Head Coach Ranking

As NFL Playoffs Begin, Here’s a Trend That Could Be Bad News for the Chicago Bears

By Don Banks | Jan. 4, 2019

With just 30 days away from Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta, a few items to consider on the NFL playoff coaching front:

Bad News for Bears?
Though the balloting might be a bit closer than expected, the consensus favorite for the NFL’s Coach of the Year honor, as selected by the Associated Press’ panel of voters, appears to be Chicago’s Matt Nagy (balloting was conducted earlier this week). The Bears’ bold and creative rookie coach took his club on a worst-to-first ride, going 12-4 and winning the NFC North by a comfortable three-and-a-half games over second-place Minnesota.

It made for Chicago’s first playoff season since 2010, and rejuvenated a fan base that was in the midst of its longest postseason drought since the Bears went 13 years between trips, from 1964-76. All of which bodes very poorly indeed for No. 3-seeded Chicago’s chances this weekend at home against sixth-seeded Philadelphia in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Even if Nagy’s club is favored by six points.

Why is there reason to beware, Bears fans? Well, because one of the most dominant trends in the league in the past 10 seasons is to have the eventual NFL Coach of the Year winner lose in his playoff opener that season. It has happened a stunning eight times in the past decade (80 percent) — even to the likes of the great Bill Belichick, the Wizard of Foxboro.

To wit:

• In 2017, the Rams’ Sean McVay won the award, but No. 3-seeded Los Angeles lost in the first round at home to sixth-seeded Atlanta.

• In 2016, the Cowboys’ Jason Garrett took the honor, but No. 1 Dallas fell at home to fourth-seeded Green Bay in its divisional round opener.

• In 2014, the Cardinals’ Bruce Arians was Coach of the Year, but fifth-seeded Arizona lost at fourth-seeded Carolina in the first round.

• In 2013, the Panthers’ Ron Rivera won, but his No. 2-seeded Carolina club lost at home to fifth-seeded San Francisco in its divisional round opener.

• In 2012, Arians won for the job of leading the Indianapolis Colts to the playoffs as a 12-game interim coach while Chuck Pagano battled leukemia, but the No. 5 Colts lost in the first round at fourth-seeded Baltimore. (A side note: Pagano had returned to the team by then, but offensive coordinator Arians missed the playoff matchup, taking ill and being hospitalized in Baltimore the morning of the game.)

• In 2010, the Patriots’ Belichick won Coach of the Year with his 14-2 team, but No. 1 seeded New England was upset at home by Rex Ryan’s sixth-seeded Jets in the divisional round.

• In 2009, the Bengals’ Marvin Lewis copped the honor, but Cincinnati never wins playoff games, and the No. 4 seeded Bengals lost at home to the No. 5 Jets in the first round.

• And in 2008, the Falcons’ Mike Smith took home the award for leading Atlanta to the playoffs in his rookie season, but the fifth-seeded Birds lost at fourth-seeded Arizona in the first round.

That’s eight Coach of the Year winners losing in their playoff openers in the past 10 seasons. The only exceptions being San Francisco’s Jim Harbaugh in 2011, who led his No. 2-seeded 49ers to one playoff win, before falling at home to the No. 4 New York Giants in overtime in the NFC title game, and repeat-winner Rivera in 2015, who took No. 1 Carolina (15-1) all the way to the Super Bowl that season, but lost that game by two touchdowns to top-seeded Denver.

At the very least, that portends the Bears probably aren’t winning the Super Bowl this season, presuming Nagy’s victory as Coach of the Year. The last coach to claim the honor and win it all in the same season was Belichick in 2003, whose dynasty-in-the-making Patriots that year earned their second Lombardi Trophy by besting Carolina by three points in Houston. Belichick is the only coach this century to turn that trick, although Dick Vermeil and the 1999 St. Louis Rams managed it as well in the past two decades.

Old vs. New
This weekend’s four games offer nice balance on the coaching front. There will be three Super Bowl-winning head coaches at work in the first round, and three playoff coaching novices. Seattle’s Pete Carroll, Baltimore’s John Harbaugh and Philadelphia’s Doug Pederson already own rings, with Carroll making back-to-back Super Bowl trips with his 2013-14 Seahawks.

