Head Coach Ranking

Key Observations From the NFL’s Divisional Playoff Games

By HCR Staff | Jan. 14, 2019

We’re down to three games left in the 2018 NFL season – the conference championship games Sunday and then Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta on Feb. 3. As we prepare for Patriots-Chiefs and Rams-Saints next weekend, here are some key observations from the Divisional Playoffs:

• It was quickly pointed out that the four teams still alive in the playoffs just happen to be the top four offenses in the NFL in 2018. While that may be true, it was the traditional formula of running and defense that ruled the weekend. In the Chiefs’ win over Indianapolis, Damien Williams rushed for 129 yards while Patrick Mahomes had a rare sub-300-yard passing day. The Rams had two 100-yard rushers and held Ezekiel Elliott to 47 yards. Sony Michel rushed for 129 yards and three touchdowns for the Patriots, who held the Chargers to seven points in the first half. The Saints outrushed Philadelphia 137-49 and shutout the Eagles for the last 49 minutes of their game.

• Sean Payton is fearless. His two biggest playoff wins have included bold special teams plays: the fake punt in Sunday’s win over Philly, and the onside kick at the start of the second half that led to a win over the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV.

• When is the last time we had both conference championship games feature teams that played each other during the regular season’? New England beat the Chiefs in Week 6; New Orleans beat the Rams in Week 9.

• Both conference title games will feature Northern California QBs (Tom Brady, Jared Goff) vs. Texas QBs (Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees).

• On the day that Heisman Trophy winner and baseball draftee Kyler Murray must decide if he wants to enter the NFL Draft, it’s worth noting the baseball connection for three of the quarterbacks playing next weekend: While Mahomes and Goff are both sons of major league baseball players, Brady was drafted by the Montreal Expos.

• Some people still believe it’s not a wise move to use a first-round draft pick on a running back, but that line of thinking has been dispelled in recent years. Helping the case for first-round RBs: The Patriots, Saints and Rams all have running backs that were drafted in Round 1.

• When New England won the coin toss in their game against the chargers on Sunday, the Patriots elected to receive. That is very rare for a Bill Belichick-coached team. Obviously, Belichick knew what he was doing, as his team marched right down the field for a score.

• The drive of the weekend was the Saints’ go-ahead scoring drive in the third quarter against the Eagles. New Orleans went 92 yards on 18 plays, taking 11:29 off the clock. But it wasn’t the only long drive of the weekend. The Patriots and Rams also had multiple long drives to help them advance.

Kansas City Chiefs 35, Oakland Raiders 3 – Dec. 30, 2018

At Kansas City
4:25 p.m. ET
45 degrees

TEAM PLAY
CALLING		 PERSONNEL GAME
PLANNING		 IN-GAME
ADJ		 CLOCK
MGMT		 HCR
OAK 6 7 6 6 7 6.4
KC 8 8 8 8 8 8.0

Key Coaching Decision #1: (KC ball, leading 21-0 / fourth-and-1, OAK 1 / 5:49 Q2)
• Kansas City decided to go on fourth down at the Raiders 1-yard line. Oakland defense came up huge as they stopped Chiefs running back Damien Williams for no gain. Oakland took over on downs and had a great drive that ended with their only points of the game a 50-yard field goal by kicker Daniel Carlson.

Key Observations:
• Kansas City quarterback and MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes played a solid game with two touchdown passes and 281 yards through the air.

• Tyreek Hill had another explosive game for the Chiefs. He finished with five catches for 101 yards and two total touchdowns on the day. During the game he set the Kansas City single season receiving record with 1,455 yards.

• Oakland ran the ball well and finished with over 120 yards on the ground, but they could not overcome turning the ball over four times as the Chiefs cruised to an easy victory.

• The Chiefs move on to the playoffs, where they are the number one seed in the AFC; the Raiders move on to the NFL draft, where they have a boatload of picks at their disposal.

Seattle Seahawks 38, Kansas City Chiefs 31 – Dec. 23, 2018

At Seattle
8:20 p.m. ET
45 degrees, overcast

TEAM PLAY
CALLING		 PERSONNEL GAME
PLANNING		 IN-GAME
ADJ		 CLOCK
MGMT		 HCR
KC 8 8 7 8 7 7.6
SEA 9 9 9 7 7 8.2

Key Observations:
• Seahawks offensive line coach Tom Cable once again deserves a great deal of credit for the way the offensive line performed in this matchup. The Seahawks leaned heavily on running the ball through the middle of the defense. This complemented the play-action passing game and the offense was in a very good rhythm through the night.

• Kansas City displayed impressive play-calling as well. They appeared to key off the Seattle defensive personnel, and ran the ball more when linebacker Shaquem Griffin was in the game. They totaled 31 points in spite of two costly fumbles. The matchup was competitive, the Seahawks just gained an edge in most categories.

• Seattle’s defense deserves a great deal of credit as well. They consistently created pass pressure and confidently played zone as well as man-to-man coverage against the Chiefs renowned skill position group. The defensive philosophy certainly seems to be jelling with this new defensive group so credit to Seattle’s personnel.

