Head Coach Ranking

NFL Head Coaches With The Most Authority On Draft Day

By HCR Staff | April 23, 2020

Draft day dynamics differ from team to team, and from a business perspective, it’s fascinating to watch how differently each organization operates.

Winning formulas have differed over the years; we’ve had dynasties where the general manager makes every decision (e.g., Al Davis and the Raiders), and we’ve had dynasties where the head coach makes every decision (e.g., Bill Walsh and the 49ers).

And we’ve had other successful organizations where the head coach and general manager shared decision-making responsibilities. (e.g., Tony Dungy & Bill Polian with the Indianapolis Colts).

No one has a monopoly on good ideas when it comes to operational structure, and in our view, it all comes down to the talent and personality (and ego) of the individuals involved.  

Team owner preference plays an important role in determining the organizational and decision-making structure of a team.  In the old NFL, owners were expected to simply write the checks and stay out of the way.  It’s not that way anymore as the modern owner, with greater frequency, comes from the corporate world, and they often bring their own bag of tricks and beliefs regarding organizational structure.

So as we analyze the input of head coaches on draft day, imagine a spectrum.  On the left end is a GM-centric model where the head coach has little to no input.  On the right end is a Head Coach-centric model where his decisions are final.

Most teams are in the middle of the spectrum, but they definitely lean more toward one end or the other.

Going into this Draft, here are the head coaches with the most authority, in our view (and in no particular order):

Bill Belichick, Patriots.  Full, undiluted authority.  The NFL’s version of a combo King-Pope, rolled into one.  Perceived ultimate power and infallibility (emphasis on ‘perceived’).

Bill O’Brien, Texans.  The last season was Shakespearean; O’Brien somehow purged anyone with any power and left himself standing.  Of course, he learned some tricks from the King-Pope in New England, so this isn’t surprising. 

Jon Gruden, Raiders.  Yes, GM Mike Mayock is a strong personality who knows players, but make no mistake, it’s all Gruden’s show.  Gruden has a very specific vision, and no one is going to get in his way as he tries to implement it.  

Sean Payton, Saints.    The Saints have a GM in Mickey Loomis, but Payton has the juice to come up with the vision and the pull to get the pieces he wants.  It was Payton that picked up Taysom Hill, and it was his vision to turn Hill into a valuable asset in all phases of the game.  

Matt Rhule, Panthers.  Rhule would not have taken the job unless he was given full authority, and notwithstanding GM Marty Hurney’s title, Rhule is going to call every shot from here on out.  He’s a proven program builder, and that’s the reason successful hedge fund trader and Panthers owner David Tepper wanted Rhule in the first place.  Tepper’s a Wall Street expert when it comes to assessing financial risk, and he’s putting his chips on Rhule.  Rhule’s got a smidgen of NFL experience, but his virgin tour as an NFL head coach is starting in the league’s toughest division.

How Much Will McCaffrey Touch The Ball Under Rhule?

By Marc Harper | April 16, 2020

When the Rams released Todd Gurley this offseason, it was a signal that NFL teams had learned their lesson on committing big money to running backs. The lesson: Look – twice – before you leap.

In the summer of 2018, the Rams pre-empted the final year and team option of Gurley’s contract and gave him $45 million in guaranteed money. Two years and $20.5 million in dead cap later, Gurley is down in Atlanta.

The Rams aren’t the only culprit.  Before him? The Cardinals giving David Johnson three years and $30 million guaranteed. Where is he now? Houston.  

Which brings us to Christian McCaffrey. Fresh off of back-to-back 1,000 yard rushing AND 100 reception seasons, the Panthers rewarded him with a 4year, $64 million dollar extension. It’s a terrific deal for McCaffrey, particularly for the position, where many teams simply want younger, faster, and most importantly, cheaper.

But here’s what we’ll be looking at:  McCaffrey’s durability.  So far, so good.   

But keep in mind this is a player that touched the ball over 400 times last year.  If he were to play out the remainder of his contract while touching the ball only 300 times a season, he would have touched the ball almost 2,700 times over a 9-year span.

