Detroit Lions Archives - Head Coach Ranking

Will Matt Patricia Survive Beyond 2020 as the Detroit Lions Head Coach?

By HCR Staff | Jan. 17, 2020

One narrative NFL media had fun with for a while was the relative failures of Bill Belichick disciples as NFL head coaches.

The first wave included Nick Saban (Miami Dolphins), Romeo Crennel (Kansas City Chiefs) and Eric Mangini (New York Jets and Cleveland Browns). Of that group, only Mangini led his team to a postseason appearance.

The second wave has had much more success. This wave includes Bill O’Brien (Houston Texans) and Mike Vrabel (Tennessee Titans), both of whom have made the playoffs. This wave also includes Brian Flores (Dolphins), who made a lot of progress this season with a team many expected would struggle to win one game.

The second wave also includes Matt Patricia of the Detroit Lions, who hasn’t appeared in the postseason yet, and already has been given what amounts to an ultimatum for 2020 by ownership.

But we think Patricia actually will surprise next season.

The Lions actually had tremendous momentum early in the season, and were poised to take the division lead with a win in their Week 6 game at Green Bay.

Two phantom “hands to the face” calls, however, led to a crushing 23-22 defeat, and the Lions never recovered, losing 10 of the next 11. That loss caused a tremendous loss of confidence and momentum, and a crush of injuries further derailed their entire season.

Here’s why we think the Lions will surprise next season.

First, Patricia will have a new defensive coordinator after releasing Paul Pasqualoni. Pasqualoni essentially gave Patricia his start, and has been a mentor to him. But over the course of the last two years, it became increasingly clear that the Lions were regressing defensively to an alarming degree. A change had to be made, and Patricia made it. New DC Cory Undlin and Patricia have familiarity, and he’ll bring a different energy with positive effect in our view.

Second, Patricia and GM Bob Quinn have turned over most of the roster and loaded it up with “their guys.” Many holdovers, while good players (such as safety Quandre Diggs), simply weren’t completely buying in to Patricia, and they had to go. It’s clear there was some dissension between the lockerroom and the staff, and that issue probably sucked some of Patricia’s time and energy.

Finally, quarterback Matt Stafford will be healthy. It appears he has chemistry with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, and the Lions have some nice young personnel. They now have some talented backs, rookie tight end T.J. Hockensen impressed, and the wide receivers unit can be elite. They just need Stafford healthy and averaging 28 plus points a game is well within range.

We predict Vegas will have the Lions at six for a win total. If that’s the number, we like the OVER based on what we know today.

Detroit Lions 31, Green Bay Packers 0 – Dec. 30, 2018

At Green Bay
1:00 p.m. ET
25 degrees/windy

TEAM	PLAY CALLING	PERSONNEL	GAME PLANNING	IN-GAME ADJ	CLOCK MGMT	HCR
DET	8	8	8	8	7	7.8
GB	5	7	7	6	7	6.4

Key Coaching Decision #1: (DET ball, leading 7-0 / fourth-and-3, GB 8 / 10:36 Q2)
• The Lions successfully executed a fake field goal when kicker Matt Prater received a shotgun snap and threw an 8-yard touchdown pass to tight end Levine Toilolo. A Prater extra point gave the Lions a two score, controlling lead.

Key Observations:
• The Lions win was their fourth consecutive victory over the Packers.

• Aaron Rodgers was sacked early in the second quarter and left the game due to a concussion. Off-season acquisition DeShone Kizer came in and finished 16 of 35 for 132 yards and an interception.

• The loss was the Packers’ ninth of the season and they ended 2018 with a 6-9-1 record. This was their second straight losing season.

• Wide receiver T.J. Jones had two receiving touchdowns for Detroit and fellow wide receiver Brandon Powell had six catches for 103 yards. They stepped up in the absence of wide receiver Kenny Golladay.

• The Packers were without wide receiver Davante Adams and running back Aaron Jones.

Minnesota Vikings 27, Detroit Lions 9 – Dec. 23, 2018

At Detroit
1:00 p.m. ET
Dome

TEAM	PLAY CALLING	PERSONNEL	GAME PLANNING	IN-GAME ADJ	CLOCK MGMT	HCR
MIN	7	8	7	7	8	7.4
DET	6	7	6	6	7	6.4

Key Coaching Decision #1: (DET ball, trailing 24-9 / fourth-and-3, DET 18 / 6:35 Q4)
• Down by two scores, the Lions decided to go for it despite being deep in their own territory. Matt Stafford dropped back and was sacked by Vikings linebacker Eric Wilson and the Vikings took over on downs.

