Matt Nagy Archives - Head Coach Ranking

NFL Week 4 Monday Coaching Observations

By HCR Staff | Sept. 30, 2019

Here are some observations of head coaches from around the NFL prior to HCR’s Week 4 rankings:

Sean McDermott broke the first rule of head coaching. While the Buffalo Bills fought a tremendous battle with the New England Patriots, head coach Sean McDermott broke the first rule of head coaching: don’t harm your own team. He made two ridiculous challenges and his otherwise haphazard use of timeouts left the Bills with none early in the fourth quarter of a close game. The Bills are a rapidly improving team, but McDermott let his emotions and frustrations cloud his judgment far too often.
The New England Patriots have to make a move for a wide receiver. Perhaps we can suggest Minnesota Vikings WR Stefon Diggs? If the Pats stand pat (see how that works?), they risk wasting what looks like a historic defense. Julian Edelman is hurt, Josh Gordon as well, and rookie Jakobi Meyers is promising, but he’s not explosive. Add to this a complete lack of tight ends and an offensive line consisting of personnel that just joined the team in Week 1. This bears watching.
It is becoming more and more apparent to us that Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury is in over his head. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has a passable unit on defense, but the offense has no idea what it is doing. The offensive production comes mostly from broken plays that rely on the talents of QB Kyler Murray, WR Christian Kirk and RB David Johnson. Most of the production also comes after the Cardinals have fallen well behind.
Jon Gruden had his best day as the Oakland Raiders head coach. The Raiders were extremely crisp, playing with conviction and confidence in their schemes. The Indianapolis Colts were down their top two defenders in LB Darius Leonard and S Malik Hooker, and Gruden’s playcalling took good advantage of that. The question now is whether the Raiders can do this consistently…or will they continue to be, you know, the Raiders?
With some luck, Bruce Arians’ Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad could be 4-0. Even with the NFL schedule-makers working against him, Arians is giving his squad what it lacked in the past: a confidence and swagger. That’s leadership. Arians is a big personality, and he wants his team to play that way too. The Los Angeles Rams are a cocky bunch, and the Bucs made them heel. Arians’ judgment during games won’t always be spot on, but he is more of a big picture head coach in any event. He and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles share the same vision, and their combination of grit, experience, and confidence may carry the Bucs a long way.
Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy showed why it is important to have a firm grasp of your personnel and their abilities. In their beatdown of the Minnesota Vikings, Nagy had to rely on backup QB Chase Daniel. Daniel has been with Nagy a long time, and Nagy knows precisely what Daniel can execute and what he can’t. Once Daniel came in, out went the naked boots, and in came the pocket plays — to great success. Putting players in position to do what they do well is what good head coachess do.
Don’t despair Detroit Lions fans. Yes, it was a tough loss, but the culture that GM Bob Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia are installing is taking root. They want smart players who can perform to specific and changing game plans, and the personnel is starting to get it.
Carolina Panthers head coach Ron Rivera is similar to Bruce Arians. However, we don’t see him atop our rankings because his in-game judgment is too iffy, but he’s a big picture leader who keeps it simple and brings the toughness. It’s pretty clear what his formula is: just put our best players in position to make plays. So, the defensive scheme is built around their speedy linebackers and their offense is centered around RB Christian McCaffrey. If McCaffrey doesn’t get 25+ touches under all circumstances, Rivera is going to want to know why. Rivera’s team has responded with two huge, physical wins, and the NFC South now looks like the old AFC North.
The Minnesota Vikings look like a middle of the pack team, even though their talent (on paper) looks more top tier. This is not a good look. We believe offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski is a bit in over his head — it’s just not true that every single guy under 35 with just the right amount of groomed facial hair is an offensive genius. Much of the Vikings’ offensive play design needs an overhaul. Their plays can be too slow-developing, and while QB Kirk Cousins gets much of the blame, we believe it to be unfair — he simply is asked too often to do things outside his physical abilities. Plus, the Vikings’ protection schemes are far too ambitious, and as a result, Cousins is looking at free runners constantly.
Finally, even though Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore shaves, we think it wise to delay the anointing process with him. 10 points with some of the most high-priced offensive talent in football (and that’s before QB Dak Prescott’s new contract)? Moore could well become a very good coach, but his lack of sophisticated game planning showed Sunday night.

