Head Coach Ranking

Early Storylines for the Four Possible Super Bowl LIII Matchups

By Don Banks | Jan. 18, 2019

As would seem to logically follow when you have the two top seeds in each conference squaring off on Championship Sunday, a glamor Super Bowl matchup is already assured. Not to look past the two marquee showdowns that will unfold in New Orleans and Kansas City on Sunday, but let’s take a first, semi-deep dive into the storylines and pre-game angles that await two weeks worth of exploration and dissection in Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta:

Chiefs vs. Rams

This has to be the Super pairing that the entire football world (outside of New England and New Orleans) is rooting for, a rematch of that epic 54-51 instant classic Monday-night shootout in the Los Angeles Coliseum in Week 11 — won by the Rams. That was first game in NFL history where both teams topped 50 points, and this meeting would pit two of the youngest quarterbacks to ever start a Super Bowl, the Chiefs’ 23-year-old Patrick Mahomes and the Rams’ 24-year-old Jared Goff.

The L.A. coaching plot line would be interesting as well, with Sean McVay leading the Rams, and Kansas City’s Andy Reid having grown up in Los Angeles, often frequenting the Coliseum in childhood (including this appearance in a Punt, Pass & Kick competition). It also would be the first Super Bowl matchup to feature two teams in the NFL’s West divisions since Seattle throttled Denver five years ago. And lastly, Chiefs receiver Sammy Watkins and Rams cornerback Marcus Peters joined their new clubs last offseason, after previously playing for the opposite team in 2017.

Patriots vs. Saints

Sure, we’d get the headline collision of two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Drew Brees, and that’s reason enough to hope for this matchup. But it’d also be another Bill Parcells Coaching Tree Bowl, with Bill Belichick and Sean Payton matching wits on the sideline. If the Saints won, Payton would become the third branch of the Parcells tree to win at least two Super Bowl rings, joining Belichick and former Giants coach Tom Coughlin.

The Patriots and their fans will always have a soft spot for New Orleans in their hearts, since they won their first Super Bowl in the Superdome, upsetting the Rams, in February 2002. And the two franchises could commiserate in their anti-Roger Goodell stances of yesteryear, believing their Bounty-gate and Deflate-gate scandals were largely creations of the league office. In addition, both clubs gave up on receiver Brandin Cooks after recent seasons, and Saints tight end Ben Watson, who is retiring after this year, was the Patriots’ 2004 first-round draft pick. If there’s anything worse than having the Saints use the facilities of their NFC South rival Falcons during Super Bowl week, it’d be the Patriots hanging around Atlanta, reminding everyone about that 28-3 blown lead in Houston two years ago.

Saints vs. Chiefs

For starters, having the two top seeds face off in the Super Bowl for the fifth time in six years is a habit that we could get used to. With their high-octane offenses and adept play-calling by head coaches Sean Payton and Andy Reid, we might be in for one of the highest-scoring Super Bowls of all time. Not to overlook a pair of defenses that have come up big so far in the playoffs.

Both the quarterbacks — Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes — are Texas kids who very nearly became teammates in New Orleans. The Saints were thinking about drafting Mahomes in 2017 at No. 11 as Brees’ successor when the Chiefs traded up to No. 10 to nab him.

And let’s not forget the dapper dresser and big talker who was Hank Stram, the coach who led the Chiefs to their only Super Bowl win in January 1970 — at New Orleans’ Tulane Stadium, no less. After 15 years in Kansas City, Stram later coached the Saints for two dismal seasons (1976-77), losing more than his share and never coming close to reproducing his success in Kansas City.

Rams vs. Patriots

This is the only Super Bowl rematch we can get, but what a doozy it is. New England logged one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history in beating the St. Louis Rams in New Orleans 17 years ago, launching the Patriots dynasty and the Tom Brady era that still rolls on today. And can we please hear the “Beat L.A.’’ chant ring out in Boston one more time, after the Red Sox bested the Dodgers in October and the Patriots embarrassed the Chargers in last week’s AFC Divisional round?