On the other spectrum, Indianapolis’ Frank Reich, the Chargers’ Anthony Lynn and Chicago’s Nagy will be making their head coaching playoff debuts. And then there are the two coaches from Texas: the Cowboys’ Jason Garrett and Houston’s Bill O’Brien. Both are making their third playoff trip with their respective clubs, with matching 1-2 career postseason records to show for it.

Every matchup in the first round, except for one, offers an experienced coach versus newcomer angle. Reich is coaching against O’Brien in Houston. Lynn is going up against Harbaugh in Baltimore. And Nagy will take on the defending champion Eagles and Pederson in Chicago. Only the Carroll-Garrett coaching pairing in Dallas will feature a game where both men own playoff experience.

Super Credentials
Looking at the larger 12-team playoff field as a whole, adding the threesome of New Orleans’ Sean Payton, Kansas City’s Andy Reid and Belichick to the mix in next week’s divisional round brings a ton of playoff been-there, done-that. That’s an impressive 10 Super Bowl trips and 38 playoff berths represented, with Belichick logging eight of those Super Bowls to go with one each for Payton and Reid.

Depending on outcomes, we have a chance to have an eye-popping five Super Bowl winning coaches working next weekend, perhaps matching wits with some of the best young coaching minds in the game, such as the Rams’ Sean McVay, Reich, Lynn and/or Nagy.

Chicago Bears 24, Minnesota Vikings 10 – Dec. 30, 2018

At Minnesota
4:00 p.m. ET
Dome

TEAM PLAY
CALLING		 PERSONNEL GAME
PLANNING		 IN-GAME
ADJ		 CLOCK
MGMT		 HCR
CHI 9 10 10 8 6 8.6
MIN 5 5 4 6 6 5.2

Key Observations:

• The Bears executed an outstanding game plan in this matchup, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota did not have a first down until more than halfway through the second quarter, and Minnesota only converted one third down during the entirety of the game. In a game where Minnesota had so much on the line (needed to win to make the playoffs), it was extremely impressive to see Chicago come in and basically dismantle the Minnesota offense.

• At this point in his career Mitchell Trubisky is not a quarterback that will throw four touchdowns per contest, but it is precisely that the Bears do not ask him to do so that shows their understanding of how to win with this personnel group. A dominant defensive performance and a nice job by Trubsiky of managing the offense was enough to earn Chicago a score of 10 in both personnel and game planning.

• Minnesota attempted to convert a fourth and 3 from their own 32-yard line with seven minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. They were trailing by 11 at this point, and essentially forfeited three points in failing to convert. Minnesota had not shown much life at all during the game, but it could be argued that this decision to try to convert was made too early.

• Chicago did have some issues with game clock management. They were charged a delay of game in the first half and had to use two timeouts in the first half to prevent additional delay of games. They had used two timeouts by mid-4th quarter as well.

Here’s Why Chicago Bears’ Matt Nagy Should Be Coach of the Year

By Clark Judge | Dec. 28, 2018

The Chicago Bears don’t have the best record in the NFL. They don’t have the best record in the NFC, either. In fact, they don’t even have the second-best record. But they do have something … or somebody … no one else does.

And that’s the NFL Coach of the Year.

If I were to vote today – granted, there’s one game left – I’d make the Bears’ Matt Nagy my recipient. And I’d do that knowing there’s a raft of competition out there, all of whom are worthy of the award.

Like New Orleans’ Sean Payton. All he’s done is win more games than anyone and put his team in position to return to its second Super Bowl.

Ever.

Then there’s the Texans’ Bill O’Brien. A year ago, Houston tied with Indianapolis for last in the AFC South and lost nine of its last 10 games in the process. But today? Well, today he’s in position to win that same AFC South, less than a year after disgruntled fans were calling for his ouster.

On the outside closing fast, we have the Colts’ Frank Reich. If Indianapolis wins Sunday and reaches the playoffs, there will be support for what he’s done with a franchise that was India-no-place in 2017. And for good reason: He’ll have won all but one of his last 10 games to pull off the improbable – namely, recover from a 1-5 start.

