Head Coach Ranking

NFL Conference Championships – Monday Observations

By HCR Staff | January 25, 2021

Now there are two.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will play the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 55.  Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes.  And in a league of increasingly younger head coaches, Boomers Bruce Arians and Andy Reid will face off.

We’ve gotten to this point without any game cancellations during a difficult season.  So as we do every week, thank you to all the players, coaches and staffers who have made the 2020 season possible.

Let’s get to it.

Does Mike Pettine Survive As Packers Defensive Coordinator?  The Packers were playing from behind the entire first half – which they don’t like to do and frankly, don’t respond well too – but they had closed to within 14-10 with only eight seconds left in the half.  Plus, the Packers were going to receive the second half kickoff, so while trailing wasn’t ideal, it was still a one- possession deficit.

Tampa Bay had the ball on the Packers’ 39-yard line with a first down.  But with no timeouts left, there wasn’t much they could do – maybe complete a short five yard pass to the sideline, and then hope for a long field goal attempt.  If all of this went right, maybe, just maybe – at best – Tampa Bay goes into halftime with a seven-point, but still only one-possession lead.

But then the Packers defense made a terrible mistake.  For some reason, Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine decided to go man-coverage with a single high safety. 

Seeing this, Bucs quarterback Tom Brady decided to go all-in and take a deep shot to wide receiver Scotty Miller, who was being defensed by Packers cornerback Kevin King.  King had inside leverage and no safety help, and Miller easily ran by him for a touchdown and a two-possession lead.

It was an incredibly deflating turn of events for the Packers, and they were never able to really gain any momentum or sustained confidence in the game.

Pettine’s decision reminds us of the call that then-Jets defensive coordinator Gregg Williams made against the Raiders during the regular season that cost the Jets a game.  It simply was a scenario where there’s only one defense – and that’s to simply do whatever it takes to KEEP THE BALL IN FRONT OF YOU.

Experienced, decorated coordinators simply can’t screw this one up – it’s the golf equivalent of an eight-inch putt. 

But when you do screw it up, your job is on the line – automatically. 

We’ll be interested to see if Pettine survives this fiasco.

“4th & 8” Will Be Part Of Matt LaFleur’s Legacy, But He’s A Terrific Coach.  After trailing the entire game, the Packers had one last chance to tie the game at 2:09 left in the fourth quarter.  The Packers had the ball and a fourth down on the Tampa eight-yard line, down 31-23.

At this juncture, LaFleur had the following inventory to go over in his mind, prior to making a decision on what to do on 4th down.  He’s got: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, the best redzone offense in football, three timeouts and the two-minute warning (effectively four timeouts), the momentum, a defense that has played well in the second half, Tom Brady on the other side.

What, of this inventory, would you latch on to?

Us, we would have latched onto Aaron Rodgers.  We would have given him the shot to score; if he fails, the Bucs are backed up and we still have our four timeouts.  We’d still be in position to tie the game, even if we do fail on fourth down.

LaFleur latched onto his defense.  Which, frankly, for an offensive head coach, is fairly mind-boggling.  So he went for the field goal.

LaFleur essentially tried to outsmart the moment.  He wanted his cake and to eat it too.  He thought, “we can score (a field goal), and we still have our defense and four timeouts, and we can win, not tie.”

Now we like the aggressive thinking, for sure.  But a lot had to go right for LaFleur in putting his chips into that line of thinking.  For one, he had to hope Tom Brady was not going to be able to get a first down to get to his tenth Super Bowl. 

We don’t like that kind of hoping strategy.

Notwithstanding LaFleur’s decision, we remain highly impressed with him.  The Packers made numerous errors in this game, but they still had chances to win.  He’s still a very young head coach, and he will only get better.  He’s taken the Packers to back-to-back NFC Championship games, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers had an MVP season. 

Obviously, this loss is a bitter one for Packer fans, as their head coach took the ball out of their best player’s hands at the most critical moment – reminiscent of Pete Carroll’s decision not to run the ball with Marshawn Lynch in Super Bowl 49.

LaFleur just outsmarted himself; he missed on one – but only because it didn’t work out.  He is going to have the Packers in the hunt for many years to come, notwithstanding this decision.

Andy Reid Is One Of The Greatest Coaches Of The Last 20 Years Because He’s Andy.  Set aside his football acumen, but Andy Reid’s greatest asset as a leader may simply be his personality.  It is rare, and superb, and universally liked.  And in an incredibly cutthroat industry, this may be his most significant accomplishment.

His personality is what draws great players, and great coaches, to want to work with him.  And one of the great coaches he brought back was defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.

Spagnuolo’s work during the last two Chiefs’ playoff runs has been superb.  There have been rocky moments, of course, but one thing that’s stood out to us is that Chiefs’ defensive players seem to play with a higher intensity and cohesion in critical moments.

