that weren’t drafted, the 30 minutes or so right after the draft literally is the only real window of opportunity for NFL employment until the regular season starts.  That’s the next material open window for an opportunity because that’s when most teams will hold tryouts.  

So if you’re undrafted, and you miss getting employed right after the draft, you’ll have to wait a minimum of 4 months just to get another look, and that’s under the best of circumstances.

Every team goes into every draft with a process for signing undrafted free agents, although this year was slightly complicated by COVID.  The recruiting of projected undrafted players and their agents can start as early as Round 5, and it really begins getting heated in Round 7.  

During this time period, information is flowing fast and heavy.  An undrafted player and his agent have to process all of it – what’s the depth chart look like, who is the position coach, what’s the scheme, how many players did they draft at the position, etc.  

For a player who is undrafted, getting over the disappointment of not being selected is tough enough; now he has to sort out offers and choosing the wrong one can mean the difference between having a career or not.

Irrespective of when the recruiting begins and the commitments are made, mutual trust between the undrafted player, agent and team is critical to the process.  This cannot be emphasized enough.

Why is trust important?

First, since paperwork isn’t consummated until well after the draft, everything plays out verbally.  

Second, and most importantly, the undrafted player and the team are making plans for the immediate future.  If each gives their word to each other – the team makes an offer that the player commits to – then the player can tell other potential suitors he’s made a choice, and the team can stop recruiting other players at the same position.

This is why trust is critical to the process, particularly to the undrafted player.  He doesn’t want to go into the entire spring and summer being unattached – otherwise known as a “street free agent.”

But trust has been eroding in this process, and that hurts a lot of players.

Every draft year there are stories of deceit by a team or a player involving the undrafted free agent process.  This year, however, we’ve heard that teams were particularly underhanded about it, so much so that agent Mike McCartney tweeted about it. 

Teams apparently were much bolder with their deceit, and were pulling offers they had committed to, leaving players stranded, since they already had spurned other offers.  In our view, fairly despicable behavior.  We’re sure NFL GMs and head coaches wouldn’t want potential employers treating their sons or daughters in the same fashion.

To the general public, a spurned aspiring NFL player generally isn’t a sympathetic figure.  But in the industry, they’re young men who’ve worked a long time to achieve a dream.  They’ve just dealt with the disappointment of not being selected, and then to have endure further disappointment by a lack of honor by an NFL GM or scout or coach is just piling on.

There are better ways to conduct this process for NFL teams and their personnel.  One fundamental starting point is to get into the habit of having actual behavior match the words coming out of your mouth.

The 2020 NFL Draft Will Change How The NFL Scouts In The Future, And Playing A Third Year In College Will Be Less Important Than Ever

By HCR Staff | April 24, 2020

COVID-19 has wreaked havoc around the world. The NFL hasn’t been shielded from the effects of this virus, and there’s been some chaos surrounding the league’s premier off-season event, the NFL Draft. It certainly is not “business as usual”. 

NFL teams have been forced to scramble and implement Plans B, C & D as their traditional protocols have been completely disrupted.  Pro Days were cut short, Top 30 visits were eliminated, and private workouts didn’t happen.

As a result, NFL teams are going into the Draft blinder than ever. They have some information, but certainly not as much as they would like. 

Every NFL team now has to consider variables they normally wouldn’t. Will there be a Supplemental Draft, and if so, will more talented players apply for it?  How many undrafted free agents should a team sign, especially if there isn’t a traditional learning period such as OTA’s and minicamp?

Teams will adapt, however, and in our view, one major way will be the projections they make on players who don’t play all or most of their final college season.

In the past, there was the belief that the more college games a player participated in, the better.

That’s no longer the case.  Why? Decision makers don’t want talented players risking injury and even, learning “bad” football.

NFL teams no longer want the next generation of talent wrecking their bodies playing college ball.  They know that at a certain point, it’s of no further value for the player or for an NFL team.