Nevertheless, with one game left, Nagy is my frontrunner, and I’ll tell you why:

1) He resuscitated one of the league’s premier franchises, a club steeped in history, championships and Hall of Famers;

2) He did it overnight, turning a 5-11 bottom-feeder into a division champion that, with a victory Sunday, would wind up with more victories (12) than any Bears team since 2006 … the last time they went to the Super Bowl … and

3) He did it without one of the league’s best passers, top running backs or premier wide receivers.

There’s no Tom Brady or Drew Brees in Chicago. No Antonio Bryant, Todd Gurley or DeAndre Hopkins, either. Nope, Nagy won with a combination of suffocating defense, takeaways and an imaginative and balanced offense that’s already put up 133 more points than all of last season.

But Nagy has more than that going for him. He has history, too. The past five Coach of the Year winners … and six of the past seven … have been from the NFC. So voters lean in that direction. He’s also a guy who had immediate success, turning a moribund franchise inside out in just one season.

Voters like that, too.

Look what happened with Sean McVay a year ago. In his first year with the Rams, he was 11-5. The year before he arrived they were 4-12. So he wins the award. The same thing happened with San Francisco’s Jim Harbaugh in 2011 and Atlanta’s Mike Smith in 2008. They won in their first years, too.

And all operated within the NFC.

But what about, oh, say, the Chiefs’ Andy Reid and the Rams’ McVay? Good question. Both have a lot of victories. In fact, Reid has more than anyone in the AFC, and McVay has more than anyone but Payton in the NFC. But both are stumbling down the stretch, with the Chiefs losing three of their last five and the Rams 1-2 over their past three – with one of those defeats to Nagy’s Bears.

So scratch momentum. And, at least with McVay, scratch history, too. There hasn’t been an individual to win back-to-back Coach of the Year awards since Joe Gibbs did it in 1982-83.

But, you say, Matt Nagy doesn’t have one of the top two records in his conference … and you are correct. But so what? That’s not a prerequisite for this award. In fact, of the past 13 winners, nearly half (6) had five or more losses – including McVay last year.

What’s more, of the past 13 winners only three times – Bill Belichick in 2007 and 2010 and Ron Rivera in 2015 – has the Coach of the Year won the most games. But that’s not all. When Payton won Super Bowl XLIV with a New Orleans team that was an NFC-best 13-3 in 2009, neither he nor the Colts’ Jim Caldwell was Coach of the Year.

Remember, now, Caldwell that year was a league-best 14-2 in his first season with Indianapolis and went on to play Payton in the Super Bowl. But neither won over voters. Cincinnati’s Marvin Lewis did. And his Bengals not only were 10-6; they didn’t win a playoff game.

Then there’s this: It’s not just that Nagy revived a moribund club. It’s that he revived the Chicago Freakin’ Bears, a foundation franchise of the NFL that is one of its most popular and, at least recently, was one of its least successful, too.

Look it up.

The Bears haven’t been to the playoffs since 2010, haven’t had a winning record since 2012 and ran through four coaches the past seven years. Worse, they’ve been a last-place finisher in the NFC North the past four seasons, compiling a record of 19-45.

Bottom line: They’ve not only stunk. They’ve stunk for years.

But not now. Not with Matt Nagy calling the shots. So here’s my vote … albeit premature … for a guy who’s done for the Chicago Bears what Joe Maddon did with the Chicago Cubs – and that’s to make them relevant again.

Chicago Bears 14, San Francisco 49ers 9 – Dec. 23, 2018

At San Francisco
4:00 p.m. ET
59 degrees and cloudy

TEAM PLAY
CALLING		 PERSONNEL GAME
PLANNING		 IN-GAME
ADJ		 CLOCK
MGMT		 HCR
CHI 6 6 7 8 7 6.8
SF 7 7 7 7 7 7.0

Key Coaching Decision #1 and 2: (SF ball, leading 7-6 / second-and-8, CHI 13 / 0:30 Q2)
• The 49ers use their only timeout remaining during their final drive, which began at their own 32-yard line with 1:52 remaining. They had previously used two timeouts in the second quarter.

San Francisco drove the ball down to the Bears’ 15-yard line and former Bears kicker Robbie Gould kicked a 33-yard field goal to take a 9-7 lead at halftime. However, had they had the two remaining timeouts, they might have been able to put a touchdown up on the scoreboard.