That’s a fairly insane amount of touches, and potential collisions.  

If Christian McCaffrey plays the entirety of this contract, both sides are winners obviously. How do they get there? Build an offense around McCaffrey’s strengths, but limit his touches – and we’re sure that’ll happen.  Every NFL team now is more cognizant than ever about tread on the tire for each player.

If not? Then there’ll be substantial risk of having another bright young star leave the game before the age of 30.

Since new head coach Matt Rhule signed off on this deal, we are sure he has a very specific plan in mind for preserving McCaffrey’s health.  We like Rhule’s potential; he’s a proven winner and builder, so he gets the benefit of the doubt from us.

Congratulations to McCaffrey.  We just don’t want to see him in a game either up or down 24 in the mid-4th quarter.

“Opinions expressed are solely of the author and do not express the views or opinions of Headcoachranking.com.”

HCR’s Ranking of the New Head Coaching Hires

By HCR Staff | Jan. 23, 2020

Now that all of the head coach openings have been filled, we got our staff together to conference about each.

Our rankings here reflect who we feel will most positively impact their organization in 2020.

1. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys.  He’s got the experience, pedigree, and after sitting out a year, the hunger. Throw on top of that criticism over what some feel is insufficient results from having coached Aaron Rodgers, and McCarthy has something to prove. He inherits an A minus to B plus roster, led by an ascending young quarterback in Dak Prescott. We like the veteran nature of his staff; getting John Fassel from the Los Angeles Rams to coach special teams was a particularly good catch. Our only concern is holdover offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Moore appears a favorite of owner Jerry Jones. If Moore struggles, and McCarthy re-claims play calling duties, does that lead to dissension?

2. Ron Rivera, Washington Redskins.  Rivera still has a lot of vigor and passion for coaching, and he’s had his measure of success as well. Plus, it looks as if owner Dan Snyder is really ready to run a functional organization. His termination of General Manager Bruce Allen was a step in the right direction. The Redskins will play sound defense–Rivera and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will surely field a physical squad. Our biggest concern is offensive coordinator Scott Turner. From where we sit, we just see a middling to below average talent, but hey, we could be wrong…but we doubt it in this circumstance.

3. Matt Rhule, Carolina Panthers.  We were very close to putting him into our number two spot; we like this hire a lot. He’s a guy who has a very clear vision, and most importantly, he knows how to execute on it. He’s proven it.  Plus, we like that he has a long runway–he was given a very rich compensation package, so it appears that owner Dave Tepper really believes in Rhule. When the potential for any head coach to owner dissension is removed, that injects clarity throughout the organization. Rhule has one year of NFL coaching experience, and that was sometime ago, but hey, it’s something. So we do anticipate a bit of a learning curve. 

4. Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns.  Yes, he is articulate, and yes, he has been in the NFL for some time. However, we just didn’t think he’s ready. We don’t doubt that he is intelligent, hard working, and good with the X’s and O’s. We just wonder about his ability to lead. We simply don’t sense any gravitas, but maybe that accounts for less and less; it’s certainly possible. The one major positive we see here is that Stefanski clearly is aligned with Paul DePodesta, who is the de facto GM. So much of the energy in this organization has been sucked dry due to in-house drama in recent years, but that’s about to disappear. That circumstance alone will help Stefanski.

5. Joe Judge, New York Giants.  Something about this hire just didn’t smell right. Giants ownership claimed they offered Judge because they were worried he would take an offer from Mississippi State. So Giants ownership essentially is telling us that Judge had leverage on the New York Giants? We don’t think Judge had any leverage, but somehow Giants ownership felt he did–that’s pretty damning about their ownership. In any event, this could be another two and done for the Giants. We simply don’t think Judge is ready. And he’s going to get thrown into the New York media market too? One positive is the hiring of Jason Garrett as offensive coordinator; he’ll lessen Judge’s learning curve into the NFC East.