We’ve enjoyed watching how Spagnuolo utilizes his safeties, Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorensen, both of whom have made critical, game-changing plays in last season’s playoff run and this year’s.  Spagnuolo uses them as safeties and linebackers, and he constantly changes the looks – in a way where Mathieu and Sorensen get the hands on balls – often.

Chiefs Score A Clinical Victory, And Questions Abound For Bill O’Brien

By HCR Staff | September 11, 2020

The NFL returned last night, and we are grateful to have football.  Before going further, big thanks to all the staffers who worked on the event for making it possible.  To the game of football, those behind-the-scenes staffers are essential workers, and games don’t happen without them.

The Chiefs and Andy Reid dispatched the Texans, 34-20, and for a few moments, the Texans threatened to take the game into the 4th quarter.  Here’s what we gleaned from the inaugural game in the 2020 NFL season.

The Texans’ coordinators, DC Anthony Weaver and OC Tim Kelly, provided some head scratching moments.  Our grades still are being compiled, but overall, it was a middling effort at best for the Texans’ coordinators.  For Weaver, it was readily apparent the initial strategy was to force the Chiefs to march the field; Weaver was content having his defense give Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes the underneath plays and forcing Mahomes to be patient with long drives.  We didn’t mind this strategy; after all, it’s tough for most offenses to properly execute 10, 11, 12 plays without a mistake.  But this isn’t any offense; it’s the best in the league, and once Mahomes showed he could be patient, Weaver never adjusted.  In our view, he stayed vanilla a bit too long.  Mahomes is smart and good, so we feel you’ve got to challenge his brain – constantly.  Once he knows what you’re doing, it’s over.  As for Kelly, all one has to do is watch 2 things: a) his play choice once the Texans trailed by 17 points in the 2nd half – it appeared as if Kelly thought the deficit was 3 points; and b) his lack of adjustment in trying to help RT Tytus Howard, who was struggling with Chiefs DE Frank Clark.  We felt he left Howard out there solo a bit too much, and it showed up as Clark had his way with Howard on critical downs.

We Really Liked What We Saw From Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy .  Bieniemy  will be a head coach very soon, and we enjoyed his play calling last night.  He displayed a lot of imagination and thought in keeping the Texans off-balance.  We loved how he was very patient with the Chiefs run game – Bieniemy  is a former running back, and it was really nice to see how versatile the Chiefs running game can be inside and outside.  We also liked how Bieniemy  began the second half.  Staked to a 10 point lead and possession to open the second half, Bieniemy  came out in I-formation.  It worked, provided a wrinkle, and served to grind the Texans further.  Best of all, Bieniemy  didn’t take the bait the Texans’ defense offered in the first half when the Texans wanted to test the Chiefs’ patience.  Bieniemy  didn’t try any deep shots that would have been contested; instead, he trusted his offense’s ability to execute the small chunk plays.

As We Expected, The Officials Were A Bit Off Their Game.  The officiating wasn’t very good, but we can’t be too critical of them this early in the season.  Similar to players, they didn’t have their typical preparation this offseason.  Last night, we felt at least 3 procedure penalties were missed – one that was glaringly obvious on an important play – and we also felt the crew decided to let the players play; there wasn’t a single offensive holding call, in a game with 64 pass attempts.

Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire Is Going To Be A Star, But Does He Need This Many Reps This Early?  “CEH” is a fun talent to watch, but did he really need some of those late game carries last night with the game out of hand?  The Chiefs still were feeding him the ball late in a decided contest (25 overall carries), and he took a hellacious goal line shot, along with a couple of others as well.  How about using little-used FB Anthony Sherman in those obvious run spots when the game is just winding down? 

It’s A Bit Nit-Picky, But Winning NFL Games Is Hard, So Every Play Really Does Matter.  Andy Reid has been criticized throughout his career for poor clock management, and there is merit to that claim (but he’s not alone at all amongst his peers).  Last night, while well ahead and just trying burn clock in the second half, the Chiefs took a timeout…which wasn’t the poor choice at all at the time, but they took the timeout with about 13 seconds left on the play clock.  With a comfortable lead and just burning clock, if you’re going to take the timeout, why not first let the play clock wind all the way down?  Yes, a small point, but it’s these small details that head coaches get on players about as well. 

The Texans Lack Explosive Playmakers On Offense.  Finally, while RB David Johnson had a nice game, it’s pretty apparent the Texans don’t have a lot of explosion on offense.  They have nice players, but nothing resembling what defensive players might describe as ‘scary.’  WR Will Fuller can run, but his hands are questionable, while WR Brandin Cooks and WR Randall Cobb, at this point in their careers, are simply above average, from an explosion standpoint.  The Texans are going to have to scheme people this year, but is OC Tim Kelly up for the challenge?  He’s a former defensive lineman serving as an OC, which is rare.  We’ll see. 

