Dirk Koetter Archives - Head Coach Ranking

Assessing the Eight NFL Head Coaches That Were Fired in 2018

By HCR Staff | Jan. 3, 2019

“Black Monday,” as they call it, is a sad day in the NFL. No one in the profession likes to see another coach lose his job. When an owner makes the decision to terminate a head coach, that decision has consequences far beyond the head coach. It affects a lot of families, and even the careers of many players, as those players’ styles of play may be particularly suited to that head coach. For each team hiring a new head coach, it is a good bet that nearly 60 percent of its roster will be turned over within the next two years.

Here is our assessment of each of the eight head coaches that were terminated in 2018:

Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns
Most coaches feel that Jackson is a good, experienced coach — deposed Cincinnati Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis went out of his way to extol Jackson’s virtues during his own final press conference. Our primary criticism of Jackson would be that he seems to have a penchant for creating drama whenever he receives some measure of authority. For example, when he was head coach of the Raiders, owner Al Davis passed away during Jackson’s tenure. As soon as that happened, Jackson went full “Al Haig” (for those readers under the age of 50, here’s the reference), and it was highly unbecoming. Over the last two years as head coach of the Browns, Jackson seemed to have a new gimmick every week. On one occasion, it was something about jumping into Lake Erie. On another occasion, it was about withholding the stripe decal for the players’ helmets until they accomplished something in training camp. If Jackson gets another opportunity to be a head coach, our advice would be to keep the focus on the game, as opposed to himself.

Conclusion: Turn down the drama, Hue.

Steve Wilks, Arizona Cardinals
We believe that every head coach, with few exceptions, should be given more than one year to show progress. Wilks confronted a series of obstacles that he did not create and had no control over (e.g., rookie quarterback, a general manager who was arrested and suspended, a rash of injuries, the installation of a new system that did not fit the existing personnel, etc). We obviously don’t know how Wilks would have done in a second year, but based on what we observed this year, he did appear to have a longer learning curve than others.

Conclusion: Just a few more years experience as a coordinatorbefore next head coaching job.

Vance Joseph, Denver Broncos
We definitely saw progress with Vance Joseph in 2018. In his rookie season, he made far too many errors and his team seemed unprepared on too many occasions. This year, however, we saw significant progress, and that did play out on the field as the Broncos were a tough out for some of the best teams in the league. Like many defensive-minded head coaches, however, Joseph struggled with his offensive choices. While he was shortening his learning curve as a head coach, however, for whatever reason, Broncos general manager John Elway didn’t want to wait any longer. Based on the progress that we saw, however, we believe Joseph still has room to grow as a head coach in the future.

Conclusion: Have better offensive coordinator choices available to you in your next head coaching opportunity.

Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We have watched Koetter as a head coach at Boise State, Arizona State, and now Tampa Bay. Our conclusion is that he is a good offensive coordinator.

Conclusion: Best of luck to you in your next offensive coordinator position.

Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers
We strongly believe McCarthy will be a success wherever he goes next. Clearly, the relationship between McCarthy and quarterback Aaron Rodgers had changed somewhat, and perhaps, they simply had been together too long. That doesn’t mean anyone did anything wrong, but sometimes in the coaching profession, the dynamic can get a bit stale and, like anything else, needs some new energy and refreshment.

Conclusion: Simple change of scenery is all that’s needed for McCarthy.

Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals
Marvin Lewis is a terrific coach and we believe he, too, will see success if he chooses to pursue being a head coach again. Our only constructive criticism would be that his teams tended to play tight and undisciplined at the same time. Having said that, it should be emphasized that Lewis had one of the most difficult head-coaching jobs in the league working for the Brown family in Cincinnati. This is an organization that lacks resources and just does not operate like most of the other franchises (and not in a good way). We feel Lewis did an unbelievable job covering up a lot of the ills in this organization. Finally, losing Jay Gruden as an offensive coordinator was a big blow to Lewis, and Gruden’s successors simply did not measure up.

Conclusion: Like McCarthy, Lewis will succeed with a change of scenery.