Head Coach Ranking’s Grades for the New NFL Head Coaching Hires

By HCR Staff | Jan. 8, 2020

Now that the firing season has ended, the hiring season has begun. Here’s HCR’s take on the new head coaching hires thus far.

Ron Rivera, Washington Redskins – Grade: A. Ron Rivera is going to bring much-needed credibility to Washington, and the fact that he’s a former NFL player, will only add to that shine. One thing Washington fans can count on for sure: the team will play a very physical brand of football. We like the hire of Jack Del Rio as defensive coordinator–he’s got a good track record in that regard, and he is going to be refreshed. As we are going to press, it appears that Rivera will hire Norv Turner’s son, Scott, as his offensive coordinator. We aren’t as excited about this development. This aspect of Rivera’s early tenure bears watching.

Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys – Grade: A. What’s not to like about this hire? McCarthy has the track record and he knows very well what a smooth functioning organization should look like. McCarthy is well-liked among his peers in the coaching profession, so he’ll be able to put together a first-rate staff. However, there are rumors that McCarthy will keep current offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. We feel Moore still needs much more seasoning, but even if he is kept on as offensive coordinator, all signs point to McCarthy as the play caller. Quarterback Dak Prescott is going to be in a highly favorable position as McCarthy’s system is specifically designed to be user-friendly.

Matt Rhule, Carolina Panthers – Grade: A.  We like how new Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper operates. He identified his man, and money was no object in obtaining the services of Rhule. Tapper has a vision, and he isn’t hesitant about executing on it. That’s a jolt of energy that this franchise needs. As for Rhule, he is a proven commodity. In his last two stops as head coach, he took over difficult assignments, and delivered spectacular results. That’s all we need to know. He’s been in the decision-making seat, and he isn’t afraid of a challenge. Tepper has strong vision and so does Rhule. The NFC South always is fun to watch, and it just got more interesting for next season.

Joe Judge, New York Giants – Grade: B.  We’re not sure anyone will really know what happened, but it sure did look like Matt Rhule was the Giants’ number one target. For whatever reason (and we speculate the Giants were turned off by the salary demand), Judge was the Giants’ consolation choice. Fear not Giants fans, for consolation choices have also worked out well in history. Remember Pete Carroll at USC? Mike Holmgren at the Packers? There is a lot of data out there that says sometimes being lucky is better than being good. As for judge, he definitely has been around big time winners. He apprenticed under Nick Saban, and recently coached under Bill Belichick. Both of those coaches are highly demanding, and insistent on attention to detail. Detail is exactly what the Giants need. Many industry observers are panning this decision, but we believe it has the potential to be a home run. We like Judge’s pedigree, his high energy level, and he’s recently spent some time in an organization that was full of veteran leaders who like to work very, very hard. We feel he is going to impart to the Giants a little bit of Belichick magic. And remember, Belichick spent a good chunk of his young career with the Giants, and had much success.  

Head Coach Ranking’s Top NFL Head Coach Prospects

By HCR Staff | Dec. 31, 2019

Monday brought more NFL head coach terminations; it’s a tough time of the year in the business, but every coach who signs up for these jobs knows the risks.

Right now, the Carolina Panthers, the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns need head coaches. The Dallas Cowboys could soon follow.

As we’ve seen from the recent spate of terminations over the last few years, identifying a person who would make for a good head coach is very, very difficult. There’s a myriad of reasons why, but one primary reason is that it’s hard to project how a person is going to respond when they’re under head coaching pressure. 

The pressure of being a head coach is vastly different than the pressure of being a coordinator or a position coach. They are completely different jobs, and it almost doesn’t even matter how much experience one has as an assistant. Experience matters–a lot.

Finally, it’s important to keep in mind that leadership skills are different than assistant skills. In our view, that’s a line that every hiring owner should memorize and repeat over and over as they go through the process.

Leadership skills are different than assistant skills.

If we were doing some hiring, here’s who is on our list…in no particular order, not even alphabetical:

Matt Rhule.  He’s led at two different places–Temple and Baylor–and rejuvenated both under tough circumstances, and he has NFL experience, which we feel is important. This guy obviously has vision, but more importantly, he executed on that vision.