Kyle Shanahan’s 2019 HCR Favors the San Francisco 49ers and Our Betting Algorithm Does Too

By HCR Staff | Jan. 31, 2020

Kyle Shanahan’s 2019 HCR of 7.9 finished tied for third (with Bill Belichick), and that was a fairly significant .6 edge over Andy Reid, who finished tied for sixth in our rankings. 

Shanahan was the more consistent in-game strategist than Reid throughout the season, and this may manifest in key moments in Sunday’s Super Bowl. 

For example, if San Francisco takes an early first quarter 7-0 lead, and Kansas City’s offense faces a long 4th and 1 on its own 45–still in the first quarter–does Reid punt, or does he attempt the fourth down conversion?

In our view, it’s not a debatable call, but as we’ve seen many times, head coaches can feel differently.

It’s these kinds of decisions that alter games, and we think they’re incredibly meaningful. That’s why we quantify this aspect of the game. Based on their respective HCR ratings, and how the spread interacts with our ratings, our proprietary betting algorithm recommends San Francisco on the money line and against the spread.

The numbers suggest that when it comes to decision-making, under game pressure, Shanahan is more reliable, at least in 2019.

Head Coach Ranking’s Super Bowl LIV Prediction and Analysis

By HCR Staff | Jan. 30, 2020

It’s an intriguing matchup this year, and one that may be heralding a new era in the NFL.

Both squads are relatively young, and could contend for quite some time…but that’s what was said about recent Super Bowl participants in the Los Angeles Rams, Atlanta Falcons, and Philadelphia Eagles.

Here’s our take on how Sunday will unfold.

The San Francisco 49ers have been the most consistent team in football in 2019.  This team is literal inches away from playing for a perfect season on Sunday. Their three defeats came as a result of falling short of a first down at home against the Seattle Seahawks, a Justin Tucker overtime field goal in poor weather, and a last second Falcons touchdown that barely broke the plane of the goalline.  

Kyle Shanahan is a better in-game strategist than Andy Reid.  Reid is a proven Hall of Fame-caliber program builder, but he does struggle with his in-game decision-making at times. Shanahan is more consistent, but he’ll bungle one here or there (the regular season home loss vs. Seattle). The last time Reid was in the Super Bowl, he badly mismanaged the end-of-game clock scenario. 

We like Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s Super Bowl experience. 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh is a rising talent, but he doesn’t have the Super Bowl experience that Spagnuolo has, and this could show up. Spagnuolo led the New York Giants’ victory over the New England Patriots in 2007, and we see a growing confidence with this Chiefs defense. So far, the 49ers’ interior offensive line has held up and played beyond their abilities, but we see Spagnuolo testing them on Sunday.

49ers GM John Lynch’s decision to pay kicker Robbie Gould may be the key. Gould held out this offseason and tried to force a trade to Chicago, but Lynch held firm and got the deal done for the tested, veteran kicker. Lynch probably felt the 49ers were going to be in a lot of contested, close games this year, and he would need a veteran kicker to perform. We see a close game on Sunday, and this business decision could prove wise.

The Chiefs may have the best screen game in the NFL, and if they hit a couple early, it may neutralize the 49ers rush effectively.  If we were doing the game planning against the 49ers, we would emphasize the screen game early. If successfully executed early in the game, it may serve to cause a bit of hesitation among the 49ers front four for the rest of the game. We feel the Chiefs have to get the 49ers to respect the screens on first down–we’ll be watching for this.

HCR PREDICTION: SF 26-24.

AFC Championship Observations

By HCR Staff | Jan. 20, 2020

Congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs and their victory yesterday, sending them to their first Super Bowl in 50 years.

Here are our observations to the game.

The Chiefs have to start faster. With the victory, Andy Reid’s Conference Championship record improves to 2-5. In order to win the Super Bowl, however, we feel the Chiefs simply have to start faster. Too many times now Reid’s teams come out tight and sluggish in big games. They caught a break when Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien decided to run a terribly ill-advised fake punt that gave much needed momentum to the Chiefs, and in yesterday’s game, the Chiefs were able to come back against a tired Titans squad playing its fourth consecutive road game. Now the Chiefs have to play on a neutral field against a team that knows how to close out games–a faster start in quarter one will be very important.

The Chiefs defense is starting to believe. The Chiefs have some very talented players on this unit–it’s just taken some time to gel under defensive coordinator’s Steve Spagnuolo’s system. But that gelling is happening, and one can see the increased confidence level, as well as the smoother communication. Spagnuolo’s also won a Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator with the Giants, and in a one-game season, we are sure he is going to empty his playbook and feature an aggressive, attacking scheme.

Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy’s play calling has been superb. Bienemy played offense as a player, and he isn’t afraid of players making mistakes–he coaches with aggression. He knows he has supremely unique talents in quarterback Patrick Mahomes and wide receiver Tyreek Hill, so he doesn’t take the ball out of their hands. Hill will get his looks running and catching, no matter the coverage. Win or lose on Super Bowl Sunday, we like this philosophy–put the ball in the hands of your best players.