First Impressions: An Incredibly Inartistic Affair, Bears vs. Packers Throws Us Back

By HCR Staff | September 6, 2019

One of the greatest rivalries in American sports kicked off the 100th NFL season. The Chicago Bears hosted their arch rival, the Green Bay Packers, in a highly anticipated showdown in the NFC North. The spotlight was on Matt Nagy’s offense in year two, and how the new partnership between rookie head coach Matt LaFleur and MVP-caliber quarterback Aaron Rodgers would fair against one of the top defenses in the NFL. The results were underwhelming as the teams perhaps took the centennial celebration too seriously by giving us a flashback of what a Bears/Packers game looked like in 1975.

We were especially disappointed in Matt Nagy’s offense. Last year, the Bears offense showed flashes of brilliant creativity when they executed Nagy’s scripted plays. Our biggest concern for Nagy as a playcaller was what happened after those plays. Tonight, however, the offense looked like it didn’t even have the scripted plays prepared — which is especially egregious given the extra time to game plan.

The offense was continually late breaking the huddle, and this perhaps indicates the plays were slow to come in, and resulted in crucial delay-of-game penalties.

Right now, of the Bears lack identity on offense. We feel they will have to prove they can run the ball effectively enough to help quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who seems to be hitting a ceiling with his talent, or it will be a long season.

The Packers offense, outside of a brief stretch during the second quarter, wasn’t much better. Much has been made this off season about the Packers giving quarterback Aaron Rodgers more control at the line of scrimmage. However, like the Bears, the Packers were pretty slow getting out of the huddle and their tempo wasn’t very good either.

We questioned some of Matt LaFleur’s decisions as they could have easily given momentum away. He squandered numerous opportunities to seize control of the game by going up 10 or more points. He could have cost his team a crucial time out in a chance to steal a divisional road game when he challenged a potential pass interference call in the fourth quarter. The challenge alleging pass interference on the play by Bears wide receiver Taylor Gabriel did not look egregious enough to warrant risking a timeout.

We also didn’t like LaFleur deciding to throw the ball on 2nd and 5 when the Packers were in position to force the Bears to use all of their timeouts. Of course, quarterback Aaron Rodgers could have changed the play at the line of scrimmage. But in the end, LaFleur has given Rodgers that prerogative.

On the other hand, the defensive performances by both teams were strong. We particularly liked the work of Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine. He incorporated six new starters and the secondary showed great promise. Communication looked terrific and the Bears offensive line looked physically outmatched at times, which was surprising, but a credit to Pettine’s preparation and game plan.

For that, Mike Pettine is the co-MVP of the game along with Packers DB Jaire Alexander.

HCR Sees Matt Nagy and Bears Covering vs. Rookie HC Matt LaFleur and Packers in Season Opener

By HCR Staff | September 5, 2019

We won’t officially begin our gaming suggestions based on HCR data for the 2019 season until after Week 3. Why? Two reasons. First, we have to get some baseline data on the season, and we feel our algorithm works best with at least three weeks of data. Second, there are a number of rookie head coaches every year, and we have no historical data on these coaches.

That won’t stop us from simply making a fan’s guess at the outcome of tonight’s Packers at Bears opener. We like the Bears covering the three point line at home. Here are the variables we are focusing on:

Experience. The Bears simply have a bit more experience with their head coach and his system. It’s not much of an edge, but it is one for sure. Players playing fast – and loose – because of their confidence within a system always is a big plus.

Matt LaFleur In-Game Inexperience. Until your butt is in the seat with something at stake, it’s hard to know how consistent your judgment will be…and LaFleur is going to find out a lot about himself tonight. He seems intelligent, hardworking, and dedicated…but sometimes you need more than that when it’s a game that matters. A head coach is no different than a player – reps matter and LaFleur still is a virgin.

Home Field Adrenaline. It’s been a long time that the Bears have entered a season with EXPECTATIONS. We expect high energy from the home crowd, and the Bears are a momentum team. We think this will be a strong factor in the game.

Any Bears concerns? Yes, and it’s this: there were times last year that head coach and playcaller Matt Nagy seemed to run out of play creativity after they ran their first 15 or so scripted offensive plays. We will be watching to see how his offensive playcalling unfolds.

NFL Head Coaches — The Clubs Within the Club Tier Four

By HCR Staff | August 25, 2019

Tier 4

Bruce Arians – he’s not a perfect game manager, but he has the clear ability to inject confidence into his teams. Personally, he’s an assertive type, and that’s how his teams play. We feel he is a significant upgrade over Dirk Koetter, and expect the Buccaneers to surprise.