The coaching matchup of veteran defensive genius (Belichick) versus youthful offensive genius (McVay) would be beyond intriguing. And the old-young quarterback pairing of Brady and Goff, just a couple of California kids from the Bay Area makes for fine fodder as well. It would also be the first Super Bowl since the Ravens-49ers pairing in the 2012 season without a No. 1 seed involved. Interestingly, a No. 2 versus No. 2 Super Bowl hasn’t ever happened before, since the NFL went to a 12-team field in 1990. And ex-Patriots Aqib Talib and Brandin Cooks now star for Los Angeles and might have something to say about what life is like playing for the dynasty in Foxboro.

AFC Championship Game Key Matchup: Patriots LB Coach Brian Flores vs. Chiefs QB Coach Mike Kafka

By HCR Staff | Jan. 17, 2019

When the Kansas Chiefs lost to the New England Patriots, 43-40, in Week 6, few people blamed it on Patrick Mahomes. The presumptive NFL MVP passed for 352 yards and four touchdowns in that game. However, Mahomes did throw two interceptions early in the contest, allowing the Patriots to jump out to a 24-9 halftime lead.

The Patriots defense showed Mahomes a variety of blitz packages and different looks in an effort to confuse the young quarterback. And it worked.

“They did what they always do, and that’s come out with unscouted looks, stuff they haven’t shown in weeks, maybe even years and then try to throw it on you and surprise you,” Mahomes said this week. “For us, it’s about finding ways to adjust to that as fast as possible and going out and having success and making those in-game adjustments in order to capitalize earlier in the game than we did last time.”

Helping Mahomes make those adjustments on Sunday, when these teams meet again in the AFC Championship Game, will be Chiefs quarterbacks coach Mike Kafka. While head coaches Andy Reid and Bill Belichick will lead the way for their respective teams, the coaching matchup between Kafka and Patriots defensive play-caller Brian Flores will be fun to watch.

Kafka, who was a backup quarterback with the Eagles under Reid, joined him in Kansas City last season. While Kliff Kingsbury has gotten plenty of mileage out of being Mahomes’ coach at Texas Tech – getting hired this week as the new Arizona Cardinals skipper – it’s really Kafka who deserves a good deal of credit for grooming the Chiefs’ All-Pro passer these last two seasons. Some people are already starting to mention Kafka as a future NFL head coach himself.

Flores, meanwhile, might be a head coach in a matter of days. He will reportedly land the vacant Miami Dolphins job once the Patriots’ playoff run is over.

Flores has been with the Patriots since 2004, starting as a scouting assistant and working his way up to linebackers coach. Belichick is the de facto defensive coordinator, but he turned over play-calling duties to Flores this season.

Mahomes looked solid in his NFL playoff debut last week against the Colts, but New England poses a much greater challenge. According to NFL.com, the Patriots are 8-0 against quarterbacks with one or fewer playoff starts since 2001, allowing just 56.9 completion percentage, 230 yards per game, only nine TD while intercepting 10 passes. Flores has played a part in that history and has certainly learned well from Belichick.

If Kafka can help Mahomes solve Flores and the Patriots’ defense, the Chiefs’ young quarterback could find himself one win away from doing something Patriots QB Tom Brady did 17 years ago: winning the Super Bowl in just his second NFL season.

Key Observations From the NFL’s Divisional Playoff Games

By HCR Staff | Jan. 14, 2019

We’re down to three games left in the 2018 NFL season – the conference championship games Sunday and then Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta on Feb. 3. As we prepare for Patriots-Chiefs and Rams-Saints next weekend, here are some key observations from the Divisional Playoffs:

• It was quickly pointed out that the four teams still alive in the playoffs just happen to be the top four offenses in the NFL in 2018. While that may be true, it was the traditional formula of running and defense that ruled the weekend. In the Chiefs’ win over Indianapolis, Damien Williams rushed for 129 yards while Patrick Mahomes had a rare sub-300-yard passing day. The Rams had two 100-yard rushers and held Ezekiel Elliott to 47 yards. Sony Michel rushed for 129 yards and three touchdowns for the Patriots, who held the Chargers to seven points in the first half. The Saints outrushed Philadelphia 137-49 and shutout the Eagles for the last 49 minutes of their game.

• Sean Payton is fearless. His two biggest playoff wins have included bold special teams plays: the fake punt in Sunday’s win over Philly, and the onside kick at the start of the second half that led to a win over the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV.

