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NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football Coaching Observations

By HCR Staff | Nov. 15, 2019

Obviously, the big story of the night was the fight at the end of the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. Setting that aside, here are our other observations of last night’s contest.

Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens has too much on his plate.  Kitchens was never truly qualified to be an NFL head coach at this point in his career, but he’s in the job now, and what we see is someone who is completely overwhelmed. Kitchens is trying to be a head coach and offensive coordinator at the same time, and it simply isn’t working. Even though he has a tremendous amount of talent available to him on offense, there simply is no coherence to the game plan and execution also is poor. The offense had numerous short fields presented to it last night, and it struggle to produce 21 points. First down play-calling was particularly atrocious. Over and over again, the Browns were in 2nd and long, and that simply is not a formula for success.

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is terrific at getting a team ready to play, but as an in-game strategist, he is average at best.  Tomlin continues to always provide us with head-scratching decisions, and last night’s game was no exception. Trailing 14-0 in the second quarter, Tomlin’s offense faced a 4th and 2 from near midfield. Instead of punting and trying to pin an inconsistent Browns offense, Tomlin chose to go for the first down. The Steelers failed, and gave the Browns excellent field position. Even though the Browns did not capitalize, Tomlin did not give his defense an opportunity to make a play against a struggling Browns offense. Keep in mind, this is a Steelers defense that has been as hot as any in the league over the last month in producing turnovers, and turnovers for scores. We felt this was an opportunity for Tomlin to provide some momentum or spark for his team in this game, but he decided to pass it up.

Even though the Browns produced four interceptions last night, Browns defensive coordinator Steve Wilks made a number of questionable defensive calls.  While the Browns have a lot of talent on defense, much of that talent is very young, and still prone to serious mistakes. It’s up to the defensive coordinator to acknowledge that, and put them into positions where they hopefully can minimize their margin for error. Browns defensive coordinator Steve Wilks does not appear to believe in this philosophy, and that stance continues to put his young Browns defenders into difficult positions. On at least two third-and-long situations last night, Wilks chose to blitz and expose his young secondary. We felt both calls were unnecessary, especially considering that the Steelers offense was struggling, and the Browns held a rare lead. We fully anticipated a zone look in those situations as such a call was safer and appropriate in our view. But then again, Wilkes actually does not have much experience as a defensive coordinator, and it showed to us last night.

We hope to see the Browns transition in 2020 to a downhill, i-formation team.  Here are some observations: The Browns home field will always be windy and often cold. Additionally, the Browns divisional opponents also often play in windy and cold conditions. These kinds of conditions can make passing difficult. The Browns have two elite running backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield still is developing. The Browns offensive line pass protection quality is average at best. Given these observations, which we feel are reasonable, the 2020 version of the Browns should be an i-formation, downhill running team.  Get a quality full-back, a big battleship tight end, and perfect the ability to run the ball. This should be the course the Browns take in the offseason.

Tagged With: Freddie Kitchens, Mike Tomlin

Head Coach Rankings Update After NFL Week 10

By HCR Staff | Nov. 12, 2019

Similarly to last week, this week’s top head coach is also this week’s biggest mover. Dan Quinn’s Atlanta Falcons pulled off THE upset of the season so far, when his 1-7 Falcons defeated the 7-1 New Orleans Saints in New Orleans. The Falcons have struggled in the run game on offense and getting to the quarterback on defense, but both lines showed up on Sunday. The Falcons were able to gain 143 yards on the ground behind their offensive line and sacked quarterback Drew Brees six times keeping the Saints potent offense out of the endzone. Any given Sunday right?

A lot of credit should be given to Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin for adjusting to his team and changing the way he calls games. Since this adjustment, the Steelers have played solid complementary football on their four-game winning streak. Tomlin is accomplishing more by simply not asking his team to do too much.

Another head coach that won a key game relying on the run was Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer. In the Vikings win over the Dallas Cowboys, fans were able to see the effect a fullback can have in a game. Running backs Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison enjoyed the holes FB C.J. Ham opened up for them and the Vikings snatched a big road win.

John Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens took care of business against the Cincinnati Bengals. And Pete Carroll’s Seattle Seahawks handed the San Francisco 49ers their first loss in a Monday night overtime thriller.

Here are HCR’s Top 10 head coaches for Week 10:


1. Dan Quinn–8.6
T2. Mike Tomlin–8.2
T2. Mike Zimmer–8.2
T4. John Harbaugh–8.0
T4. Pete Carroll–8.0
T6. Brian Flores–7.6
T6. Jon Gruden–7.6
T6. Kliff Kingsbury–7.6
T6. Mike Vrabel–7.6
T10. Adam Gase–7.2
T10. Bruce Arians–7.2
T10. Matt LaFleur–7.2

Click here for YTD Head Coach Rankings after Week 10

Tagged With: Dan Quinn, John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, Mike Zimmer, Pete Carroll

NFL Week 9 Monday Coaching Observations

By HCR Staff | Nov. 4, 2019

Here are some observations of head coaches from around the NFL prior to HCR’s Week 9 rankings:

Don’t count out Anthony Lynn’s Los Angeles Chargers.  The Chargers are returning to health and availability, as the presence of running back Melvin Gordon and tight end Hunter Henry is transforming the team. While those player additions are important, it was the Chargers’ crispness and tempo that stood out to us. In their best performance of the season, the Chargers played with excellent and consistent energy throughout the game on both sides of the ball. The Chargers also seemed to play with a higher degree of discipline and dedication to assignment. As a result, the Chargers completely controlled the game from start to finish–something that is difficult to do against a good Green Bay Packers team that was playing in front of a pro-Packers crowd. If the Chargers can bring this type of execution to their remaining schedule, it would not surprise us if they run the table.

