Head Coach Ranking

Jaguars Perform Poorly In Loss To Dolphins – It Wasn’t A Surprise

By HCR Staff | September 25, 2020

The Dolphins largely dominated the Jaguars last night in a 31-13 victory in Jacksonville, and it played out as we thought.

As we were evaluating the game prior to kickoff, we saw a Dolphins team that was highly competitive in 2 losses against quality competition (Patriots and Bills), with an experienced QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick, going against a very green Jaguars defense on a short week. 

And while it was a road game for the Dolphins, it was intrastate and in the same time zone obviously.  All of these variables added up positively for Dolphins head coach Brian Flores – at least that’s what we thought.

While the Jaguars didn’t play well, they don’t have to despair.  They displayed a lot of athleticism and talent, and they’re going to generally be a harder out for teams than what’s indicated on paper.

As the Jaguars plan ahead for the future, all eyes are on QB Gardner Minshew and his ceiling.  We see him as a younger version of the Dolphins’ Fitzpatrick.  Good enough to be a spot starter for a long time, but we don’t see him as the kind of talent that can elevate a franchise to consistent high level contention.  This is a league with burgeoning young talents such as Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray and Josh Allen.  Is Minshew in this class?  We don’t think so.

Minshew is fairly accurate, passionate, competitive and has a good feel for the game.  But overall, he’s limited.  We see a quality backup, spot starter in the mold of Matt Schaub (who had an excellent career) and Fitzpatrick (he’s made over $70 million starting for 8 teams).  That’s good for Minshew and his finances, but should the Jaguars tie their future to him?

This is a franchise that may be in position to draft Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence, who possesses elite skills that Minshew doesn’t have. 

If the Jaguars are 2-6 at the season’s halfway point (provided we get there in 2020), it’ll be interesting to see how Jaguars brass approaches the second half of the season.

Brian Flores And His Dolphins In An Early Must Win Tilt Tonight Against Jacksonville

By HCR Staff | September 24, 2020

Brian Flores and his Dolphin team visit the Jaguars tonight in an early must-win game.  A loss would leave the Dolphins 0-3, and while we don’t see any AFC East team running away with the division, 0-3 is certainly a tough mental hole to climb out of.

The Dolphins haven’t played badly early season; yes, they’ve made mistakes, but nothing we would call egregious.  Their two losses happened to come against divisional foes, the Patriots and Bills, and both opponents have rugged defenses.  They were physical games – most divisional games are – but the Dolphins were in both until the end.

The Jaguars have played well too, and have surprised observers with their tenacity.  It’s a young team, but one that appears far more cohesive.  And head coach Doug Marrone simply looks more relaxed.  He’s out from under the Tom Coughlin shadow and he clearly is the person in charge now. 

In this matchup, we expect Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to play exceptionally well.  The Jaguars don’t mix it up much on defense, preferring instead to rely on speed and athleticism.  While they have young promising players in DE Josh Allen, DT Taven Bryan and LB Myles Jack, they’re still far from where they hope to be.  Fitzpatrick has had flashes in weeks 1 and 2 – both good and bad – but last week’s effective 4th quarter drive to pull the Dolphins ahead of the Bills showed us the rust is coming off his 2020 season.

Finally, while the Dolphins are the road team, it’s obviously a short trip without any time zone or turf change.  Flores, based on our prior HCR ratings, has been a slightly superior game manager than Marrone as well.

Consensus lines have the Dolphins +3.  We like that, but we also think the Dolphins win outright.

Conclusion: Miami Dolphins 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24.

Jaguars Finally Understanding How To Lose In Order To Win

By HCR Staff | September 4, 2020

Doug Marrone was elevated to Jaguars’ head coach in 2017, and in a magical inaugural campaign, he had the franchise 10 minutes away from its first Super Bowl appearance.  Even though the team succumbed to (another) ridiculous performance by Tom Brady in the AFC Championship tilt, the future looked exceedingly bright for the Jags.

The defense was full of young, talented players, and QB Blake Bortles appeared to finally justify his lofty draft position.

Since then, however, the Jags have imploded.  They’re 11-21, and have finished last in their division in 2018 & 2019.

And now the Jags have embarked on a campaign to essentially offload nearly all of the talent that played in that 2017 AFC Championship.

We’ve rarely witnessed this kind of dismantling in the modern NFL; sure, teams have had to re-tool, but that’s because, generally speaking, they’re looking to push out older veterans in favor of new talent.

The Jags, on the other hand, have been dealing away some of the best young talent in the game.  Cornerback Jalen Ramsey (age 25), DE Yannick Ngakoue (age 25), and cornerback AJ Bouye (age 29) have all been traded.  RB Leonard Fournette (age 25) was released. WR Allen Robinson (age 27) was allowed to walk in free agency.

What can explain this?

From our vantage point, it looks as if the chemistry in the locker room and all the way to the front office simply was toxic.  And if you have toxic chemistry, there isn’t going to be any trust, and without any trust, negative feelings have room to grow. 

The result is an entire organization with a rotten culture.

Who wants to go to work in that kind of environment?

