Bill O'Brien Archives - Head Coach Ranking

NFL Head Coaches With The Most Authority On Draft Day

By HCR Staff | April 23, 2020

Draft day dynamics differ from team to team, and from a business perspective, it’s fascinating to watch how differently each organization operates.

Winning formulas have differed over the years; we’ve had dynasties where the general manager makes every decision (e.g., Al Davis and the Raiders), and we’ve had dynasties where the head coach makes every decision (e.g., Bill Walsh and the 49ers).

And we’ve had other successful organizations where the head coach and general manager shared decision-making responsibilities. (e.g., Tony Dungy & Bill Polian with the Indianapolis Colts).

No one has a monopoly on good ideas when it comes to operational structure, and in our view, it all comes down to the talent and personality (and ego) of the individuals involved.

Team owner preference plays an important role in determining the organizational and decision-making structure of a team. In the old NFL, owners were expected to simply write the checks and stay out of the way. It’s not that way anymore as the modern owner, with greater frequency, comes from the corporate world, and they often bring their own bag of tricks and beliefs regarding organizational structure.

So as we analyze the input of head coaches on draft day, imagine a spectrum. On the left end is a GM-centric model where the head coach has little to no input. On the right end is a Head Coach-centric model where his decisions are final.

Most teams are in the middle of the spectrum, but they definitely lean more toward one end or the other.

Going into this Draft, here are the head coaches with the most authority, in our view (and in no particular order):

Bill Belichick, Patriots. Full, undiluted authority. The NFL’s version of a combo King-Pope, rolled into one. Perceived ultimate power and infallibility (emphasis on ‘perceived’).

Bill O’Brien, Texans. The last season was Shakespearean; O’Brien somehow purged anyone with any power and left himself standing. Of course, he learned some tricks from the King-Pope in New England, so this isn’t surprising.

Jon Gruden, Raiders. Yes, GM Mike Mayock is a strong personality who knows players, but make no mistake, it’s all Gruden’s show. Gruden has a very specific vision, and no one is going to get in his way as he tries to implement it.

Sean Payton, Saints. The Saints have a GM in Mickey Loomis, but Payton has the juice to come up with the vision and the pull to get the pieces he wants. It was Payton that picked up Taysom Hill, and it was his vision to turn Hill into a valuable asset in all phases of the game.

Matt Rhule, Panthers. Rhule would not have taken the job unless he was given full authority, and notwithstanding GM Marty Hurney’s title, Rhule is going to call every shot from here on out. He’s a proven program builder, and that’s the reason successful hedge fund trader and Panthers owner David Tepper wanted Rhule in the first place. Tepper’s a Wall Street expert when it comes to assessing financial risk, and he’s putting his chips on Rhule. Rhule’s got a smidgen of NFL experience, but his virgin tour as an NFL head coach is starting in the league’s toughest division.

Andy Reid’s Performance Was Poor Notwithstanding the Historic Victory

By HCR Staff | Jan. 13, 2020

Even though the Kansas City Chiefs rallied for an historic win at home against the Houston Texans, Kansas City head coach Andy Reid performed poorly.

We think even he would agree with this assessment.

Coming off bye weeks, Reid is among the best in NFL history. His teams usually are sharp and buttoned up. But yesterday, they were anything but. Absent a boneheaded decision by Texans head coach Bill O’Brien in calling for a fake punt ahead 24-7 early in the second quarter, Reid was headed for another disappointing playoff defeat.

The Chiefs let the Texans race out to a 24-0 lead, and nearly all of it was due to unfocused play by the Chiefs.

On defense, they blew a coverage and gave up a 54-yard TD play to Texans wide receiver Kenny Stills.

They followed that up with allowing a punt block that was returned for a TD. Then they fumbled a kickoff return that led to another TD.

That’s not the type of play that Reid’s used to coming off a bye week. Down 24-0, Reid didn’t have any answers…until O’Brien chipped in with his own mistakes.

Reid came into the game with a postseason winning percentage of 46 percent–far below his regular season winning percentage of 62 percent. That kind of record won’t help any future Hall of Fame candidacy. Next week, he has another home game for a trip to the Super Bowl against a number six seed playing its third consecutive road game. Reid has a team loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, a true home field advantage, and strong incentive to win next week. We expect to see a better performance from him because yesterday, we just didn’t get it.