Key Coaching Decision #3: (CHI ball, leading 14-9 / fourth-and-1, CHI 35 / 4:19 Q2)
• Mitchell Trubisky converted a fourth-and-1 sneak on their own side of the field with the 49ers having their full array of timeouts and the two-minute warning ahead. This was a surprising decision, as the 49ers offense had not scored in the second half. The Bears wanted to seal the game and were close to doing it here, but just a few plays later, a costly Allen Robinson fumble gave the 49ers the ball back and the opportunity to go ahead.

Key Observations:
• A brawl between the two teams towards the completion of the game might cost the Bears and Niners the services of some of their players. Both teams had players’ ejected (Bears wide receivers Joshua Bellamy and Anthony Miller and 49ers cornerback Richard Sherman).

• The 49ers could not find the end zone, but former Bears kicker Robbie Gould kicked three field goals for San Francisco.

• The Niners generated two turnovers in the game. They had not taken the ball away in six games.

• The 49ers offense suffered more injuries as RB Matt Breida, TE Garrett Celek, and WR Dante Pettis all left the game with injuries in the first half and didn’t return.

• Both team running games were ineffective. Niners running back Jeff Wilson spelled Breida and finished with just 27 yards on 11 carries. Bears second-year sensation Tarik Cohen had only 12 yards on six carries and one catch for seven yards. Even Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky was not productive running the ball as he usually is (3 yards).

• Trubisky did complete 25-of-29 passes for 246 yards and one touchdown. He avoided an interception as an intercepted pass was nullified by a 49ers penalty.

• 49ers QB Nick Mullens completed 22-of-38 passes for 241 yards and an interception that was the result of a dropped pass by Marquise Goodwin.

Head Coach Rankings for Week 15 in the NFL

By HCR Staff | Dec. 18, 2018

The big story last week was that almost all of the NFL’s first-year head coaches were successful. They weren’t as impressive in Week 15 as a group… but two rookie head coaches continue to stand out. Three, really, if you count Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy. But the names at the top of the Week 15 Head Coach Rankings are Frank Reich of the Indianapolis Colts and Mike Vrabel of the Tennessee Titans.

Nagy has been in Head Coach Ranking’s top 10 most of the season, but Reich and Vrabel have just starting to make their moves. They were tied for the top HCR grade in Week 14, and they are 1-2 this week.

Reich topped the list in Week 15 with a grade of 8.8 following the Colts’ dominant 23-0 win over the Cowboys. Vrabel earned an 8.4 after his Titans pitched a shutout of their own, 17-0 over the Giants.

Reich’s big week moved him into the overall top 10 in HCR – tied for ninth with a grade of 7.3. Vrabel is tied for 13th at 7.1.

Some other observations:

• After the New Orleans Saints held on to defeat the Carolina Panthers on Monday night, Sean Payton remains the top-ranked coach in HCR. He leads the pack with a score of 8.1.

• Not only did New York Jets head coach Todd Bowles earned the top grade among losing coaches in Week 15, but he easily outscored the coach who defeated him. Bowles earned an 8.0 grade in the Jets’ Saturday night loss to the Houston Texans. Bill O’Brien checked in at 7.2 – but he did get the win.

• Nagy had a Week 15 grade of 6.8 – the only winning head coach in Week 15 with a grade under 7.0. But Nagy is still tied for fourth overall with an HCR grade of 7.7.

HCR’s top 10 coaches for Week 15:

Frank Reich, Colts – 8.8
Mike Vrabel, Titans – 8.4
John Harbaugh, Ravens – 8.0
Todd Bowles, Jets – 8.0
Anthony Lynn, Chargers – 7.8
Kyle Shanahan, 49ers – 7.8
Mike Tomlin, Steelers – 7.6
Sean McDermott, Bills – 7.6
Mike Zimmer, Vikings – 7.6
Doug Pederson, Eagles – 7.6

Click here for the Complete Head Coach Rankings

Click here for the Week 15 Game Posts

ABOUT HCR

Headcoachranking.com assigns a grade to the in-game performance of NFL head coaches each week.  Our knowledgeable graders analyze each head coach’s performance in 5 key areas of decision making. After determining their “HCR” (Head Coach Ranking), we rank them from best to worst. HCR rankings are posted every Tuesday of the NFL season, and fans will be able to track each coach’s performance throughout the season.

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