Los Angeles Chargers 29, Kansas City Chiefs 28 – Dec. 13, 2018

At Kansas City
8:20 p.m. ET
37 degrees / Winds approximately 8 mph

TEAM PLAY
CALLING		 PERSONNEL GAME
PLANNING		 IN-GAME
ADJ		 CLOCK
MGMT		 HCR
LAC 8 8 7 8 8 7.8
KC 7 8 8 5 7 7.0

Key Coaching Decision #1: (LAC ball, trailing 28-20 / PAT attempt / 3:49 Q4)
• After a Justin Jackson 3-yard touchdown run, the Chargers decided to kick a PAT rather than attempt a two-point conversion. They would later attempt a two-point conversion (see Key Coaching Decision #3). It would be interesting to know if Anthony Lynn knew at this point that he’d go for two after the next score. If they knew they were going to attempt it, they might have attempted it here rather than later. Had they not made a two-point conversion here, they could attempt a second one to tie the game.

• A successful two-point conversion here would have made it 28-22 and the later touchdown with an extra point would have been enough for the win.

Key Coaching Decision #2: (KC ball, leading 28-21 / third-and-13, KC 8 / 3:26 Q4)
• After Patrick Mahomes is sacked by Isaac Rochell and Melvin Ingram, forcing a Chiefs punt from their own end zone, the Chargers elect to not use their third and final timeout. The Chargers had used two previous timeouts during this impressive defensive stand. However, they don’t call one here. Rather, they save the timeout for their last drive. They need that timeout on the final drive as Philip Rivers is sacked with 28 seconds left. They didn’t use the timeout, however, until 13 seconds remain in the game. They waste 15 seconds. It works in their favor, though. After the Chargers take the lead, there is only enough time left on the clock for the Chiefs to field a kickoff.

Key Coaching Decision #3: (LAC ball, trailing 28-27 / two-point conversion / 0:04 Q4)
• Anthony Lynn opts for the two-point conversion attempt rather than a PAT attempt that would have tied the game and sent it to overtime. A failed conversion would give the Chiefs a home win. Philip Rivers’ pass to wide receiver Mike Williams gives the Chargers their first and only lead of the game.

Key Observations:
• The Chargers clinched a playoff spot with their Thursday night road win over Kansas City.

• In a surprise, the Chargers offense outgained the Chiefs offense, 407-294. More surprising is that the Chargers did this without the services of their top two running backs for the entire game and their top wide receiver for most of the game.

• Philip Rivers threw for 313 yards with two TDs and two INTs, including one on the Chargers’ first drive that led to a Chiefs touchdown. Meanwhile Patrick Mahomes threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns.

• The Chargers were down 28-14 late in the fourth quarter.

• Chiefs safety Eric Berry returned from injury, but the Chiefs secondary wasn’t effective. Specifically, Orlando Scandrick and Ron Parker struggled and were liabilities in coverage.

Anthony Lynn Making His Mark With Red-Hot Chargers

By Craig Ellenport | Dec. 14, 2018

For the casual NFL fan, the Los Angeles Chargers’ win at Kansas City on Thursday night may have been a big surprise. It shouldn’t be. In their last 21 games dating back to last season, the Chargers are 17-4 – the best record in the NFL over that stretch. The team’s record, along with Anthony Lynn’s bold decision to go for two points and the win at the end of regulation against the Chiefs, has made the second-year head coach one to watch.

Lynn is currently tied for eighth in Head Coach Ranking with a grade of 7.4, though there’s a good chance that ranking will improve after the Week 15 grades are calculated. Not bad for a coach whose career got off to an 0-4 start last season. Since then, however, Lynn has improved in all key factors.

We first noted that improvement after the Chargers followed the 0-4 start in 2017 with three straight wins. After beating Denver 21-0 in Week 7, we noted Lynn’s impressive game planning on both sides of the ball. There was also a key fourth-down situation in that game that we questioned – the Chargers failed to convert, but it was an early sign that Lynn was a young head coach unafraid to push the envelope.

In HCR’s 2018 coach preview, Lynn drew praise for his temperament – a balanced approach that kept the team from getting too high or too low. This demeanor suited the Chargers well Thursday night as they fought back from a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter.

As for Lynn’s decision to go for two points and the win at the end of regulation in Kansas City? Ironically, the Chargers won a game earlier this season when the Tennessee Titans tried the same thing against them in their game in London. When that attempt failed, the Chargers won and we questioned the Titans’ decision in our game post.

We felt the Titans were better off playing for overtime in that contest. Against the Chiefs, however, it did make sense for Los Angeles to take a chance. Even though they would have had momentum going into overtime, why give QB Patrick Mahomes and the explosive Chiefs offense a chance to beat you?

To that last point, Lynn also showed off his improved game and clock management skills down the stretch. Trailing 28-21 in the closing minutes, the Chargers used their first two timeouts during the Chiefs offensive possession. After sacking Mahomes to force a punt from the Chiefs’ 6-yard line, the FOX booth questioned why Lynn didn’t call his third timeout. Why not? Because he didn’t have to.

With the Chiefs backed up, even a good punt was going to set up the Chargers with decent field position. They started their final drive at their own 40-yard line with 2:37 left. With one timeout and the 2-minute warning, that was more than enough time. In fact, any more time on the clock might have opened the door for Mahomes to get one more shot in regulation.

Even with the loss, the Chiefs remain the top seed in the AFC for now. But look out for the Chargers and their impressive head coach.

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Headcoachranking.com assigns a grade to the in-game performance of NFL head coaches each week.  Our knowledgeable graders analyze each head coach’s performance in 5 key areas of decision making. After determining their “HCR” (Head Coach Ranking), we rank them from best to worst. HCR rankings are posted every Tuesday of the NFL season, and fans will be able to track each coach’s performance throughout the season.

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