Epic Malpractice by Houston Texans Head Coach Bill O’Brien Leads to Historic Defeat

By HCR Staff | Jan. 13, 2020

We don’t take any joy in writing this, and we certainly didn’t take any joy in watching it. At HCR, we want to watch good football, and head coaches showing off their strategic chops.

But the effort by Texans head coach Bill O’Brien has to be called out. In our view, his decision-making amounted to coaching malpractice–if he were a surgeon, his license would be pulled pronto.

The Texans jumped out to a quick, first quarter 24-0 lead at KC, silencing the entire Arrowhead Stadium crowd. That’s a hard thing to do, but O’Brien’s squad managed to do it.

At this juncture, O’Brien has achieved head coach nirvana–he’s in control of the momentum and his team’s confidence level is sky high. Momentum and confidence are the keys to every game, and when you have it, Rule Number One is to not affirmatively do anything to screw that up.

In short, as a head coach, you should never make a decision that harms your own team. Pretty simple, right?

Apparently, it isn’t that simple.

Ahead 24-7 early into the second quarter, and facing a 4th and 4 from his own 31, O’Brien approved a fake punt call. Generally, teams that are in control of momentum and confidence don’t pull fake punts deep in their own end because it can cause a loss of momentum and confidence. In O’Brien’s universe, however, momentum and confidence apparently have no value.

The fake punt failed. The momentum shifted, the Texans lost confidence, and proceeded to give up 34 more unanswered points from that point on.

Bill O’Brien turned a 24-7 lead, into an historic Texans loss. The Chiefs became the first team in NFL history to trail by more than 20 points and win by more than 20 in playoff history.

None of that is possible unless there is egregious human error.

We really don’t try to be hard on coaches, but we can only call it as we see it. If Bill O’Brien were the owner of the Texans, and he had to watch his head coach make this decision, we’re pretty sure O’Brien would feel the same way we do.

After the game, O’Brien said that while a 24-0 lead was good, he felt it would not be good enough against the high powered Chiefs.

We don’t buy that. That was spin. He just blew it.

He harmed his own team. Punting in that situation wasn’t even a tough call.

He made a ludicrously poor decision that no amount of spin can cover.

What To Watch For in the Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Divisional Game

By HCR Staff | Jan. 12, 2020

Here’s what we’re keeping an eye out for in this game.

Does former New England Patriots defensive Romeo Crennel copy the Pats’ 2018 blueprint against the Chiefs? In last season’s AFC Championship Game, the Patriots had a lot of success in the first half of the game slowing down Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Current Texans DC Romeo Crennel has a long and strong Patriots background, and we have a feeling he’s spent some time studying last season’s AFC Championship game and Bill Belichick’s defensive game plan. The Patriots were able to slow down Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce–will Crennel double him and force the action to other options?

Can the Chiefs get pressure rushing four? We think Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo would prefer dropping seven into coverage, but that only works if the Chiefs can get pressure upfront rushing only four people. The Chiefs defense over the past month has been playing much better, and they do have talent on the DL, led by Chris Jones. If the Chiefs can do this, it could be a long day for Texans QB DeShaun Watson.

Andy Reid’s clock management in a close game. With or without a Super Bowl, Andy Reid is going to be under serious consideration for the NFL Hall of Fame. However, if he’s had one blind spot in his career, it’s his clock management in close games. Icing playoff games hasn’t been his forte. We’ll see if this improves tomorrow.

NFL Week 14 Monday Coaching Observations

By HCR Staff | Dec. 9, 2019

Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll’s offensive game plan was a dud. Sunday’s home game against the Baltimore Ravens for the Bills was the biggest in years, and it offered them a chance to notch a double-digit win total for the first time since 1999. Expectations were high, and we were excited to see how the Bills would attack the game. Offensively, and given the Ravens’ struggles against the run in their home victory against the 49ers, we fully expected the Bills one-two running back punch of Frank Gore and Devin Singletary to be featured prominently. We were wrong. Very, very wrong. Instead, Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll put the game in quarterback Josh Allen’s hands, to disastrous results. For whatever reason, Daboll was not patient with the running game, even though there were moments of obvious success against the Ravens on the ground. The Bills have a roster full of talented and ascending young players, and we felt they were well-positioned to win this game against the Ravens. However, the offensive game plan was subpar, and we feel integral to their loss.