NFL teams also know that the difference between college football and NFL football could not be starker.  They’re completely different games and the instruction reflects that.  At many college programs, players are getting coached up on things that don’t matter at the NFL level.

Plus, there’s data to indicate that many successful NFL players miss all or large parts of their final college season.  If that’s the data, why ignore it?

Here’s a brief list of players to illustrate this point.

Tyrann Mathieu.  0 starts in his junior year; he was suspended.

Leonard Fournette.  Played ‘only’ 7 games his junior year.

Nick Bosa.  Played 2.5 games his junior year.

Carson Wentz.  6 starts in his final college year, plus the FCS championship. Missed 8 games due to injury.

Todd Gurley.  6 starts in his final college season due to injury and suspension.

Marcus Peters.  8 starts his final college season; was thrown off team for the remainder.

Josh Gordon.  0 starts in his final college season; entered the NFL’s Supplemental Draft after transferring from Baylor to Utah.

Richie Incognito.  Left the Nebraska team in September, transfers to Oregon, thrown off the team there the same month, and never plays there.  Missed his entire final college season.

Antonio Cromartie.  Missed his entire final college season due to injury.

Rob Gronkowski.  Like Cromartie, missed his entire final college season due to injury.

Myles Jack.  Left UCLA 3 games into his junior season.

Every player listed here has enjoyed success in the NFL, some of it at the Hall of Fame level, and while many questions arose during their draft process, every NFL team adapted to the circumstance presented. Greater adaptation will be the norm.  Teams will be far less reluctant to draft players who didn’t play their final year in college – teams will just dig deeper and be more willing to take risks.  Players will skip most, if not their entire final college season, especially when more and more players get drafted anyway.  Players know they will continue to be evaluated, whether they’re in school or not.

NFL Draft 2020 – Round 1 Notes

By HCR Staff | April 24, 2020

Round 1 of the 2020 NFL Draft is complete.   We give the league and ESPN a lot of credit for successfully pulling it off – there weren’t any major glitches and most importantly, it didn’t get hacked.

Here’s our Round 1 analysis.

The Bengals Wisely Take QB Joe Burrow.  Some of us here thought the Bengals might try to get cute with the first pick overall, but luckily for Bengals fans, they stood pat and took Burrow.  

While we believe Andy Dalton can still be a productive quarterback, it’s pretty clear the Bengals needed to inject some energy into the organization and fan base.  

The Bengals couldn’t afford to pass on the in-state kid with the championship resume.  

The pressure now shifts to second- year head coach Zac Taylor.  He had his honeymoon season in 2019 and was able to coach without any expectations whatsoever.  That’s going to change now, and he’ll either be known as the head coach who turned Burrow into a star or who failed to develop the most talented quarterback in this draft.

49ers GM John Lynch Had A Good Night.  We didn’t like that the 49ers traded all-world defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (there has to be some back story to this) to the Colts. However, drafting South Carolina defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw will take the sting out of Buckner’s departure.  The heart of the 49ers is the defensive line, and they’ll line up in the fall with Dee Ford, Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa and Kinlaw.  If Kinlaw is just 50% of what Buckner is, it’ll still be a fearsome unit.  By taking Kinlaw with the fourteenth pick rather than a much-needed WR, we see now that Lynch’s philosophy is to use their assets on defense.  

Why? 

Lynch knows he’s got Kyle “minimum 30 points a game” Shanahan as head coach.  Shanahan put up incredible numbers last year with a beat up OL and WR group, so Lynch has some margin of error.  

Lynch also jumped back into the end of the first round to snag Arizona State WR Brandon Aiyuk with the 25th pick.  

In sum, Lynch drafted a top level potential replacement for Buckner and still was able to obtain a premium WR prospect.  Not bad for a guy who still is learning on the job.

