Head Coach Ranking

The Curious Case of Adam Gase

By Juan Lozano | September 22, 2020

In last week’s loss against the 49ers, with 3:41 remaining in the second quarter, the score 14-3, and facing fourth-and-one at the 49ers 20-yard line, Jets head coach Adam Gase decides to have the offense attempt a conversion rather than kick a field goal to cut the deficit to one score. 

The 4th down attempt falls short. 

With the momentum of a failed conversion (there’s a reason that a team that stops a conversion races off the field with arms raised in jubilation) the 49ers marched down the field in 13 plays for a touchdown.

This score right before the half effectively put this game out of reach. 

Think about this:

  • Kick a field goal and it is a one-score game.
  • It is right before the half against the defending NFC Champions at home.
  • The 49ers have been decimated by injuries at this point in this game.
  • The Jets have the benefit of the two-minute warning and all of their timeouts.
  • A stop against the wounded 49ers here and the Jets might have been able to get more points on the board.

But they never had the opportunity. 

However, later in the game (2:49 in the third quarter) and trailing 24-3, Adam Gase kicked a field goal from the 7-yard line.

In sum, when the game was close, earlier in the contest, Gase didn’t want to kick a field goal.

But when there was more distance between the two teams and later in the game, he kicked a field goal.  This makes absolute zero sense.

Opinions expressed are solely of the author and do not express the views or opinions of Headcoachranking.com.

The Biggest Opponent For Brian Flores, Adam Gase & Sean McDermott? It won’t be Bill Belichick – it’ll be Expectations

By HCR Staff | April 16, 2020

As soon as Tom Brady announced he was leaving the AFC East, the fan bases of the Dolphins, Jets and the Bills found cause for celebration.  And why not?  Their 20 years in the shadow of the Patriots was miserable.

Their celebrations, however, have unwittingly given rise to an opponent their head coaches will find even more formidable than Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick.

And that opponent is the burden of expectations.

Suddenly, owners Terry Pegula, Woody Johnson and Steve Ross will think – and rightfully so – why shouldn’t we unseat the Patriots as AFC East champs? 

Up until this point, a second place finish to the Patriots by Brian Flores, Adam Gase or Sean McDermott was construed as an effective 1st place finish – basically, every fan and commentator, for 20 years, would write in the Pats as AFC East champs, so the only expectation on the rest of the division was for who could be ‘first of the worst?’

Now, that’s not going to be good enough.  Flores, Gase and McDermott will have more work on their plate this year because they’re going to have to spend time deflecting media questions that address new possibilities, and expectations.

That late season W by Flores over the Patriots last season?  That was celebrated by the Dolphins like a playoff win.  That’s not going to fly this year – it’s going to be expected.

The competitive home loss by the Bills to the Patriots last year that McDermott was lauded for?  That equation is different now; a home loss this year and McDermott’s going to get the evil eye from every fan.  Bills Mafia will turn in a hurry.

Every head coach likes being an underdog because there’s an absence of expectations.  They call it the ‘burden’ of expectations for a reason…because it feels damn heavy.  You win, well, we expected it – you didn’t do anything special.  You lose?  You’re incompetent.

To make matters worse, Flores, Gase and McDermott know the Patriots locker room still has some proud veterans, and more importantly, proud veteran coaches.  Those players and coaches are going to have super bounces in their step this season because for the first time in a long time, they kissed the burden of expectations goodbye.

Expectations.  It’s the enemy of coaches everywhere.  And in the AFC East this year, it’ll be all over the joint in New York, Miami and Buffalo.

Head Coach Rankings Update After Week 12

By HCR Staff | Nov. 26, 2019

We have our first perfect score for the 2019 season! It belongs to Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh after dominating the Los Angeles Rams at the Coliseum on Monday night. The defense was suffocating, the run game was unstoppable and quarterback Lamar Jackson put on show worthy of the L.A. spotlight. It was physical and dynamic which reflected how Harbaugh and the entire Ravens organization envisioned this team when they first started building it.

After an uninspiring first half of the season, Adam Gase and the New York Jets find themselves in a three-game winning streak. Sure, the first two came against easier opponents but this week Gase’s team not only beat a very good Oakland Raiders team, but held Jon Gruden’s offense to a field goal. Clearly the return of QB Sam Darnold and the relationship he has with Gase is proving to be a key part to this turnaround.

Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots took care of the talented Dallas Cowboys in a low-scoring affair. Though it was close and the Cowboys put themselves in a position to win, ultimately the Patriots never lost control of the game.

Mike Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans showed up for another big game. After beating the Kansas City Chiefs and off a bye week, the Titans dominated a divisional foe, the Jacksonville Jaguars, for a key win in the standings. Credit to Vrabel for making this team a dangerous opponent to play.

