Kansas City Chiefs Archives - Head Coach Ranking

Kyle Shanahan’s 2019 HCR Favors the San Francisco 49ers and Our Betting Algorithm Does Too

By HCR Staff | Jan. 31, 2020

Kyle Shanahan’s 2019 HCR of 7.9 finished tied for third (with Bill Belichick), and that was a fairly significant .6 edge over Andy Reid, who finished tied for sixth in our rankings.

Shanahan was the more consistent in-game strategist than Reid throughout the season, and this may manifest in key moments in Sunday’s Super Bowl.

For example, if San Francisco takes an early first quarter 7-0 lead, and Kansas City’s offense faces a long 4th and 1 on its own 45–still in the first quarter–does Reid punt, or does he attempt the fourth down conversion?

In our view, it’s not a debatable call, but as we’ve seen many times, head coaches can feel differently.

It’s these kinds of decisions that alter games, and we think they’re incredibly meaningful. That’s why we quantify this aspect of the game. Based on their respective HCR ratings, and how the spread interacts with our ratings, our proprietary betting algorithm recommends San Francisco on the money line and against the spread.

The numbers suggest that when it comes to decision-making, under game pressure, Shanahan is more reliable, at least in 2019.

Head Coach Ranking’s Super Bowl LIV Prediction and Analysis

By HCR Staff | Jan. 30, 2020

It’s an intriguing matchup this year, and one that may be heralding a new era in the NFL.

Both squads are relatively young, and could contend for quite some time…but that’s what was said about recent Super Bowl participants in the Los Angeles Rams, Atlanta Falcons, and Philadelphia Eagles.

Here’s our take on how Sunday will unfold.

The San Francisco 49ers have been the most consistent team in football in 2019. This team is literal inches away from playing for a perfect season on Sunday. Their three defeats came as a result of falling short of a first down at home against the Seattle Seahawks, a Justin Tucker overtime field goal in poor weather, and a last second Falcons touchdown that barely broke the plane of the goalline.

Kyle Shanahan is a better in-game strategist than Andy Reid. Reid is a proven Hall of Fame-caliber program builder, but he does struggle with his in-game decision-making at times. Shanahan is more consistent, but he’ll bungle one here or there (the regular season home loss vs. Seattle). The last time Reid was in the Super Bowl, he badly mismanaged the end-of-game clock scenario.

We like Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s Super Bowl experience. 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh is a rising talent, but he doesn’t have the Super Bowl experience that Spagnuolo has, and this could show up. Spagnuolo led the New York Giants’ victory over the New England Patriots in 2007, and we see a growing confidence with this Chiefs defense. So far, the 49ers’ interior offensive line has held up and played beyond their abilities, but we see Spagnuolo testing them on Sunday.

49ers GM John Lynch’s decision to pay kicker Robbie Gould may be the key. Gould held out this offseason and tried to force a trade to Chicago, but Lynch held firm and got the deal done for the tested, veteran kicker. Lynch probably felt the 49ers were going to be in a lot of contested, close games this year, and he would need a veteran kicker to perform. We see a close game on Sunday, and this business decision could prove wise.

The Chiefs may have the best screen game in the NFL, and if they hit a couple early, it may neutralize the 49ers rush effectively. If we were doing the game planning against the 49ers, we would emphasize the screen game early. If successfully executed early in the game, it may serve to cause a bit of hesitation among the 49ers front four for the rest of the game. We feel the Chiefs have to get the 49ers to respect the screens on first down–we’ll be watching for this.

HCR PREDICTION: SF 26-24.

AFC Championship Observations

By HCR Staff | Jan. 20, 2020

Congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs and their victory yesterday, sending them to their first Super Bowl in 50 years.

Here are our observations to the game.

The Chiefs have to start faster. With the victory, Andy Reid’s Conference Championship record improves to 2-5. In order to win the Super Bowl, however, we feel the Chiefs simply have to start faster. Too many times now Reid’s teams come out tight and sluggish in big games. They caught a break when Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien decided to run a terribly ill-advised fake punt that gave much needed momentum to the Chiefs, and in yesterday’s game, the Chiefs were able to come back against a tired Titans squad playing its fourth consecutive road game. Now the Chiefs have to play on a neutral field against a team that knows how to close out games–a faster start in quarter one will be very important.