The LA Chargers Have A Bright Future.  The Chargers head into 2020 with a serviceable veteran quarterback in Tyrod Taylor, and talent throughout the roster.  With their first selection in Round 1, the Chargers selected Oregon QB Justin Herbert – a top level physical and intellectual talent who has as high a ceiling as any QB in the draft.  Herbert will need many reps under center, but he’s a bright guy and a hard worker, so we have no concern that he’ll adjust.  He will need to work on the play action game, but having Taylor gives the Chargers some security.  The Chargers also traded back into the first round and selected speedy Oklahoma LB Kenneth Murray with the 23rd pick.  He’s another physically gifted player that looks to be the Chargers’ version of Bobby Wagner.   The Chargers will need to upgrade the OL unit, but top to bottom, it’s a squad that could surprise.  Taylor isn’t elite, but he’s led a team to the playoffs before, and he’s not going to make a lot of dumb mistakes.  

We Like QB Jordan Love, But We Didn’t Like The Packers Taking Him There.  We can understand why the Packers took Love with their selection – QB Aaron Rodgers will turn 37 during the season, and the Packers have to start planning on a replacement at some point.  But other talented QBs are in this draft too (e.g., Jacob Eason), and the Packers aren’t that far away from playing in a Super Bowl.  They need a LB, and LSU’s Patrick Queen was there for the taking.  Love definitely is going to sit for at least a year…or two…or maybe even three.  Some might argue that’s a waste of a top selection when you have a team that can contend now.

Round 1 Didn’t Contain A Lot Of Surprises.  Most of the round played out with the ‘chalk’ picks – every player selected was considered, for the most part, a first round talent.  That was to be expected; after all, teams are dealing with less information this than in previous years, so at least in Round 1, being conservative made a lot of sense.  We anticipate that there’ll be more surprises on Friday and Saturday. 

NFL Head Coaches With The Most Authority On Draft Day

By HCR Staff | April 23, 2020

Draft day dynamics differ from team to team, and from a business perspective, it’s fascinating to watch how differently each organization operates.

Winning formulas have differed over the years; we’ve had dynasties where the general manager makes every decision (e.g., Al Davis and the Raiders), and we’ve had dynasties where the head coach makes every decision (e.g., Bill Walsh and the 49ers).

And we’ve had other successful organizations where the head coach and general manager shared decision-making responsibilities. (e.g., Tony Dungy & Bill Polian with the Indianapolis Colts).

No one has a monopoly on good ideas when it comes to operational structure, and in our view, it all comes down to the talent and personality (and ego) of the individuals involved.  

Team owner preference plays an important role in determining the organizational and decision-making structure of a team.  In the old NFL, owners were expected to simply write the checks and stay out of the way.  It’s not that way anymore as the modern owner, with greater frequency, comes from the corporate world, and they often bring their own bag of tricks and beliefs regarding organizational structure.

So as we analyze the input of head coaches on draft day, imagine a spectrum.  On the left end is a GM-centric model where the head coach has little to no input.  On the right end is a Head Coach-centric model where his decisions are final.

Most teams are in the middle of the spectrum, but they definitely lean more toward one end or the other.

Going into this Draft, here are the head coaches with the most authority, in our view (and in no particular order):

Bill Belichick, Patriots.  Full, undiluted authority.  The NFL’s version of a combo King-Pope, rolled into one.  Perceived ultimate power and infallibility (emphasis on ‘perceived’).

Bill O’Brien, Texans.  The last season was Shakespearean; O’Brien somehow purged anyone with any power and left himself standing.  Of course, he learned some tricks from the King-Pope in New England, so this isn’t surprising. 

Jon Gruden, Raiders.  Yes, GM Mike Mayock is a strong personality who knows players, but make no mistake, it’s all Gruden’s show.  Gruden has a very specific vision, and no one is going to get in his way as he tries to implement it.  

Sean Payton, Saints.    The Saints have a GM in Mickey Loomis, but Payton has the juice to come up with the vision and the pull to get the pieces he wants.  It was Payton that picked up Taysom Hill, and it was his vision to turn Hill into a valuable asset in all phases of the game.  