Here are HCR’s Top Ten head coaches for Week 12:
1. John Harbaugh–10.0
T2. Adam Gase–8.4
T2. Bill Belichick–8.4
4. Mike Vrabel–8.2
5. Kyle Shanahan–8.0
T6. Bruce Arians–7.8
T6. Pete Carroll–7.8
T9. Bill O’Brien–7.6
T9. Freddie Kitchens–7.6

Click here for YTD Head Coach Rankings after Week 12

NFL Week 12 Monday Coaching Observations

By HCR Staff | Nov. 25, 2019

Here are some observations of head coaches from around the NFL prior to HCR’s Week 12 rankings:

The Dallas Cowboys have Super Bowl talent, but the coaching staff just isn’t there yet.  Jason Garrett is known throughout the profession as a professional and upstanding guy, but is he among the top-tier of NFL head coaches as a strategist? He’s not. That’s not his fault, he can only accomplish whatever his talent allows him to do. Ultimately, he didn’t put himself in this position, Jerry Jones did. Given that Jerry also is the most hands-on owner in the NFL, whatever results the Cowboys deliver, it’s on Jerry. Yesterday’s Cowboys loss in New England proves once again that generally speaking, superior talent does not always end up victorious. The NFL is highly dependent on competent coaching, and it was highly doubtful that Jason Garrett, offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and defensive coordinator Kris Richard, were going to go in to Foxborough and win a game against Bill Belichick. Garrett and his staff put the Cowboys in a position to win the game, but could any observer of yesterday’s game genuinely say that the Cowboys ever had the game under control at any point? The Cowboys will win games where they have the talent edge and the opposing coaching staff is equal to or less competent than their own. Their record reflects this.

Matt LaFleur may be a fine head coach in time, but the Packers 2019 season is being propped up by QB Aaron Rodgers, DC Mike Pettine, and free agent acquisitions Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith.  In the Green Bay Packers one sided lost to the San Francisco 49ers last night, the most alarming thing that we saw was the lack of adjustments by Packers head coach Matt LaFleur and his staff. The Packers’ defense, like they have all season, hung in there admirably, but the Packers’ offensive staff literally had no answers for their sluggishness. We didn’t see any tempo change, nor any other strategic adjustments during a game in which the Packers had numerous opportunities to make competitive. We felt that the Packers got away from their running game too quickly, as running back Aaron Jones was giving excellent effort on his opportunities. Of all the rookie head coaches, LaFleur landed in the most opportune situation, inheriting a Hall of Fame quarterback and a terrific defensive coordinator. LaFleur gets a pass on the 2019 season as he is a rookie, but we will be interested to see what his growth is in the future.

Adam Gase and the New York Jets have won three games in a row, and central to that progress is the relationship between Gase and QB Sam Darnold.  Gase made his reputation as an offensive coordinator coaching Peyton Manning during Manning’s Denver Broncos tenure. The two had a very close relationship, so much so that Manning has recommended Gase for head coaching opportunities. It looks as if Gase and Jets QB Sam Darnold are developing a close relationship as well, and it is beginning to pay dividends. Darnold is playing with tremendous confidence and assuredness–it’s a mental sweet spot that every quarterback wants to be in.  Darnold knows that Gase has his back, and vice versa. Additionally, the Jets quietly have the number one run defense in the NFL. If they can close out the 2019 campaign with some momentum–they dominated the Oakland Raiders and Dallas in-home wins already–this is a young team capable of making noise in 2020.  

What makes the 49ers defense so dangerous is the communication between the players, and that is a credit to defensive coordinator Robert Saleh.  By now, the entire league is aware of the immense talent the 49ers possess on defense. However, what we see as the secret to their success is the communication between the players. It’s a defense where the players trust each other, and they know the scheme well enough to where they can self-correct, without any coaching intervention. That’s a high level of discipline, and it is a reflection on the coaching staff, and particularly defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. It looks to us as if he has entrusted cornerback Richard Sherman to control the back end, and linebacker Fred Warner to control the front end. HCR does not think Saleh is ready to be a head coach yet, but he certainly is a rising talent.

Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel still struggles with in-game strategy, but he shows elite leadership qualities.  Simply put, the Titans know how to get up for big games, and that is a direct reflection on head coach Mike Vrabel. The organization does not get a lot of national attention, but since Vrabel has arrived, no one would dispute that the Titans are a tough out. Occasionally, and as evidenced by their record, the Titans will throw up stinkers, but here we are past the midway point of the season, and the Titans are in the mix for another divisional title. This season, Vrabel has had to break in a new offensive coordinator, as well as manage a QB change. He’s done both very well, and he now has a team that plays in his image: tough and tenacious. As his in-game decision-making improves, the W-L also will improve. Right now, however, it’s still good enough to keep the Titans contending.

It’s a lost season for the Broncos, and the responsibility falls on GM John Elway.  When rookie head coach Vic Fangio was hired by John Elway to become the new head coach of the Broncos, we felt Fangio’s most critical decision would be a choice of offensive coordinator. Fangio chose 49ers QB coach Rich Scangarello. Scangarello had never been an NFL offensive coordinator–thus, the Broncos were going to be led by a rookie head coach and rookie offensive coordinator. Pile on top of that, the Broncos were going to try to break in a new QB (Joe Flacco) into a new system. It simply was too much. One man could have provided guidance, and that was Elway. We don’t know if he tried to, but he certainly could have put up some guardrails. The Broncos are a mess right now, and have no direction.  