The Chiefs defense is starting to believe. The Chiefs have some very talented players on this unit–it’s just taken some time to gel under defensive coordinator’s Steve Spagnuolo’s system. But that gelling is happening, and one can see the increased confidence level, as well as the smoother communication. Spagnuolo’s also won a Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator with the Giants, and in a one-game season, we are sure he is going to empty his playbook and feature an aggressive, attacking scheme.

Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy’s play calling has been superb. Bienemy played offense as a player, and he isn’t afraid of players making mistakes–he coaches with aggression. He knows he has supremely unique talents in quarterback Patrick Mahomes and wide receiver Tyreek Hill, so he doesn’t take the ball out of their hands. Hill will get his looks running and catching, no matter the coverage. Win or lose on Super Bowl Sunday, we like this philosophy–put the ball in the hands of your best players.

What to Watch For: AFC Championship Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

By HCR Staff | Jan. 18, 2020

To some degree, this matchup reminds us of the 2003 AFC Championship, when the high flying Indianapolis Colts visited the New England Patriots. The Colts were considered the finesse team, and the Patriots the physical team. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel took part in that game as well. Like this year’s Titans, the Patriots were a good, downhill running team.

Here’s what we’ll be watching.

Tennessee’s offensive line vs Kansas City’s front seven. The Titans’ OL is in an historic groove right now, and we don’t see Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith deviating too much from what’s worked for them thus far in the playoffs. Smith is going to run the ball, and he’ll want to see if the Chiefs smallish linebackers hold up–they’re not thumpers, but they’ll have to be willing. As for Kansas City, much will depend on whether defensive lineman Chris Jones plays, and they’ll have to get good rotational play from Derrick Nnadi, Mike Pennel and Xavier Williams.

Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s use of tight ends Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser. Smith and Firkser make for a very clutch and talented duo; not household names, but highly productive and physical. Against the Patriots, Firkser had grabs in key situations, and it’s obvious Tannehill trusts him. Smith is a physical specimen who plays to the whistle on every play; he’s a rare TE homerun hitter. Everyone anticipates the Chiefs loading the box to take away running back Derrick Henry, so Tannehill is going to have to make a few more plays in the pass game than he did in their earlier playoff wins.

Titans kicker Greg Joseph. Joseph hasn’t been called on at all in the playoffs, but we think he’s going to be called upon at least twice in this game. How clutch is he? None of us know. The difficulty for Joseph is that Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place for kickers, especially in the winter months.

Andy Reid’s Performance Was Poor Notwithstanding the Historic Victory

By HCR Staff | Jan. 13, 2020

Even though the Kansas City Chiefs rallied for an historic win at home against the Houston Texans, Kansas City head coach Andy Reid performed poorly.

We think even he would agree with this assessment.

Coming off bye weeks, Reid is among the best in NFL history. His teams usually are sharp and buttoned up. But yesterday, they were anything but. Absent a boneheaded decision by Texans head coach Bill O’Brien in calling for a fake punt ahead 24-7 early in the second quarter, Reid was headed for another disappointing playoff defeat.

The Chiefs let the Texans race out to a 24-0 lead, and nearly all of it was due to unfocused play by the Chiefs.

On defense, they blew a coverage and gave up a 54-yard TD play to Texans wide receiver Kenny Stills.

They followed that up with allowing a punt block that was returned for a TD. Then they fumbled a kickoff return that led to another TD.

That’s not the type of play that Reid’s used to coming off a bye week. Down 24-0, Reid didn’t have any answers…until O’Brien chipped in with his own mistakes.

Reid came into the game with a postseason winning percentage of 46 percent–far below his regular season winning percentage of 62 percent. That kind of record won’t help any future Hall of Fame candidacy. Next week, he has another home game for a trip to the Super Bowl against a number six seed playing its third consecutive road game. Reid has a team loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, a true home field advantage, and strong incentive to win next week. We expect to see a better performance from him because yesterday, we just didn’t get it.

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