• When is the last time we had both conference championship games feature teams that played each other during the regular season’? New England beat the Chiefs in Week 6; New Orleans beat the Rams in Week 9.

• Both conference title games will feature Northern California QBs (Tom Brady, Jared Goff) vs. Texas QBs (Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees).

• On the day that Heisman Trophy winner and baseball draftee Kyler Murray must decide if he wants to enter the NFL Draft, it’s worth noting the baseball connection for three of the quarterbacks playing next weekend: While Mahomes and Goff are both sons of major league baseball players, Brady was drafted by the Montreal Expos.

• Some people still believe it’s not a wise move to use a first-round draft pick on a running back, but that line of thinking has been dispelled in recent years. Helping the case for first-round RBs: The Patriots, Saints and Rams all have running backs that were drafted in Round 1.

• When New England won the coin toss in their game against the chargers on Sunday, the Patriots elected to receive. That is very rare for a Bill Belichick-coached team. Obviously, Belichick knew what he was doing, as his team marched right down the field for a score.

• The drive of the weekend was the Saints’ go-ahead scoring drive in the third quarter against the Eagles. New Orleans went 92 yards on 18 plays, taking 11:29 off the clock. But it wasn’t the only long drive of the weekend. The Patriots and Rams also had multiple long drives to help them advance.

Kansas City Chiefs 35, Oakland Raiders 3 – Dec. 30, 2018

At Kansas City
4:25 p.m. ET
45 degrees

TEAM PLAY
CALLING		 PERSONNEL GAME
PLANNING		 IN-GAME
ADJ		 CLOCK
MGMT		 HCR
OAK 6 7 6 6 7 6.4
KC 8 8 8 8 8 8.0

Key Coaching Decision #1: (KC ball, leading 21-0 / fourth-and-1, OAK 1 / 5:49 Q2)
• Kansas City decided to go on fourth down at the Raiders 1-yard line. Oakland defense came up huge as they stopped Chiefs running back Damien Williams for no gain. Oakland took over on downs and had a great drive that ended with their only points of the game a 50-yard field goal by kicker Daniel Carlson.

Key Observations:
• Kansas City quarterback and MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes played a solid game with two touchdown passes and 281 yards through the air.

• Tyreek Hill had another explosive game for the Chiefs. He finished with five catches for 101 yards and two total touchdowns on the day. During the game he set the Kansas City single season receiving record with 1,455 yards.

• Oakland ran the ball well and finished with over 120 yards on the ground, but they could not overcome turning the ball over four times as the Chiefs cruised to an easy victory.

• The Chiefs move on to the playoffs, where they are the number one seed in the AFC; the Raiders move on to the NFL draft, where they have a boatload of picks at their disposal.

Seattle Seahawks 38, Kansas City Chiefs 31 – Dec. 23, 2018

At Seattle
8:20 p.m. ET
45 degrees, overcast

TEAM PLAY
CALLING		 PERSONNEL GAME
PLANNING		 IN-GAME
ADJ		 CLOCK
MGMT		 HCR
KC 8 8 7 8 7 7.6
SEA 9 9 9 7 7 8.2

Key Observations:
• Seahawks offensive line coach Tom Cable once again deserves a great deal of credit for the way the offensive line performed in this matchup. The Seahawks leaned heavily on running the ball through the middle of the defense. This complemented the play-action passing game and the offense was in a very good rhythm through the night.

• Kansas City displayed impressive play-calling as well. They appeared to key off the Seattle defensive personnel, and ran the ball more when linebacker Shaquem Griffin was in the game. They totaled 31 points in spite of two costly fumbles. The matchup was competitive, the Seahawks just gained an edge in most categories.

• Seattle’s defense deserves a great deal of credit as well. They consistently created pass pressure and confidently played zone as well as man-to-man coverage against the Chiefs renowned skill position group. The defensive philosophy certainly seems to be jelling with this new defensive group so credit to Seattle’s personnel.

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Headcoachranking.com assigns a grade to the in-game performance of NFL head coaches each week.  Our knowledgeable graders analyze each head coach’s performance in 5 key areas of decision making. After determining their “HCR” (Head Coach Ranking), we rank them from best to worst. HCR rankings are posted every Tuesday of the NFL season, and fans will be able to track each coach’s performance throughout the season.

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