The Green Bay Packers secured a victory against the Washington Redskins, but it wasn’t easy and it wasn’t pretty, as Packers head coach Matt LaFleur was outcoached by Redskins interim head coach Bill Callahan. The Packers may be leading the NFC North at the moment, but in our view, they’re not a real threat to win the NFC. Matt LaFleur may have 10 wins in his rookie season, but he still has a long way to go as a head coach. That’s okay, as he’s never been a head coach before, and with more repetitions, he may get much better. In this game, however, he was outclassed by Bill Callahan. Strategically, Callahan has done two things very well. First, he’s simplified every offensive game plan. In short, he’s decided to do fewer things, but do those things well. He’s largely succeeded, as Washington has been competitive in nearly every game since he’s taken over. Second, he’s emphasized the running game, and this has served to shorten the game for Washington, and shorten possessions for their opponents. Defensive coordinator Greg Manusky had a terrific game plan yesterday as well. Washington ran a very disciplined pass rush against Packers QB Aaron Rodgers–they never got too hard up field, and largely succeeded in keeping Rodgers in the pocket, where he showed impatience and irritability because he couldn’t get outside.

San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan and New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton demonstrated yesterday that when offenses are operating at a high-tempo, there is not much defensive coordinators can do. Going into yesterday’s game, 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh and Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen had received a lot of attention this year for their work. No matter how good they might have been prior to yesterday’s game, however, both had their defenses undressed. The defensive performances were completely inept, and much of it was due to the quick tempo displayed by the offenses. Shanahan and Payton are among the elite playcallers in the game, and one of the reasons why is because the playcalls tend to come in quickly. They are decisive and bold–there isn’t much hesitation. That decisiveness makes it difficult at times for defensive coordinators to adjust.

We’ve been tough on Denver Broncos rookie offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello, but yesterday’s effort against the Houston Texans was masterful. The Broncos completely decimated the Texans on their home turf yesterday, and much of the credit goes to Broncos offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello. Scangarello finally has the Broncos offense operating at a higher tempo. The Broncos seemed quicker out of the huddle yesterday, and their energy level on offense was as high as we’ve seen it all year. Rookie offensive coordinators are no different than rookie players–everyone needs additional repetitions in order to get better. Perhaps that’s all Scangarello needed.

Alternatively, Texans head coach Bill O’Brien failed miserably at avoiding the big game let down. In Week 13, the Texans scored a huge home victory against the New England Patriots in primetime. In Week 14, they were poised to maintain distance in the AFC South race as they were hosting a losing Broncos team. The biggest issue, in our view, confronting O’Brien going into this week was to have his team take the Broncos just as seriously as they took the Patriots. After all, O’Brien spent a number of years in New England under Bill Belichick, and he surely has seen Belichick be sensitive to this issue. Well, O’Brien didn’t pass the test. It seemed as if he posted all the glowing reviews from national media about the Texans after their victory over the Patriots on their locker room wall. The Texans simply didn’t show up in this game, and that is a reflection of coaching.

Every door in the Jacksonville Jaguars organization now has an EXIT sign on it, and it isn’t pretty. Yes, the Jaguars have had a tough season. And yes, they no longer are relevant. However, when you’re facing a losing team that is traveling 3000 miles to play you at home, mustering a professional effort shouldn’t be that hard. The entire Jaguars organization embarrassed themselves yesterday, and the responsibility lies with owner Shad Khan, general managers Tom Coughlin and David Caldwell, and head coach Doug Marrone. We simply didn’t see much effort or pride.

Setting aside the officiating blunders, the Patriots had opportunities to beat the Kansas City Chiefs yesterday, but they simply weren’t good enough. The Patriots simply can’t score in the red zone. They also can’t score, on offense, outside of the red zone. The reason isn’t coaching, and the reason isn’t lack of effort, The reason is Bill Belichick’s failure as a general manager. He simply left the cupboard bare on offense. The Patriots don’t have any explosion on offense, and it’s simply a talent issue. It’s a shame, because the defense is good enough to win a Super Bowl. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is trying, but there’s only so much scheming you can do to cover up the lack of physical talent. Going forward, the best the Patriots can do on offense is to maintain ball security, and convert any short fields the defense gives them.

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