Head Coach Ranking

NFL Week 11 Monday Coaching Observations

By HCR Staff | Nov. 18, 2019

It’s going to take a bit longer for Matt Patricia to change the culture in Detroit.  In our view, the Lions’ season completely changed when they lost the Monday night game against the Green Bay Packers earlier in the season. The Lions clearly did not get any breaks down the stretch with the referees in that game, but this has been a constant theme in Detroit for almost a generation: bad luck, bad place, and bad coaching, at the wrong time. We firmly believe Matt Patricia is going to be a good head coach, and Bob Quinn a good general manager. However, the player roster mix on the Lions right now is in transition, and the core group of Lions players that pre-existed Patricia may be more of the problem than the solution. This is a group of players that was chosen to play a different style of football than Patricia wants, and he and general manager Bob Quinn will have some difficult decisions to make this offseason in order to get Patricia the type of players he wants. Yesterday’s loss against the Dallas Cowboys is a microcosm of where the Lions are as an organization. Pretty good, but just not good enough.

It sure looks as if the Indianapolis Colts are the AFC version of the Philadelphia Eagles.  Colts head coach Frank Reich served in a meaningful role as an assistant coach with the Eagles, and it’s pretty clear that he’s imported a lot of what he learned there to Indianapolis. In particular, the 4th down decision-making looks very similar to the Eagles’ protocol, and the offense looks similar as well. Colts general manager Chris Ballard has built a very talented roster, and he already is among the top five general managers in football. However, we continue to believe Reich’s in-game decision-making is still a bit loose, and we’ll see how it plays out if they happen to make the playoffs. By 2020, we firmly believe Ballard will have built a championship roster, but whether or not Reich’s in-game decision-making also is of championship-caliber remains to be seen.

Will Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace abandon the Mitch Trubisky experiment?  Nagy and Pace form a pretty good duo atop the Bears organization, but they have clearly tied their fortunes to Trubisky. It’s a shame because both Nagy and Pace are young talents in the industry, but a lot of energy and politics are being expended defending Trubisky and his development. At some point, all of this energy will begin affecting other players. Once that happens, the culture will begin to erode. It’s pretty clear from watching last night’s contest versus the Los Angeles Rams that the quarterback position simply isn’t dynamic enough for the type of offense that Nagy wants to run. Sometimes, a mistake has to be acknowledged and losses cut. When will this happen for the Bears?

If the Arizona Cardinals can add some talent on the offensive line and a couple of more players on defense, the NFC West in 2020 will be the most exciting division in football.  Cardinals defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is receiving a lot of criticism this morning for his all-out blitz call at a critical juncture of the game yesterday. We understand it, but it was also aggressive blitzing that actually put the Cardinals in a position to win as well. Nevertheless, we believe the Cardinals actually have a path to contending for their division in 2020. We had a lot of skepticism about the Kliff Kingsbury and Joseph pairing in the offseason, but they have done a very good job of getting this team ready to compete each Sunday. The Cardinals don’t receive a lot of national attention, but we believe coaches all around the league know that you cannot sleep on this team.

Obviously, X’s and O’s are important to football, but as a head coach, building team character in resiliency is harder. Vic Fangio found this out yesterday.  The Denver Broncos were impressive in running out to a 20-0 lead against the Minnesota Vikings yesterday, but the loss came about because this still is a developing team that has not yet developed a belief in itself. Not many teams lose after taking such a large lead, but the Broncos’ collapse came about because at the moment, the Broncos resemble a doughnut–something along the fringes, but nothing in the middle, at the core. That core is belief, resiliency, and competitive character…when it matters. Whether Fangio is capable of doing this still is debatable in our view. Like any new head coach, however, he deserves at least two years to see if his philosophies can take hold.

NFL Week 9 Monday Coaching Observations

By HCR Staff | Nov. 4, 2019

Here are some observations of head coaches from around the NFL prior to HCR’s Week 9 rankings:

Don’t count out Anthony Lynn’s Los Angeles Chargers.  The Chargers are returning to health and availability, as the presence of running back Melvin Gordon and tight end Hunter Henry is transforming the team. While those player additions are important, it was the Chargers’ crispness and tempo that stood out to us. In their best performance of the season, the Chargers played with excellent and consistent energy throughout the game on both sides of the ball. The Chargers also seemed to play with a higher degree of discipline and dedication to assignment. As a result, the Chargers completely controlled the game from start to finish–something that is difficult to do against a good Green Bay Packers team that was playing in front of a pro-Packers crowd. If the Chargers can bring this type of execution to their remaining schedule, it would not surprise us if they run the table.

