Head Coach Ranking

Why Bill O’Brien’s Tenure At The Texans Is Over

By HCR Staff | October 6, 2020

Four AFC South division titles in six years is pretty darn good, so why did Houston Texans owner Cal McNair terminate head coach Bill O’Brien?

We’ve got 3 good reasons.

Reason #1 – “Billy O” Is A Hothead.  While his nickname gives off the vibe that he’s a genial and jolly Irishman, O’Brien actually is, in our view, a hotheaded drama queen.  And it’s always the same angle with him – drama created around his anger to show that he’s the man, he’s in charge and he has no problem publicly trying to display and exert his dominion over you.  Years ago, he had a nationally televised sideline ‘blowup’ with Patriots QB Tom Brady.  That episode made O’Brien, and we suspect, he knew it. 

The narrative was that he’s a fiery coach and unafraid to check the superstars.  The narrative worked for him, and resulted in head coaching opportunities.  The biggest problem with this approach is that he simply wears people out.  Coming in day after day to a facility to work with that type of personality is exhausting, and the atmosphere that’s created simply drains the life out of people.  Football is hard enough, but it’s far too much to add emotional instability to the mix.  If you win big, it’ll be tolerated, but if you don’t, and simply hang around under the .500 basket all day, it won’t.

Reason #2 – The Offensive Xs & Os From O’Brien Were Overrated.  O’Brien worked with Patriots QB Tom Brady, and the narrative has been that O’Brien was responsible for the Patriots’ magic on offense during his tenure.  Ok, let’s assume that’s true for the sake of discussion.  So what of the Texans then?  From where we sit, the Texans’ offense was to sit back and watch QB Deshaun Watson do something magical – no real innovation with the Xs & Os from O’Brien.  No one would call what the Texans put out there on offense ‘surgical.’ 

When one compares what we’re seeing with Sean McVay and Matt LaFleur, against what we see from the Texans, the difference is dramatic.  Watch how the Rams and Packers approach the line of scrimmage on offense, and then watch the Texans.  It’s night and day – the Texans don’t play with any consistent pace or rhythm.  Instead, it’s organized helter skelter. 

Here’s another example: watch Matt Rhule’s Carolina Panthers.  Again, greater discipline, attention to detail.  O’Brien simply was being left behind from a coaching standpoint.

Reason #3 – He Was A Lousy GM.  Every head coach likes authority, and we get it: if they’re responsible for the ultimate product, perhaps they should also be in charge of the entire process.  Plus, O’Brien was a reasonably successful college head coach, where he was responsible for the entire process.  At the NFL level, however, O’Brien simply got over his skis as a GM; he simply didn’t have the feel or experience for the role.  Prudence would have had him bring in an experienced former GM to guide him – instead, he brought in a former team chaplain.  That’s just ludicrous (and owner Cal McNair deserves plenty of blame here for allowing it to happen). 

Now the Texans are left with some massive contracts they can’t get out of for a while, and no draft capital.  The current roster lacks dynamic players as well.  This one’s a long rebuild, and that’s not even taking into consideration the issue of what to do with the former team chaplain that O’Brien’s left behind.

Bill O’Brien will re-surface, as his 4 division titles have some currency.  But if he’s going to be successful again, he’s going to have to make some adjustments to his own process.  O’Brien’s no dummy, so we think he can rehabilitate himself and have success in the future.

NFL Head Coaches With The Most Authority On Draft Day

By HCR Staff | April 23, 2020

Draft day dynamics differ from team to team, and from a business perspective, it’s fascinating to watch how differently each organization operates.

Winning formulas have differed over the years; we’ve had dynasties where the general manager makes every decision (e.g., Al Davis and the Raiders), and we’ve had dynasties where the head coach makes every decision (e.g., Bill Walsh and the 49ers).

And we’ve had other successful organizations where the head coach and general manager shared decision-making responsibilities. (e.g., Tony Dungy & Bill Polian with the Indianapolis Colts).

No one has a monopoly on good ideas when it comes to operational structure, and in our view, it all comes down to the talent and personality (and ego) of the individuals involved.  

Team owner preference plays an important role in determining the organizational and decision-making structure of a team.  In the old NFL, owners were expected to simply write the checks and stay out of the way.  It’s not that way anymore as the modern owner, with greater frequency, comes from the corporate world, and they often bring their own bag of tricks and beliefs regarding organizational structure.

So as we analyze the input of head coaches on draft day, imagine a spectrum.  On the left end is a GM-centric model where the head coach has little to no input.  On the right end is a Head Coach-centric model where his decisions are final.

Most teams are in the middle of the spectrum, but they definitely lean more toward one end or the other.

Going into this Draft, here are the head coaches with the most authority, in our view (and in no particular order):

Bill Belichick, Patriots.  Full, undiluted authority.  The NFL’s version of a combo King-Pope, rolled into one.  Perceived ultimate power and infallibility (emphasis on ‘perceived’).

Bill O’Brien, Texans.  The last season was Shakespearean; O’Brien somehow purged anyone with any power and left himself standing.  Of course, he learned some tricks from the King-Pope in New England, so this isn’t surprising. 

Jon Gruden, Raiders.  Yes, GM Mike Mayock is a strong personality who knows players, but make no mistake, it’s all Gruden’s show.  Gruden has a very specific vision, and no one is going to get in his way as he tries to implement it.  

Sean Payton, Saints.    The Saints have a GM in Mickey Loomis, but Payton has the juice to come up with the vision and the pull to get the pieces he wants.  It was Payton that picked up Taysom Hill, and it was his vision to turn Hill into a valuable asset in all phases of the game.  