Not many talented young players, that’s for sure.  Every NFL career is on the shorter side, and the thought of spending precious days of your youth driving into a bitter, dark professional environment simply isn’t appealing.

So who’s to blame, and is the current course a better one?

The blame goes to everyone at the top of the organizational chart: owner Shad Khan, former Executive VP of football operations Tom Coughlin, GM Dave Caldwell, and Marrone.  Each had their role, and it was decided that Coughlin would be fired for all their collective sins.   

So now the Jags look to be starting over.  They have a lot of young players who know nothing of past dysfunction.  That’s a start, and in our view, the right one.

However, it remains to be seen if Marrone and Caldwell should have been jettisoned as well.  Not many people in the business get the shelf life they’ve been given, particularly under the circumstances.  Marrone will be helped by Jay Gruden’s presence; he’s a veteran coordinator and a good one at that.  We aren’t the biggest fans of defensive coordinator Todd Wash, and we foresee a lot of early season miscues on that side of the ball.  Thankfully the scheme isn’t difficult to learn.

In the end though, we do agree with their current approach.  The entire locker room needed fumigating, but if progress isn’t noticeable by the end of the season, Marrone and Caldwell should be next to go.

Jacksonville Jaguars’ Reported Hire of Jay Gruden a Coup For Doug Marrone

By HCR Staff | Jan. 22, 2020

It’s being reported that the Jacksonville Jaguars will be hiring former Washington Redskins head coach Jay Gruden as offensive coordinator, replacing  John DeFilippo. If the reports are accurate, it’ll be a big coup for Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone.

While the Jaguars did get to an AFC Championship game under Marrone, the entirety of his tenure has been middling at best. Some may say he’s even underachieved significantly.

Marrone’s tenure is somewhat difficult to assess, however, and that’s largely due to the convoluted nature of their front office structure. At different points, different people seem to have been in command, ranging  from General Manager Dave Caldwell, to Marrone himself, and then former Executive Vice President Tom Coughlin.

After an incredibly poor 2019 season, owner Shad Khan terminated Coughlin. He’s kept Marrone and Caldwell, however, but it appears both are on one year leashes.

And that’s what makes getting a coordinator of Jay Gruden’s stature impressive.

Notwithstanding Gruden’s termination in Washington, we feel he’s an excellent coordinator. He had a very successful run in Cincinnati, and we believe he did reasonably well in Washington as head coach. He had to endure a completely dysfunctional ownership and front office, and an incredible rash of injuries.

Gruden is well aware that Marrone only has 2020 to extend his job, so for him to take on this challenge indicates he believes significant improvement is possible. We’re sure Gruden had other options (including joining his brother in Las Vegas).

Regardless, it’s a coup for Marrone, and for quarterbacks Gardner Minshew and Nick Foles (although Foles’ relationship with the Jaguars is tenuous). 

Are the Jacksonville Jaguars Setting the Table for Clemson Quarterback Trevor Lawrence?

By HCR Staff | Jan. 15, 2020

When the NFL awarded the city of Jacksonville an NFL franchise, it was fairly shocking. After all, the state of Florida already had two teams, and as a media market, Jacksonville is tiny versus its peers.

Since their founding, the Jaguars have had some good success, but continuous relevancy has been hard to come by, even in their own market. Consequently, the Jaguars have also become London’s de facto NFL team because the organization has signed up for the opportunity to extend their brand to a larger market.

One problem in the struggle for relevancy is the absence of a transcendent player. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey had the physical talent, but for whatever reason, he didn’t want to play there anymore. Running back Leonard Fournette also is a stellar talent, but nationally, still relatively unknown.

In looking at the Jaguars’ recent moves, however, we believe they’re positioning themselves for that transcendent player, and we believe they’re targeting Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence.

Lawrence, like Andrew Luck and John Elway before him, has the talent, results, and experience that NFL teams covet. And he already possesses star power, having played in consecutive College Football National Championship games. 

Whether he is successful or not in the long term remains to be seen, but all that matters right now is that he is perceived as a bona fide, next generation star.

He’s exactly what the Jaguars need.

How are the Jaguars positioning? Well, Tom Coughlin was terminated…and his position was not filled by anyone else. Next, head coach Doug Marrone and GM David Caldwell have contracts that extend only through 2021. We haven’t seen any reports of any extensions for either; absent that, letting both go after 2020 would be a liability easily absorbed by ownership.

The Jaguars also came to a “mutual agreement” with offensive coordinator John DeFilippo; the agreement would be that he leaves right now, even though he did a pretty good job under tough circumstances. DeFilippo had to run an offense with a depleted offensive line, no real talent at tight end, and a late round rookie QB in Gardner Minshew–who showed good progress.

Finally, the Jaguars most significant free agent acquisition in 2019 was QB Nick Foles. After the 2020 season, however, the Jaguars will be able to get out from under that contract more easily. 

Add it all up, it’s pretty clear Jaguars’ ownership can start the 2021 season with a new general manager, head coach, and star quarterback.

The Jaguars play in a tough AFC South, and they clearly are the fourth team in the division. But by being fourth, they may be well positioned in the 2021 Draft, with Lawrence the key prize.