Matt Nagy of the Chicago Bears has a potentially career-defining decision to make. We still feel that Matt Nagy is a promising head coach, but he certainly is confronted with a potentially career-defining decision, and that is whether or not to bench current starting quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. It’s very clear to any observer that Trubisky is not improving–at the moment, at the very least. Perhaps if Trubisky sits for a stretch, it actually might help him in the long run. Either way, it’s a difficult decision that Nagy has to make, and thus far, he still seems firmly in Trubisky’s corner, even though Trubisky is not passing the eyeball test. Whether it is fair or not, Nagy’s career could be defined by this singular decision. The division still is up for grabs, and while the Bears’ defense has not performed at its highest level, it still is formidable enough to contend. 

The New York Jets have some good young talent, but it is not being served well by head coach Adam Gase. Of course, this statement may be accused of stating the obvious, but Sunday’s game against the Miami Dolphins was an embarrassment. Jets head coach Adam Gase simply has not created an environment that produces a professional result. Other than the personal efforts of the players–and they should be commended–there is no rhyme or reason to what the Jets are doing. Their game plans are far too ambitious, particularly considering they have not proven they can simply line up the most basic plays and produce results. Franchise QB Sam Darnold’s fundamentals are completely frazzled, and we are fearful he will lose confidence and regress. The circumstances surrounding Gase’s hiring at the Jets were strange to begin with, and it is not surprising that the results he is producing also are far beyond the norm. 

Bill O’Brien’s Houston Texans are finding an identity and settling into a rhythm.  The Texans are growing by leaps and bounds in the right direction, and the credit goes to their head coach Bill O’Brien. What we see is a team that has found its identity, and knows exactly how to move the ball, and what it wants to do on defense. That creates a team that will be dangerous in the playoffs. QB DeShaun Watson is a legitimate MVP candidate, and his comfort in the talent around him and the system, is now second nature. On defense, the Texans play as a sound and disciplined unit, and most importantly, play with great passion. All of this adds up to an organizational confidence that is trending in the right direction. There’s no more “hoping” in their play. The Texans know how to get on top of an opponent, and they also know how to close out a W now.

The NFL game is all about matchups, and in last night’s Ravens-Patriots game, the matchups favored the Ravens–for now.  John Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens coaching staff and players brought an excellent performance to their victory last night over the New England Patriots, and it was largely due to a matchup advantage in personnel.  The Ravens like to blitz a lot, principally because they have to help a defensive line that cannot generate pressure on its own. Last night, the Ravens were able to get away with this defensive tactic because, from a matchup standpoint, the Patriots don’t have a burner on the outside to threaten the end zone. Consequently, the Ravens could sell out with minimal risk, and the strategy worked well. Earlier in the season, the Ravens defense was torched for 40 points by the Cleveland Browns. Why? Well, the Browns have speedster WR Odell Beckham Jr., and that creates a completely different problem for the Ravens. Bill Belichick’s Patriots won’t stand pat, however. Rookie WR N’Keal Harry wasn’t active last night, and while he isn’t a top-level burner, his future presence in the offense will change the dynamic.  Patriots opponents know the Patriots cannot threaten them over the top, so for the remainder of this season, Belichick will have to scheme around this limitation–which he created as he was wearing his GM hat.

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has the Steelers playing a more complementary style of football.  While we don’t believe Mike Tomlin will ever grace the top of our HCR rankings given his in-game judgment ups and downs, he has done a good job of motivating a young Steelers roster and bringing them together to play a complementary style of football that is producing great results. Interestingly enough, the Steelers had in recent years become so proficient on offense, that the defense had become an afterthought. Now, however, it is not a given that the offense will score 35 points, so Tomlin and his staff have to manage the game differently, and much of that depends on not putting the defense into bad positions.  

Tagged With: Adam Gase, Anthony Lynn, Bill Belichick, Bill O'Brien, John Harbaugh, Matt Nagy, Mike Tomlin

Head Coach Rankings Update After NFL Week 6

By HCR Staff | Oct. 15, 2019

There was a lot to take in during NFL Week 6. There was something noteworthy to be said about almost every head coach. We don’t have space here to highlight all 28 (four on a bye week), but we do detail many of them in our two observations stories. Simply focusing on rankings, here are some of the coaches that stood out in the Week 6.

Kyle Shanahan has done it again. A second straight week as the top dog in the rankings and for the third time this season. This time he did it with beautiful simplicity, or just not trying to do too much, coming off a short week. Shanahan hasn’t proven himself as a Super Bowl-winning coach but he certainly is on the path to becoming one.