Matt Rhule, Panthers.  Rhule would not have taken the job unless he was given full authority, and notwithstanding GM Marty Hurney’s title, Rhule is going to call every shot from here on out.  He’s a proven program builder, and that’s the reason successful hedge fund trader and Panthers owner David Tepper wanted Rhule in the first place.  Tepper’s a Wall Street expert when it comes to assessing financial risk, and he’s putting his chips on Rhule.  Rhule’s got a smidgen of NFL experience, but his virgin tour as an NFL head coach is starting in the league’s toughest division.

Andy Reid’s Performance Was Poor Notwithstanding the Historic Victory

By HCR Staff | Jan. 13, 2020

Even though the Kansas City Chiefs rallied for an historic win at home against the Houston Texans, Kansas City head coach Andy Reid performed poorly.

We think even he would agree with this assessment.

Coming off bye weeks, Reid is among the best in NFL history. His teams usually are sharp and buttoned up. But yesterday, they were anything but. Absent a boneheaded decision by Texans head coach Bill O’Brien in calling for a fake punt ahead 24-7 early in the second quarter, Reid was headed for another disappointing playoff defeat.

The Chiefs let the Texans race out to a 24-0 lead, and nearly all of it was due to unfocused play by the Chiefs.

On defense, they blew a coverage and gave up a 54-yard TD play to Texans wide receiver Kenny Stills.

They followed that up with allowing a punt block that was returned for a TD. Then they fumbled a kickoff return that led to another TD.

That’s not the type of play that Reid’s used to coming off a bye week. Down 24-0, Reid didn’t have any answers…until O’Brien chipped in with his own mistakes.

Reid came into the game with a postseason winning percentage of 46 percent–far below his regular season winning percentage of 62 percent. That kind of record won’t help any future Hall of Fame candidacy. Next week, he has another home game for a trip to the Super Bowl against a number six seed playing its third consecutive road game. Reid has a team loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, a true home field advantage, and strong incentive to win next week. We expect to see a better performance from him because yesterday, we just didn’t get it.

Epic Malpractice by Houston Texans Head Coach Bill O’Brien Leads to Historic Defeat

By HCR Staff | Jan. 13, 2020

We don’t take any joy in writing this, and we certainly didn’t take any joy in watching it. At HCR, we want to watch good football, and head coaches showing off their strategic chops.

But the effort by Texans head coach Bill O’Brien has to be called out. In our view, his decision-making amounted to coaching malpractice–if he were a surgeon, his license would be pulled pronto.

The Texans jumped out to a quick, first quarter 24-0 lead at KC, silencing the entire Arrowhead Stadium crowd. That’s a hard thing to do, but O’Brien’s squad managed to do it.

At this juncture, O’Brien has achieved head coach nirvana–he’s in control of the momentum and his team’s confidence level is sky high. Momentum and confidence are the keys to every game, and when you have it, Rule Number One is to not affirmatively do anything to screw that up. 

In short, as a head coach, you should never make a decision that harms your own team. Pretty simple, right?

Apparently, it isn’t that simple. 

Ahead 24-7 early into the second quarter, and facing a 4th and 4 from his own 31, O’Brien approved a fake punt call. Generally, teams that are in control of momentum and confidence don’t pull fake punts deep in their own end because it can cause a loss of momentum and confidence. In O’Brien’s universe, however, momentum and confidence apparently have no value.

The fake punt failed. The momentum shifted, the Texans lost confidence, and proceeded to give up 34 more unanswered points from that point on.

Bill O’Brien turned a 24-7 lead, into an historic Texans loss. The Chiefs became the first team in NFL history to trail by more than 20 points and win by more than 20 in playoff history.

None of that is possible unless there is egregious human error.

We really don’t try to be hard on coaches, but we can only call it as we see it. If Bill O’Brien were the owner of the Texans, and he had to watch his head coach make this decision, we’re pretty sure O’Brien would feel the same way we do.

After the game, O’Brien said that while a 24-0 lead was good, he felt it would not be good enough against the high powered Chiefs.  

We don’t buy that. That was spin. He just blew it.

He harmed his own team. Punting in that situation wasn’t even a tough call.

He made a ludicrously poor decision that no amount of spin can cover.

What To Watch For in the Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Divisional Game

By HCR Staff | Jan. 12, 2020

Here’s what we’re keeping an eye out for in this game.

Does former New England Patriots defensive Romeo Crennel copy the Pats’ 2018 blueprint against the Chiefs? In last season’s AFC Championship Game, the Patriots had a lot of success in the first half of the game slowing down Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Current Texans DC Romeo Crennel has a long and strong Patriots background, and we have a feeling he’s spent some time studying last season’s AFC Championship game and Bill Belichick’s defensive game plan. The Patriots were able to slow down Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce–will Crennel double him and force the action to other options?

Can the Chiefs get pressure rushing four? We think Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo would prefer dropping seven into coverage, but that only works if the Chiefs can get pressure upfront rushing only four people. The Chiefs defense over the past month has been playing much better, and they do have talent on the DL, led by Chris Jones. If the Chiefs can do this, it could be a long day for Texans QB DeShaun Watson.

Andy Reid’s clock management in a close game. With or without a Super Bowl, Andy Reid is going to be under serious consideration for the NFL Hall of Fame. However, if he’s had one blind spot in his career, it’s his clock management in close games. Icing playoff games hasn’t been his forte. We’ll see if this improves tomorrow.