Todd Bowles, New York Jets
We believe Todd Bowles has significant promise as a head coach. However, he has a couple of prominent blind spots. The first is that, like many defensive-minded head coaches, he seems to lack a direction on what he really wants out of an offense, other than to simply not screw it up. The second blind spot would be his ability to evaluate players. There was a lot of hit-and-miss during his tenure as head coach, but we are sure much of that also was the responsibility of general manager Mike Maccagnan. If Bowles were paired with a more prominent general manager than Maccagnan, we believe he has a chance to be a winning head coach.

Conclusion: Get paired with a great general manager, and stay out of his way.

Adam Gase, Miami Dolphins
Obviously, Adam Gase is a good coach. Peyton Manning is as good an authority as any of us will ever see, and he is convinced of Gase’s ability. And that’s good enough for us. So what is the problem here? Based on some of the reports we’ve seen, Gase may have a problem relating to players of a certain ilk. That’s obviously not good. Another problem may not have been Gase’s fault at all: Simply put, he may have not been ready to be a head coach. Still only 40 years old, Gase had never been in a position where he was the ultimate decision-maker prior to the Dolphins job. All we know is that his Dolphins teams exhibited wild inconsistency and puzzling lack of energy at times. That is a reflection on the head coach.

Conclusion: With just a bit more maturity and better personal relationships, Gase will be a winning head coach.

Atlanta Falcons 34, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32 – Dec. 30, 2018

At Tampa Bay
1:00 p.m. ET
77 degrees, mostly cloudy

TEAM	PLAY CALLING	PERSONNEL	GAME PLANNING	IN-GAME ADJ	CLOCK MGMT	HCR
ATL	8	8	7	8	8	7.8
TB	6	8	8	6	7	7.0

Key Observations:

• Good game clock management by the Falcons on their final drive of the first half, resulting in a touchdown.

• Atlanta overcame a 17-point deficit in this game which is a credit to their in-game adjustments.

• Tampa Bay attempted 2-point conversions on consecutive touchdowns starting around 8:00 remaining in the fourth quarter. The first try brought the game to within three points and the second try aimed to extend the lead to three. Both were unsuccessful. Tampa Bay eventually lost on a last-second, game-winning field goal by the Falcons. Had Tampa Bay just stayed the course and kicked the extra points, they would have had a 3-point lead and gone to overtime. This was an excellent example of why 2-point conversions can have unforeseen consequences when attempted too early in the game. These decisions resulted in a lowering of the score to Tampa Bay’s play calling category, which otherwise was quite good on the day.

Dallas Cowboys 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Dec. 23, 2018

At Dallas
1:00 p.m. ET
Dome

TEAM	PLAY CALLING	PERSONNEL	GAME PLANNING	IN-GAME ADJ	CLOCK MGMT	HCR
TB	7	7	7	7	7	7.0
DAL	7	7	7	7	7	7.0

Key Coaching Decision #1: (TB ball, trailing 27-13 / fourth-and-2, TB 45 / 15:00 Q4)
Key Coaching Decision #2: (TB ball, trailing 27-13 / fourth-and-1, DAL 16 / 10:25 Q4)
Key Coaching Decision #3: (TB ball, trailing 27-13 / fourth-and-6, DAL 16 / 7:57 Q4)

• Dallas had just scored on two straight drives (10 points) and the Bucs needed to put some points on the board as the game had entered the fourth quarter. They would attempt three fourth-down conversions on the drive that took nearly 10 minutes off the clock.

• Fourth-Down Attempt #1: After the start of the fourth quarter, Jameis Winston threw a short pass to Jacquizz Rodgers for a five-yard gain on fourth down to extend a Bucs drive.

• Fourth-Down Attempt #2: Later, and in Cowboys territory, Winston plunged ahead for a 2-yard gain. However, a defensive delay of game penalty on DeMarcus Lawrence gave the Bucs another fourth down conversion on the drive.

• Fourth-Down Attempt #3: The Bucs’ luck ended on their third fourth-down conversion attempt as a Winston 5-yard scramble left them one yard short of a first down.

• The Bucs held the ball for 17 plays and 73 yards and took 9:35 off the clock and scored no points. This for the most part ended the Bucs’ chances of coming back in the game. They eventually would cut the Cowboys advantage to 27-20.

Key Observations:
• The Cowboys clinched the NFC East title with the win over Tampa Bay. It is their second division title in three years. Tampa Bay has now lost three straight games.

• Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston threw for 336 yards and one touchdown on 34 of 48 passing attempts. His efforts were much needed as the Bucs’ running game could not generate much (24 carries for 63 yards) against a stingy Cowboys run defense.

• Tampa Bay’s offense ran 25 more plays (75 to 50) than Dallas and enjoyed an advantage of more than 160 total yards (383 to 232) in the loss.

• Meanwhile, Dak Prescott threw for only 161 yards on 20 of 25 passing attempts. While the Cowboys offense struggled, running back Ezekiel Elliott, the NFL rushing leader, carried the load for the team and finished with 85 rushing yards on 18 carries and had five receptions for 24 yards.

• The Cowboys defensive front may be without one of their core players as defensive lineman Tyrone Crawford left the game on a stretcher and with his neck stabilized.

Baltimore Ravens 20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Dec. 16, 2018

At Baltimore
1:00 p.m. ET
43 degrees

TEAM	PLAY CALLING	PERSONNEL	GAME PLANNING	IN-GAME ADJ	CLOCK MGMT	HCR
TB	6	7	7	7	7	6.8
BAL	8	8	8	8	8	8.0

Key Coaching Decision #1: (BAL ball, trailing 6-0/ Fourth-and-1, TB 7/ 5:22 Q2)

• The Ravens faced a fourth down and decided to go for it. Lamar Jackson ran up the middle for a first down. The drive ended with a touchdown as WR Chris Moore took a shovel pass into the endzone.

Key Coaching Decision #2: (TB ball, trailing 20-12/ Fourth-and-4, BAL 33/ 7:12 Q4)

• The Bucs decided to go for it on fourth down in Ravens territory. Jameis Winston dropped back and threw an incomplete pass intended for WR Chris Godwin. Baltimore took over on downs and ran out the clock for the win.

Key Observations

• Baltimore controlled the game with a dominant running game as they had 242 yards on the ground. The Ravens had just as many rushing yards as the Bucs had total yards of offense.

• The Ravens defense again played great as they contained a potent Tampa offense and held them to one touchdown and only 12 points.

• Tampa Bay running back Peyton Barber ran the ball well against the Ravens top five run defense as he finished with 85 yards rushing and a touchdown on 19 carries.

• Lamar Jackson has now won four out of the five games he has started as quarterback of the Ravens. He continues to make huge plays on the ground and is improving as a passer. He will face his toughest challenge to date as the Ravens travel to play the Chargers next week.

New Orleans Saints 28, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Dec. 9, 2018

At Tampa Bay
1:00 p.m. ET

TEAM	PLAY CALLING	PERSONNEL	GAME PLANNING	IN-GAME ADJ	CLOCK MGMT	HCR
NO	7	7	7	8	7	7.2
TB	7	7	8	6	7	7.0

Key Observations:
• Buccaneers head coach Dirk Koetter actually had a very good game plan for this contest. Defensively, the Buccaneers knew the Saints lack a true vertical threat on offense, and as a consequence, the Buccaneers did a good job of crowding the line of scrimmage and taking away a lot of easy underneath throws that Saints quarterback Drew Brees typically makes. On offense, the Buccaneers continue to challenge the Saints corners and had success doing so in the first half.

• From last season until now, the Saints have done a good job of not only remaking their defense, but they also have improved on special teams. In this contest, Saints backup quarterback Taysom Hill’s blocked punt changed the momentum in this game. Since coming back from injury, Saints wide receiver and punt returner Tommy Lee Lewis also has had a favorable impact on special teams.

• Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston did a very good job today of keeping the Saints defense working hard to make plays. Winston has a lot of athleticism moving around in the pocket, but in the second half, the Saints made excellent defensive adjustments and the Buccaneers’ offense did not. While fans are familiar with the resiliency of the Saints’ offense, it is their defense that has been improving over the course of the last two seasons and now is among the league’s better units.

• Saints quarterback Drew Brees has struggled the last two weeks, and the principal reason is because defenses appeared to have crowded the shorter throws, and have challenged him to take deeper shots. That would be difficult for Brees considering the Saints lack a true vertical threat. It will be interesting to see how this plays out for the Saints in the postseason.

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