Bill O’Brien followed up his strong Week 5 performance with another one in Week 6. The Houston Texans, despite falling to a double-digit lead in Kansas City, came back to win a very tough road game. The Texans resilience is a credit to O’Brien’s strong leadership, and he and his coaching staff took advantage of the Chiefs inability to adjust on defense.

Adam Gase showed the most improvement this week, which will help his overall ranking. Gase got his starting quarterback back and took full advantage of that and the mistakes by the Dallas Cowboys.

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin turned it around by taking it back. Tomlin went back to the basics and got a must-needed win with his third string quarterback.

Here are HCR’s Top 10 head coaches for Week 6:

1. Kyle Shanahan — 9.2
2. Bill O’Brien — 9.0
T3. Mike Zimmer — 8.6
T3. Sean Payton — 8.6
T5. Adam Gase — 8.2
T5. Mike Tomlin — 8.2
T5. Pete Carroll — 8.2
T8. Bill Belichick — 7.8
T8. Vic Fangio — 7.8
10. John Harbaugh — 7.1

Click here for the YTD Head Coach Rankings after Week 6

Tagged With: Adam Gase, Bill O'Brien, Kyle Shanahan, Mike Tomlin

NFL Week 6 Additional Coaching Observations

By HCR Staff | Oct. 15, 2019

Ron Rivera has the Carolina Panthers in his image again and Bruce Arians and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not as far behind as their record indicates.  Ron Rivera was a physical player, and it’s always been his goal to build a physical team, centered around defense and a running game. He’s had success before with this formula, and in a very tough division, it’s the required formula for winning. Once again, the Panthers have a very physical, active defense, particularly with the addition of defensive tackle Gerald McCoy. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner is using running back Christian McCaffrey creatively; however, it remains to be seen if McCaffrey can keep up this pace for the entire season. Turner, however, is doing a terrific job bringing along backup quarterback Kyle Allen. Allen increasingly looks like starter material, and his physical gifts also are coming to the fore. He is very accurate, has a quick release, and a very good feel for the game. The Panthers wide receiver group looks reborn, and they are playing with a very high degree of confidence. As for Bruce Arians, we feel he is doing a very good job molding the Buccaneers into his image. While QB Jameis Winston had five interceptions, he also continues to show flashes of brilliance. He endured an unrelenting pass rush yesterday, but also stood in to make some terrific throws. His feel for the game, however, still needs refinement. He continually overestimates his physical ability to extend plays. Having said that, yesterday’s loss was not all on Winston. At the end of the first half, Winston threw a beautiful deep ball to WR Mike Evans, who was unable to come up with the catch. If Evans catches that ball, it changes the entire complexion of the game. Arians has done a good job making the Buccaneers a mentally tougher team, particularly in the face of a very inequitable early-season schedule.

Mike Tomlin goes back to basics in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ big road win against the Los Angeles Chargers.  If you’re a Steelers fan, we believe you should feel good about Mike Tomlin’s back-to-basics approach in Sunday’s victory.  For the first time in a long time, the Steelers didn’t try to get cute — Tomlin let his players play to their ability.  This week, Tomlin did what a head coach is hired to do — he injected energy into his team, and he put his players in a position to be productive. Starting a third string quarterback, Tomlin wisely kept the approach vanilla, and generally only had QB Devlin Hodges make quarterback-friendly throws.  On defense, Tomlin went back to his roots and played a zone scheme and forced the Chargers to undertake long drives — Tomlin was not going to give anything up over the top.  The result was a very positive victory for the Steelers, and most importantly, gave many of the younger Steeler players a reason to grow their confidence.  It’s not always x’s and o’s with head coaches, as the single most important aspect of their job is leadership. Tomlin showed that in Week 6, and kept the Steelers in the divisional race.

It’s never too early to think about playoffs (NFC Edition). There is still plenty of football left, but there’s some important games being played NOW.

  • The Philadelphia Eagles are 3-3 and all three losses have come to NFC teams outside of the division. This is important for potential Wild Card seeding as it is looking like there will only be one playoff team to come out of the NFC East. This week’s Sunday Night contest against the Dallas Cowboys (3-3) is for control of the division (for now). It’s a must-win for each team.
  • All three of the Los Angeles Rams’ losses have come to NFC opponents, including two within the division. It is possible that the defending NFC Champions are on the outside looking in for the playoffs. Luckily for them, they have two easier games ahead on their schedule in Atlanta and Cincinnati before they face a more difficult stretch where they head to Pittsburgh then come back to Los Angeles for back to back matchups against the Bears and Ravens. 


Tagged With: Bruce Arians, Mike Tomlin, Ron Rivera

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Headcoachranking.com assigns a grade to the in-game performance of NFL head coaches each week.  Our knowledgeable graders analyze each head coach’s performance in 5 key areas of decision making. After determining their “HCR” (Head Coach Ranking), we rank them from best to worst. HCR rankings are posted every Tuesday of the NFL season, and fans will be able to track each coach’s performance throughout the season.

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