Head Coach Ranking

NFL Conference Championships – Monday Observations

By HCR Staff | January 25, 2021

Now there are two.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will play the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 55.  Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes.  And in a league of increasingly younger head coaches, Boomers Bruce Arians and Andy Reid will face off.

We’ve gotten to this point without any game cancellations during a difficult season.  So as we do every week, thank you to all the players, coaches and staffers who have made the 2020 season possible.

Let’s get to it.

Does Mike Pettine Survive As Packers Defensive Coordinator?  The Packers were playing from behind the entire first half – which they don’t like to do and frankly, don’t respond well too – but they had closed to within 14-10 with only eight seconds left in the half.  Plus, the Packers were going to receive the second half kickoff, so while trailing wasn’t ideal, it was still a one- possession deficit.

Tampa Bay had the ball on the Packers’ 39-yard line with a first down.  But with no timeouts left, there wasn’t much they could do – maybe complete a short five yard pass to the sideline, and then hope for a long field goal attempt.  If all of this went right, maybe, just maybe – at best – Tampa Bay goes into halftime with a seven-point, but still only one-possession lead.

But then the Packers defense made a terrible mistake.  For some reason, Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine decided to go man-coverage with a single high safety. 

Seeing this, Bucs quarterback Tom Brady decided to go all-in and take a deep shot to wide receiver Scotty Miller, who was being defensed by Packers cornerback Kevin King.  King had inside leverage and no safety help, and Miller easily ran by him for a touchdown and a two-possession lead.

It was an incredibly deflating turn of events for the Packers, and they were never able to really gain any momentum or sustained confidence in the game.

Pettine’s decision reminds us of the call that then-Jets defensive coordinator Gregg Williams made against the Raiders during the regular season that cost the Jets a game.  It simply was a scenario where there’s only one defense – and that’s to simply do whatever it takes to KEEP THE BALL IN FRONT OF YOU.

Experienced, decorated coordinators simply can’t screw this one up – it’s the golf equivalent of an eight-inch putt. 

But when you do screw it up, your job is on the line – automatically. 

We’ll be interested to see if Pettine survives this fiasco.

“4th & 8” Will Be Part Of Matt LaFleur’s Legacy, But He’s A Terrific Coach.  After trailing the entire game, the Packers had one last chance to tie the game at 2:09 left in the fourth quarter.  The Packers had the ball and a fourth down on the Tampa eight-yard line, down 31-23.

At this juncture, LaFleur had the following inventory to go over in his mind, prior to making a decision on what to do on 4th down.  He’s got: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, the best redzone offense in football, three timeouts and the two-minute warning (effectively four timeouts), the momentum, a defense that has played well in the second half, Tom Brady on the other side.

What, of this inventory, would you latch on to?

Us, we would have latched onto Aaron Rodgers.  We would have given him the shot to score; if he fails, the Bucs are backed up and we still have our four timeouts.  We’d still be in position to tie the game, even if we do fail on fourth down.

LaFleur latched onto his defense.  Which, frankly, for an offensive head coach, is fairly mind-boggling.  So he went for the field goal.

LaFleur essentially tried to outsmart the moment.  He wanted his cake and to eat it too.  He thought, “we can score (a field goal), and we still have our defense and four timeouts, and we can win, not tie.”

Now we like the aggressive thinking, for sure.  But a lot had to go right for LaFleur in putting his chips into that line of thinking.  For one, he had to hope Tom Brady was not going to be able to get a first down to get to his tenth Super Bowl. 

We don’t like that kind of hoping strategy.

Notwithstanding LaFleur’s decision, we remain highly impressed with him.  The Packers made numerous errors in this game, but they still had chances to win.  He’s still a very young head coach, and he will only get better.  He’s taken the Packers to back-to-back NFC Championship games, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers had an MVP season. 

Obviously, this loss is a bitter one for Packer fans, as their head coach took the ball out of their best player’s hands at the most critical moment – reminiscent of Pete Carroll’s decision not to run the ball with Marshawn Lynch in Super Bowl 49.

LaFleur just outsmarted himself; he missed on one – but only because it didn’t work out.  He is going to have the Packers in the hunt for many years to come, notwithstanding this decision.