Matt Nagy of the Chicago Bears has a potentially career-defining decision to make. We still feel that Matt Nagy is a promising head coach, but he certainly is confronted with a potentially career-defining decision, and that is whether or not to bench current starting quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. It’s very clear to any observer that Trubisky is not improving–at the moment, at the very least. Perhaps if Trubisky sits for a stretch, it actually might help him in the long run. Either way, it’s a difficult decision that Nagy has to make, and thus far, he still seems firmly in Trubisky’s corner, even though Trubisky is not passing the eyeball test. Whether it is fair or not, Nagy’s career could be defined by this singular decision. The division still is up for grabs, and while the Bears’ defense has not performed at its highest level, it still is formidable enough to contend. 

The New York Jets have some good young talent, but it is not being served well by head coach Adam Gase. Of course, this statement may be accused of stating the obvious, but Sunday’s game against the Miami Dolphins was an embarrassment. Jets head coach Adam Gase simply has not created an environment that produces a professional result. Other than the personal efforts of the players–and they should be commended–there is no rhyme or reason to what the Jets are doing. Their game plans are far too ambitious, particularly considering they have not proven they can simply line up the most basic plays and produce results. Franchise QB Sam Darnold’s fundamentals are completely frazzled, and we are fearful he will lose confidence and regress. The circumstances surrounding Gase’s hiring at the Jets were strange to begin with, and it is not surprising that the results he is producing also are far beyond the norm. 

Bill O’Brien’s Houston Texans are finding an identity and settling into a rhythm.  The Texans are growing by leaps and bounds in the right direction, and the credit goes to their head coach Bill O’Brien. What we see is a team that has found its identity, and knows exactly how to move the ball, and what it wants to do on defense. That creates a team that will be dangerous in the playoffs. QB DeShaun Watson is a legitimate MVP candidate, and his comfort in the talent around him and the system, is now second nature. On defense, the Texans play as a sound and disciplined unit, and most importantly, play with great passion. All of this adds up to an organizational confidence that is trending in the right direction. There’s no more “hoping” in their play. The Texans know how to get on top of an opponent, and they also know how to close out a W now.

The NFL game is all about matchups, and in last night’s Ravens-Patriots game, the matchups favored the Ravens–for now.  John Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens coaching staff and players brought an excellent performance to their victory last night over the New England Patriots, and it was largely due to a matchup advantage in personnel.  The Ravens like to blitz a lot, principally because they have to help a defensive line that cannot generate pressure on its own. Last night, the Ravens were able to get away with this defensive tactic because, from a matchup standpoint, the Patriots don’t have a burner on the outside to threaten the end zone. Consequently, the Ravens could sell out with minimal risk, and the strategy worked well. Earlier in the season, the Ravens defense was torched for 40 points by the Cleveland Browns. Why? Well, the Browns have speedster WR Odell Beckham Jr., and that creates a completely different problem for the Ravens. Bill Belichick’s Patriots won’t stand pat, however. Rookie WR N’Keal Harry wasn’t active last night, and while he isn’t a top-level burner, his future presence in the offense will change the dynamic.  Patriots opponents know the Patriots cannot threaten them over the top, so for the remainder of this season, Belichick will have to scheme around this limitation–which he created as he was wearing his GM hat.

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has the Steelers playing a more complementary style of football.  While we don’t believe Mike Tomlin will ever grace the top of our HCR rankings given his in-game judgment ups and downs, he has done a good job of motivating a young Steelers roster and bringing them together to play a complementary style of football that is producing great results. Interestingly enough, the Steelers had in recent years become so proficient on offense, that the defense had become an afterthought. Now, however, it is not a given that the offense will score 35 points, so Tomlin and his staff have to manage the game differently, and much of that depends on not putting the defense into bad positions.  