NFL Week 9 Monday Coaching Observations

By HCR Staff | Nov. 4, 2019

Here are some observations of head coaches from around the NFL prior to HCR’s Week 9 rankings:

Don’t count out Anthony Lynn’s Los Angeles Chargers.  The Chargers are returning to health and availability, as the presence of running back Melvin Gordon and tight end Hunter Henry is transforming the team. While those player additions are important, it was the Chargers’ crispness and tempo that stood out to us. In their best performance of the season, the Chargers played with excellent and consistent energy throughout the game on both sides of the ball. The Chargers also seemed to play with a higher degree of discipline and dedication to assignment. As a result, the Chargers completely controlled the game from start to finish–something that is difficult to do against a good Green Bay Packers team that was playing in front of a pro-Packers crowd. If the Chargers can bring this type of execution to their remaining schedule, it would not surprise us if they run the table.

Matt Nagy of the Chicago Bears has a potentially career-defining decision to make. We still feel that Matt Nagy is a promising head coach, but he certainly is confronted with a potentially career-defining decision, and that is whether or not to bench current starting quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. It’s very clear to any observer that Trubisky is not improving–at the moment, at the very least. Perhaps if Trubisky sits for a stretch, it actually might help him in the long run. Either way, it’s a difficult decision that Nagy has to make, and thus far, he still seems firmly in Trubisky’s corner, even though Trubisky is not passing the eyeball test. Whether it is fair or not, Nagy’s career could be defined by this singular decision. The division still is up for grabs, and while the Bears’ defense has not performed at its highest level, it still is formidable enough to contend. 

The New York Jets have some good young talent, but it is not being served well by head coach Adam Gase. Of course, this statement may be accused of stating the obvious, but Sunday’s game against the Miami Dolphins was an embarrassment. Jets head coach Adam Gase simply has not created an environment that produces a professional result. Other than the personal efforts of the players–and they should be commended–there is no rhyme or reason to what the Jets are doing. Their game plans are far too ambitious, particularly considering they have not proven they can simply line up the most basic plays and produce results. Franchise QB Sam Darnold’s fundamentals are completely frazzled, and we are fearful he will lose confidence and regress. The circumstances surrounding Gase’s hiring at the Jets were strange to begin with, and it is not surprising that the results he is producing also are far beyond the norm. 

Bill O’Brien’s Houston Texans are finding an identity and settling into a rhythm.  The Texans are growing by leaps and bounds in the right direction, and the credit goes to their head coach Bill O’Brien. What we see is a team that has found its identity, and knows exactly how to move the ball, and what it wants to do on defense. That creates a team that will be dangerous in the playoffs. QB DeShaun Watson is a legitimate MVP candidate, and his comfort in the talent around him and the system, is now second nature. On defense, the Texans play as a sound and disciplined unit, and most importantly, play with great passion. All of this adds up to an organizational confidence that is trending in the right direction. There’s no more “hoping” in their play. The Texans know how to get on top of an opponent, and they also know how to close out a W now.

The NFL game is all about matchups, and in last night’s Ravens-Patriots game, the matchups favored the Ravens–for now.  John Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens coaching staff and players brought an excellent performance to their victory last night over the New England Patriots, and it was largely due to a matchup advantage in personnel.  The Ravens like to blitz a lot, principally because they have to help a defensive line that cannot generate pressure on its own. Last night, the Ravens were able to get away with this defensive tactic because, from a matchup standpoint, the Patriots don’t have a burner on the outside to threaten the end zone. Consequently, the Ravens could sell out with minimal risk, and the strategy worked well. Earlier in the season, the Ravens defense was torched for 40 points by the Cleveland Browns. Why? Well, the Browns have speedster WR Odell Beckham Jr., and that creates a completely different problem for the Ravens. Bill Belichick’s Patriots won’t stand pat, however. Rookie WR N’Keal Harry wasn’t active last night, and while he isn’t a top-level burner, his future presence in the offense will change the dynamic.  Patriots opponents know the Patriots cannot threaten them over the top, so for the remainder of this season, Belichick will have to scheme around this limitation–which he created as he was wearing his GM hat.

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has the Steelers playing a more complementary style of football.  While we don’t believe Mike Tomlin will ever grace the top of our HCR rankings given his in-game judgment ups and downs, he has done a good job of motivating a young Steelers roster and bringing them together to play a complementary style of football that is producing great results. Interestingly enough, the Steelers had in recent years become so proficient on offense, that the defense had become an afterthought. Now, however, it is not a given that the offense will score 35 points, so Tomlin and his staff have to manage the game differently, and much of that depends on not putting the defense into bad positions.