Mike McCarthy.  He’s got the pedigree, the experience, and the passion to be back in the game, as witnessed by his recent media blitz (which was a bit over the top, but hey, this is the LinkedIn era). He’s sat in the seat at the highest level, and he’s won–that’s very important to us.

P.J. Fleck.  Very similar to Rhule. Successful at two college programs, Western Michigan and Minnesota, and he’s a former NFL player and coach.  He’s not being mentioned at all by pundits, but if we’re doing the hiring, we’d want to check him out.

David Shaw.  He’s been a longtime winner at Stanford, and he’s put in time as an NFL coach. We aren’t too enamored of his apparent brand-building–Bill Parcells doesn’t like ‘celebrity quarterbacks’, we don’t like ‘celebrity head coaches’–but he’s been a good, proven leader.

Jim Schwartz.  The Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator has head coaching experience, and just coordinated a defense into a recent Super Bowl victory. His cockiness got him into trouble in his first gig and he’s a little taken with himself, but no one questions his intelligence. Even though his first NFL head coaching gig didn’t work out, we’re sure the reps were valuable. The first gig also didn’t work out for a guy named Belichick.

Jim Caldwell.  We get it–he seems very low-key, not enough fist shaking and F-bombing. But what does that have to do with winning? He’s won, he’s honorable, he’s an adult, and other coaches like him (we just would not let him ever hire Jim Bob Cooter again). So if you’re a team that needs some stability he provides that. The modern trend is toward analytics, however, and perhaps the young numbers noobs wouldn’t take a shine to him. But what’s more important–a pretty algorithm or ugly winning? We’ll take the latter.

Ron Rivera.  Reportedly has agreed to a five-year deal to become the next Washington Redskins head coach.

Rex Ryan.  He’s on our list for only one team: the Cowboys. We just think he’s the right fit. The Cowboys have lacked identity, and Ryan brings that. He likes to make people laugh, but Rex is not a clown. He’s a very, very bright guy, and very competitive as well. He took the Jets to TWO AFC Championship games while competing in the same division as Belichick. Who else can say that? We think he fits the Cowboys because he’s an accomplished guy that wouldn’t care that owner Jerry Jones holds press conferences. Rex also is a fun guy, and Jerry likes that too.

Dan Campbell.  The Saints’ TE coach is a well-respected coach who has some interim head coaching experience. He’s put in a very good apprenticeship under Sean Payton. He reminds us of Mike Vrabel–he won’t be the greatest tactician, but he’s has strong leadership potential. He’s a guy we would want to investigate further.

Dennis Allen.  The Saints’ defensive coordinator has NFL head coaching experience. He was not ready for that first job, and he was humbled. Since, he’s had great success going back to New Orleans, and he is thought of as being very intelligent. We’d want to pick his brain and see if the additional seasoning has improved him.

Josh McDaniels.  He has tremendous experience, and he has pedigree. We’d approach him with caution, however. Why? We wonder about his maturity and personal honor. What he did to Indianapolis last year was out of bounds–even for the NFL. People in Denver also remember his immature power trips. He’s older now, but has he really learned? We’d talk to him, but we urge caution and a higher degree of inquiry.

Marvin Lewis.  He’s had a long and successful track record under difficult ownership circumstances…meaning, the Bengals don’t have as much money as other owners.  We’d like to see what he could do with greater resources.

Honorable Mentions for HCR.  Karl Dorrell, Jay Gruden, Eric Bienemy,  Greg Roman, Todd Bowles, Matt Eberflus.

No-Go Zone for HCR (not an exhaustive list).  Urban Meyer (we remember Steve Spurrier and Bobby Petrino), Brian Daboll (perhaps wound too tight, and we remember Ben McAdoo), Kevin Stefanski (darling of the analytics set, but we remember Monday Night against Green Bay), Shane Waldron (lacks experience and the McVay privilege has worn out its welcome for now), Lincoln Riley, Mike LaFleur, and Robert Saleh.