NFL Week 4 Monday Coaching Observations

By HCR Staff | Sept. 30, 2019

Here are some observations of head coaches from around the NFL prior to HCR’s Week 4 rankings:

  • Sean McDermott broke the first rule of head coaching. While the Buffalo Bills fought a tremendous battle with the New England Patriots, head coach Sean McDermott broke the first rule of head coaching: don’t harm your own team. He made two ridiculous challenges and his otherwise haphazard use of timeouts left the Bills with none early in the fourth quarter of a close game. The Bills are a rapidly improving team, but McDermott let his emotions and frustrations cloud his judgment far too often.  
  • The New England Patriots have to make a move for a wide receiver.  Perhaps we can suggest Minnesota Vikings WR Stefon Diggs? If the Pats stand pat (see how that works?), they risk wasting what looks like a historic defense. Julian Edelman is hurt, Josh Gordon as well, and rookie Jakobi Meyers is promising, but he’s not explosive. Add to this a complete lack of tight ends and an offensive line consisting of personnel that just joined the team in Week 1.  This bears watching. 
  • It is becoming more and more apparent to us that Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury is in over his head.  Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has a passable unit on defense, but the offense has no idea what it is doing.  The offensive production comes mostly from broken plays that rely on the talents of QB Kyler Murray,  WR Christian Kirk and RB David Johnson.  Most of the production also comes after the Cardinals have fallen well behind. 
  • Jon Gruden had his best day as the Oakland Raiders head coach.  The Raiders were extremely crisp, playing with conviction and confidence in their schemes.  The Indianapolis Colts were down their top two defenders in LB Darius Leonard and S Malik Hooker, and Gruden’s playcalling took good advantage of that. The question now is whether the Raiders can do this consistently…or will they continue to be, you know, the Raiders?
  • With some luck, Bruce Arians’ Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad could be 4-0.  Even with the NFL schedule-makers working against him, Arians is giving his squad what it lacked in the past: a confidence and swagger. That’s leadership. Arians is a big personality, and he wants his team to play that way too.  The Los Angeles Rams are a cocky bunch, and the Bucs made them heel.  Arians’ judgment during games won’t always be spot on, but he is more of a big picture head coach in any event.  He and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles share the same vision, and their combination of grit, experience, and confidence may carry the Bucs a long way.
  • Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy showed why it is important to have a firm grasp of your personnel and their abilities. In their beatdown of the Minnesota Vikings,  Nagy had to rely on backup QB Chase Daniel.  Daniel has been with Nagy a long time, and Nagy knows precisely what Daniel can execute and what he can’t. Once Daniel came in, out went the naked boots, and in came the pocket plays — to great success.  Putting players in position to do what they do well is what good head coachess do.  
  • Don’t despair Detroit Lions fans.  Yes, it was a tough loss, but the culture that GM Bob Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia are installing is taking root.  They want smart players who can perform to specific and changing game plans, and the personnel is starting to get it.
  • Carolina Panthers head coach Ron Rivera is similar to Bruce Arians. However, we don’t see him atop our rankings because his in-game judgment is too iffy, but he’s a big picture leader who keeps it simple and brings the toughness.  It’s pretty clear what his formula is: just put our best players in position to make plays.  So, the defensive scheme is built around their speedy linebackers and their offense is centered around RB Christian McCaffrey.  If McCaffrey doesn’t get 25+ touches under all circumstances,  Rivera is going to want to know why.  Rivera’s team has responded with two huge, physical wins, and the NFC South now looks like the old AFC North.
  • The Minnesota Vikings look like a middle of the pack team, even though their talent (on paper) looks more top tier.  This is not a good look.  We believe offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski is a bit in over his head — it’s just not true that every single guy under 35 with just the right amount of groomed facial hair is an offensive genius.  Much of the Vikings’ offensive play design needs an overhaul. Their plays can be too slow-developing,  and while QB Kirk Cousins gets much of the blame, we believe it to be unfair — he simply is asked too often to do things outside his physical abilities. Plus, the Vikings’ protection schemes are far too ambitious, and as a result, Cousins is looking at free runners constantly. 
  • Finally, even though Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore shaves, we think it wise to delay the anointing process with him.  10 points with some of the most high-priced offensive talent in football (and that’s before QB Dak Prescott’s new contract)? Moore could well become a very good coach, but his lack of sophisticated game planning showed Sunday night.