Key Observations:

• Minnesota won a key game, but the coaching staff cannot be pleased with how they played in the first half. The Lions opened up a 9-0 lead and Minnesota looked to be in trouble, until the end of the first half. Kirk Cousins dropped back and threw a Hail Mary pass into the end zone that was caught by Kyle Rudolph to give Minnesota the lead at halftime.

• The Vikings defense played well and held Detroit to 223 yards of total offense, only 137 yards passing. The Lions were shutout in the second half and could only muster 74 yards of offense.

• Minnesota controls their playoff destiny and if they win next week against Chicago, they will clinch a spot in the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills 14, Detroit Lions 13 – Dec. 16, 2018

At Buffalo
1:00 p.m. ET
33 degrees

TEAM	PLAY CALLING	PERSONNEL	GAME PLANNING	IN-GAME ADJ	CLOCK MGMT	HCR
DET	6	7	7	7	7	6.8
BUF	7	8	7	8	8	7.6

Key Coaching Decision #1: (DET ball, leading 12-7 / PAT attempt / 3:46 Q2)
• Detroit missed a PAT on its first score of the game when a bad snap resulted in a botched kick. Rather than chase the points after a Zach Zenner TD run by attempting a two-point conversion, the Lions decided to kick a PAT to take a 13-7 advantage. They would not have an opportunity to make that point up again as they did not score another point, much less a touchdown.

Key Coaching Decision #2: (BUF ball, leading 14-13 / second-and-9, BUF 25 / 2:46 Q4)
• The Lions had already used two timeouts to this point in the game.
Rather than run the ball and force the Lions to use their third and final timeout, Buffalo decided to throw the ball. Josh Allen found rookie tight end Jason Croom for a 25-yard gain and a first down. This was a big play as it gave the Bills a new set of downs.

• An incompletion here would have stopped the clock and saved the Lions from having to use their third and final timeout. They could have used it had they stopped the Bills on third down and had plenty of time with relatively decent field position and the two-minute warning.

Key Coaching Decision #3: (BUF ball, leading 14-13 / fourth-and-1 / DET 41 / 1:50 Q4)
• The Bills locked up the victory when Josh Allen plunged ahead for a 2-yard gain on fourth down. The Lions were out of timeouts and the Bills ended the game by lining up in victory formation to finish out the game. Buffalo had the option to punt and pin the Lions back with no timeouts remaining. However, going for a fourth down conversion made sense considering Allen’s height as well as success in running the football.

Key Observations:
• The Lions were eliminated from the playoffs with the loss to the Bills.

• What made the victory somewhat surprising is that the Bills offense was without its two starting running backs, LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory, for the entirety of the game due to injury. They would later lose third-string running back Marcus Murphy in the first half.

• Josh Allen threw for 204 yards on 13 of 26 passing attempts, as well as a touchdown. He did not turn the ball over. His hard count on third-and-7 on the Detroit 47-yard line with 2:00 left forced Lions linebacker Jarrad Davis to jump offsides and make it third-and-short.

• Bills wide receiver Robert Foster has emerged as one of Allen’s favorite targets. He had four catches for 108 yards and a touchdown.

• Not to be outdone, Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay had 146 yards receiving. He was the main target for Matthew Stafford, who finished with 208 passing yards.

Detroit Lions 17, Arizona Cardinals 3 – Dec. 9, 2018

At Arizona
4:00 p.m. ET
Dome

TEAM	PLAY CALLING	PERSONNEL	GAME PLANNING	IN-GAME ADJ	CLOCK MGMT	HCR
DET	6	6	8	7	7	6.8
ARI	6	7	7	7	7	6.8

Key Observations:

• The only offensive touchdown in this game occurred with less than five minutes remaining in regulation. That is a credit to the defensive game planning of both coaches.

• With a quarterback as seasoned as Matt Stafford, it would be nice to see more offensive production than what was displayed in this game.

ABOUT HCR