Matt Nagy – Nagy obviously is showing a lot of early promise after a successful debut with the Bears. One thing we noticed, however, is that once he runs out of scripted plays to begin the game, he can struggle to adjust to game conditions. Like Sean McVay, Nagy comes across as very authentic and earnest with his staff and players, and thus far, that is working well for him. There now exists a lot of excitement around the Bears, and Nagy is responsible for that.

Dan Quinn – Quinn is relentlessly upbeat, like his mentor Pete Carroll. His players respect him, and he has an indefatigable spirit. We’d like to see a little bit more consistency of performance from his squads, but we also recognize that he has had some coordinator struggles.

Ron Rivera – Rivera is much like the defensive version of Bruce Arians. He is going to bring a very specific brand of football to the field, but we end up questioning his in-game judgment a little more than we would like. We like that he finally made a change at offensive coordinator, and with a healthy Cam Newton back at quarterback, we feel the Panthers will contend this season.

Kyle Shanahan – while his overall record is not good, it must be kept in mind that he took over a talent depleted squad. Combine that with the fact that the 49ers’ leadership is relatively inexperienced, and one can see why he’s had a slow start. Additionally, Shanahan has had tremendously bad injury luck. We feel he is equivalent to Sean McVay as an offensive mastermind, and if the 49ers can stay healthy this season, we expect to see better results.

Mike Tomlin – it might seem a bit strange to see a super bowl-winning head coach this low in our groupings, but we feel that Tomlin has some issues to address, and fast. Tomlin is not a good game manager, and we have always wondered about the level of discipline and control he has over his locker room. He benefits greatly from the most stable ownership in the league, as well as a terrific general manager in Kevin Colbert who consistently delivers high-quality talent.

Mike Zimmer – Zimmer is an old-school tough guy who knows how to coach an excellent defense, but he always is going to struggle relating to precisely what he wants out of his offense. He gives off the impression that he’s just one of those types of defensive coaches that happens to hate offensive football. Notwithstanding this, Zimmer has brought a sense of urgent purpose to the entire organization, as well as a much-needed edge. He is stubborn and most significantly, impatient. But that is exactly what we feel the Vikings need.

Anthony Lynn– he still makes too many game management mistakes for our liking, but he clearly has improved from his rookie season. Most importantly, he’s perceived as a very good leader for the entire organization. As a former player, he garners a different type of respect from his players, and as a person, he comes across with tremendous authenticity. We expect to see continued improvement from him in his game management, and the entire organization flies enough under the radar that Lynn does not have to deal with the same level of expectation that some other coaches must confront.

Frank Reich– like Lynn, Reich is a longtime former NFL player, and his experience as a quarterback certainly must help Andrew Luck. Reich exudes a very calm demeanor, and even though he had a couple of egregious game management errors last season, we see great promise. Most importantly, he has a terrific working relationship with Chris Ballard, who is one of the brightest young general managers in the game. The Colts are going to be a team to reckon with for a long time.

Bill O’Brien – he’s proven adept at taking over tough situations, and providing a good framework for a turnaround. However, we wonder if he has hit a ceiling, and it doesn’t help that he also is the de facto general manager.

As NFL Playoffs Begin, Here’s a Trend That Could Be Bad News for the Chicago Bears

By Don Banks | Jan. 4, 2019

With just 30 days away from Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta, a few items to consider on the NFL playoff coaching front:

Bad News for Bears?
Though the balloting might be a bit closer than expected, the consensus favorite for the NFL’s Coach of the Year honor, as selected by the Associated Press’ panel of voters, appears to be Chicago’s Matt Nagy (balloting was conducted earlier this week). The Bears’ bold and creative rookie coach took his club on a worst-to-first ride, going 12-4 and winning the NFC North by a comfortable three-and-a-half games over second-place Minnesota.

It made for Chicago’s first playoff season since 2010, and rejuvenated a fan base that was in the midst of its longest postseason drought since the Bears went 13 years between trips, from 1964-76. All of which bodes very poorly indeed for No. 3-seeded Chicago’s chances this weekend at home against sixth-seeded Philadelphia in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Even if Nagy’s club is favored by six points.