First Impressions: An Incredibly Inartistic Affair, Bears vs. Packers Throws Us Back

By HCR Staff | September 6, 2019

One of the greatest rivalries in American sports kicked off the 100th NFL season. The Chicago Bears hosted their arch rival, the Green Bay Packers, in a highly anticipated showdown in the NFC North. The spotlight was on Matt Nagy’s offense in year two, and how the new partnership between rookie head coach Matt LaFleur and MVP-caliber quarterback Aaron Rodgers would fair against one of the top defenses in the NFL. The results were underwhelming as the teams perhaps took the centennial celebration too seriously by giving us a flashback of what a Bears/Packers game looked like in 1975.

We were especially disappointed in Matt Nagy’s offense. Last year, the Bears offense showed flashes of brilliant creativity when they executed Nagy’s scripted plays. Our biggest concern for Nagy as a playcaller was what happened after those plays. Tonight, however, the offense looked like it didn’t even have the scripted plays prepared — which is especially egregious given the extra time to game plan.

The offense was continually late breaking the huddle, and this perhaps indicates the plays were slow to come in, and resulted in crucial delay-of-game penalties.

Right now, of the Bears lack identity on offense. We feel they will have to prove they can run the ball effectively enough to help quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who seems to be hitting a ceiling with his talent, or it will be a long season.

The Packers offense, outside of a brief stretch during the second quarter, wasn’t much better. Much has been made this off season about the Packers giving quarterback Aaron Rodgers more control at the line of scrimmage. However, like the Bears, the Packers were pretty slow getting out of the huddle and their tempo wasn’t very good either.

We questioned some of Matt LaFleur’s decisions as they could have easily given momentum away. He squandered numerous opportunities to seize control of the game by going up 10 or more points. He could have cost his team a crucial time out in a chance to steal a divisional road game when he challenged a potential pass interference call in the fourth quarter. The challenge alleging pass interference on the play by Bears wide receiver Taylor Gabriel did not look egregious enough to warrant risking a timeout.

We also didn’t like LaFleur deciding to throw the ball on 2nd and 5 when the Packers were in position to force the Bears to use all of their timeouts.  Of course, quarterback Aaron Rodgers could have changed the play at the line of scrimmage. But in the end, LaFleur has given Rodgers that prerogative.

On the other hand, the defensive performances by both teams were strong. We particularly liked the work of Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine. He incorporated six new starters and the secondary showed great promise. Communication looked terrific and the Bears offensive line looked physically outmatched at times, which was surprising, but a credit to Pettine’s preparation and game plan.

For that, Mike Pettine is the co-MVP of the game along with Packers DB Jaire Alexander.

HCR Sees Matt Nagy and Bears Covering vs. Rookie HC Matt LaFleur and Packers in Season Opener

By HCR Staff | September 5, 2019

We won’t officially begin our gaming suggestions based on HCR data for the 2019 season until after Week 3.  Why?  Two reasons.  First, we have to get some baseline data on the season, and we feel our algorithm works best with at least three weeks of data.  Second, there are a number of rookie head coaches every year, and we have no historical data on these coaches.

That won’t stop us from simply making a fan’s guess at the outcome of tonight’s Packers at Bears opener.  We like the Bears covering the three point line at home.  Here are the variables we are focusing on:

  • Experience.  The Bears simply have a bit more experience with their head coach and his system.  It’s not much of an edge, but it is one for sure.  Players playing fast – and loose – because of their confidence within a system always is a big plus.
  • Matt LaFleur In-Game Inexperience.  Until your butt is in the seat with something at stake, it’s hard to know how consistent your judgment will be…and LaFleur is going to find out a lot about himself tonight.  He seems intelligent, hardworking, and dedicated…but sometimes you need more than that when it’s a game that matters.  A head coach is no different than a player – reps matter and LaFleur still is a virgin.
  • Home Field Adrenaline.  It’s been a long time that the Bears have entered a season with EXPECTATIONS.  We expect high energy from the home crowd, and the Bears are a momentum team.  We think this will be a strong factor in the game.

Any Bears concerns?  Yes, and it’s this:  there were times last year that head coach and playcaller Matt Nagy seemed to run out of play creativity after they ran their first 15 or so scripted offensive plays.  We will be watching to see how his offensive playcalling unfolds.