Matt Rhule, Panthers.  Rhule would not have taken the job unless he was given full authority, and notwithstanding GM Marty Hurney’s title, Rhule is going to call every shot from here on out.  He’s a proven program builder, and that’s the reason successful hedge fund trader and Panthers owner David Tepper wanted Rhule in the first place.  Tepper’s a Wall Street expert when it comes to assessing financial risk, and he’s putting his chips on Rhule.  Rhule’s got a smidgen of NFL experience, but his virgin tour as an NFL head coach is starting in the league’s toughest division.

HCR’S Player Personnel Executive Spotlight

By HCR Staff | April 22, 2020

Much of the NFL Draft’s popularity comes from the excitement of watching the infusion of young, talented players into the league.  The new talent brings hope for every team.

It takes talent to find the talent. Someone has to find and evaluate the players, determine the “fit”, and much of the time, advocate for the player’s selection and inclusion into the team.

On NFL teams, an owner, head coach or general manager makes the pick based on information provided by a lower level personnel executive or scout. The lower level executive or scout has little to no control over a player’s selection, much less that player’s development.  The successful development of a player often depends on a number of factors including but not limited to:  luck, scheme, reps, encouragement, and most of all, patience. 

There’s a number of personnel people who do a consistently outstanding job that the public might not know about. We thought we’d highlight a number of those talented people here:

Anthony Robinson, Falcons, Director of College Scouting.  The recently promoted Robinson is popular among his peers, and a self-made man.  He spent years in the “civilian” world gaining valuable work experience as a corporate executive, so he brings a refreshing perspective to player evaluation.  He’s paid his dues as a road scout, and now he’ll be ‘inside’ as a director.  Robinson has terrific people skills and that makes him a ‘glue’ guy within player personnel departments.  It’s for this reason that Robinson will be an NFL GM – and very soon – perhaps by 2021.

Sae Woon Jo, Falcons, Area Scout.  Like Robinson, Sae Woon Jo works in a young and dynamic Falcons personnel department.  The energetic Sae Woon Jo covers a large Western region for the Falcons. He joined the scouting ranks after coaching Division III football – at Occidental College in the greater Los Angeles area – Barack Obama’s first college stop.  He brings a strong work ethic to the job. Like Anthony Robinson, he also worked for years outside of football to support himself and his family.  He’s a good listener and relates easily to players. He also has the unique coach perspective.  He’s recognized for running Pro Day workouts and not being afraid to get his hands dirty. 

Jeff Ireland, Saints, Assistant GM – Director of College Scouting.  Ireland is a name that fans know a bit as a result of a prior tenure as Dolphins General Manager.  Even though he was dismissed from that position, he’s worked incredibly hard to add to his skills and eliminate negative perceptions about him. The results are undeniable. Ireland has helped transform the New Orleans Saints into perennial Super Bowl contenders.  Since joining the Saints in 2015, Ireland has drafted players such as Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Marshon Lattimore, Sheldon Rankins, David Onyemata, Ryan Ramczyck and Marcus Williams.  Ireland will get another GM opportunity, possibly in 2021.  Ireland’s draft record is just too good to ignore. 

Kevin McCabe, Vikings, Area Scout.  Popular among his peers, McCabe is a longtime road scout covering the West region for the Vikings.  McCabe is exceedingly bright; he has many interests outside of football and can speak on a wide range of topics.  Notwithstanding his smarts, McCabe is a humble, down to earth personality.  If you’re a Vikings fan, you can see McCabe’s fingerprints here and there on the roster.  Anthony Barr?  From the West.  Eric Kendricks? Same. That’s a lot of production right there.  

Monti Ossenfort, Patriots, Director of College Scouting.  Ossenfort is another private, behind-the-scenes brain that Bill Belichick has groomed.  He hits all the check marks for Belichick:  former small college player (QB), economics major, MBA, and possesses great attention to detail.  Along with Nick Caserio, Ossenfort leads the Patriots efforts in scouting new talent.  Ossenfort works in a buttoned up organization but is viewed as a likeable guy and is considered a future GM.  He is someone that could assume that role in 2021.