Why is there reason to beware, Bears fans? Well, because one of the most dominant trends in the league in the past 10 seasons is to have the eventual NFL Coach of the Year winner lose in his playoff opener that season. It has happened a stunning eight times in the past decade (80 percent) — even to the likes of the great Bill Belichick, the Wizard of Foxboro.

To wit:

• In 2017, the Rams’ Sean McVay won the award, but No. 3-seeded Los Angeles lost in the first round at home to sixth-seeded Atlanta.

• In 2016, the Cowboys’ Jason Garrett took the honor, but No. 1 Dallas fell at home to fourth-seeded Green Bay in its divisional round opener.

• In 2014, the Cardinals’ Bruce Arians was Coach of the Year, but fifth-seeded Arizona lost at fourth-seeded Carolina in the first round.

• In 2013, the Panthers’ Ron Rivera won, but his No. 2-seeded Carolina club lost at home to fifth-seeded San Francisco in its divisional round opener.

• In 2012, Arians won for the job of leading the Indianapolis Colts to the playoffs as a 12-game interim coach while Chuck Pagano battled leukemia, but the No. 5 Colts lost in the first round at fourth-seeded Baltimore. (A side note: Pagano had returned to the team by then, but offensive coordinator Arians missed the playoff matchup, taking ill and being hospitalized in Baltimore the morning of the game.)

• In 2010, the Patriots’ Belichick won Coach of the Year with his 14-2 team, but No. 1 seeded New England was upset at home by Rex Ryan’s sixth-seeded Jets in the divisional round.

• In 2009, the Bengals’ Marvin Lewis copped the honor, but Cincinnati never wins playoff games, and the No. 4 seeded Bengals lost at home to the No. 5 Jets in the first round.

• And in 2008, the Falcons’ Mike Smith took home the award for leading Atlanta to the playoffs in his rookie season, but the fifth-seeded Birds lost at fourth-seeded Arizona in the first round.

That’s eight Coach of the Year winners losing in their playoff openers in the past 10 seasons. The only exceptions being San Francisco’s Jim Harbaugh in 2011, who led his No. 2-seeded 49ers to one playoff win, before falling at home to the No. 4 New York Giants in overtime in the NFC title game, and repeat-winner Rivera in 2015, who took No. 1 Carolina (15-1) all the way to the Super Bowl that season, but lost that game by two touchdowns to top-seeded Denver.

At the very least, that portends the Bears probably aren’t winning the Super Bowl this season, presuming Nagy’s victory as Coach of the Year. The last coach to claim the honor and win it all in the same season was Belichick in 2003, whose dynasty-in-the-making Patriots that year earned their second Lombardi Trophy by besting Carolina by three points in Houston. Belichick is the only coach this century to turn that trick, although Dick Vermeil and the 1999 St. Louis Rams managed it as well in the past two decades.

Old vs. New
This weekend’s four games offer nice balance on the coaching front. There will be three Super Bowl-winning head coaches at work in the first round, and three playoff coaching novices. Seattle’s Pete Carroll, Baltimore’s John Harbaugh and Philadelphia’s Doug Pederson already own rings, with Carroll making back-to-back Super Bowl trips with his 2013-14 Seahawks.

On the other spectrum, Indianapolis’ Frank Reich, the Chargers’ Anthony Lynn and Chicago’s Nagy will be making their head coaching playoff debuts. And then there are the two coaches from Texas: the Cowboys’ Jason Garrett and Houston’s Bill O’Brien. Both are making their third playoff trip with their respective clubs, with matching 1-2 career postseason records to show for it.

Every matchup in the first round, except for one, offers an experienced coach versus newcomer angle. Reich is coaching against O’Brien in Houston. Lynn is going up against Harbaugh in Baltimore. And Nagy will take on the defending champion Eagles and Pederson in Chicago. Only the Carroll-Garrett coaching pairing in Dallas will feature a game where both men own playoff experience.

Super Credentials
Looking at the larger 12-team playoff field as a whole, adding the threesome of New Orleans’ Sean Payton, Kansas City’s Andy Reid and Belichick to the mix in next week’s divisional round brings a ton of playoff been-there, done-that. That’s an impressive 10 Super Bowl trips and 38 playoff berths represented, with Belichick logging eight of those Super Bowls to go with one each for Payton and Reid.

Depending on outcomes, we have a chance to have an eye-popping five Super Bowl winning coaches working next weekend, perhaps matching wits with some of the best young coaching minds in the game, such as the Rams’ Sean McVay, Reich, Lynn and/or Nagy.

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