Andy Reid Is One Of The Greatest Coaches Of The Last 20 Years Because He’s Andy.  Set aside his football acumen, but Andy Reid’s greatest asset as a leader may simply be his personality.  It is rare, and superb, and universally liked.  And in an incredibly cutthroat industry, this may be his most significant accomplishment.

His personality is what draws great players, and great coaches, to want to work with him.  And one of the great coaches he brought back was defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.

Spagnuolo’s work during the last two Chiefs’ playoff runs has been superb.  There have been rocky moments, of course, but one thing that’s stood out to us is that Chiefs’ defensive players seem to play with a higher intensity and cohesion in critical moments.

We’ve enjoyed watching how Spagnuolo utilizes his safeties, Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorensen, both of whom have made critical, game-changing plays in last season’s playoff run and this year’s.  Spagnuolo uses them as safeties and linebackers, and he constantly changes the looks – in a way where Mathieu and Sorensen get the hands on balls – often.

NFL Divisional Round Playoffs – Monday Observations

By HCR Staff | January 18, 2021

It was a tremendous weekend of football, and as we do every Monday, let’s acknowledge the hard work of the players, coaches and staffers in putting on the games through a pandemic.  It’s been a terrific year of football thus far, but none of it is possible without the dedication of the players, coaches and staffers.

Let’s get to it.

Matt LaFleur Game Plans Are Elite.  LaFleur’s success as a sophomore head coach, from a W-L perspective, has only one rival, and that’s former 49ers and Panthers head coach, George Seifert.  We’ve got two full seasons of data now, and it’s clear that LaFleur is going to be a force for a long time. 

LaFleur is among the most talented offensive game-planners in the NFL; he’s right up there with Sean Payton, Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay.  His talent is making the game incredibly easy for Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who at age 37, has had a career year.  When we watch LaFleur’s work, we see a strong commitment to the running game, which then creates easy throw after easy throw for Rodgers.

In the Packers victory over the Rams, LaFleur’s play design on Davante Adams’ one-yard touchdown catch was exquisite.  LaFleur sends Adams into motion, and just a moment before the ball is snapped, he has Adams bend slightly toward the goal line.  Now, this typically is a penalty, but if the officials don’t call it, it isn’t, of course.  That slight bend by Adams substantially increases the window for a throw – which Rodgers made, easily.

It’s not an accident the Packers are the league’s most efficient redzone squad – it’s by design, LaFleur’s design.

Lamar Jackson Is Not To Blame.  Coming off a solid road win against the Titans in the Wild Card win, the Ravens’ and Lamar Jackson’s confidence was sky high.  It was Jackson’s first playoff win, and seemingly another step into his ascension into super stardom.

But after Saturday’s loss to the Ravens, all of this is in question – at least according to NFL observers and fans. 

The cause of this uproar is due to the Ravens’ style of play; when they fall behind, the impression is that they don’t have a real chance to overcome a deficit due to a lack of a sophisticated passing game and Jackson’s perceived inability to develop into a passer.

Jackson can erase deficits – he did so on the road at Tennessee.  Can he develop into a better passer?  We say ‘Yes.’  So what’s the real problem?

We see 2 issues. 

One, the passing scheme isn’t sophisticated, i.e., the route concepts run by the receivers are too simplistic.  The responsibility for the scheme falls on two people, head coach John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman.  That’s got to improve, but we don’t know if Roman is the coach to do it, based on his history. 

Second, due to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, there actually isn’t a lot of time to coach Jackson and help him improve – NFL coaches have strict limitations on how much time they can spend with the players (if this sounds strange, it is).  So Jackson and Harbaugh need to get together and figure out a hack to this problem.  Jackson may need to spend time with a private passing tutor in the off-season.

Can Jackson improve?  We say, absolutely, yes.  He’s an elite athlete.  His arm is plenty strong, and the conviction is there.  He’s already elite with his legs.  He’s elevated the franchise, and he wins a lot of games.  He just needs to be coached, and he didn’t get it in college, and due to the CBA, it’s actually hard to do it in the NFL.

Defensive Coordinators To The Fore During The Playoffs.  We’ve all heard the maxim “defense wins championships.”  Well, this past weekend showed why that phrase came into being.

Nearly every defensive coordinator turned in a stellar performance.  Former head coach Mike Pettine’s Packers defense grows more stout and cohesive with each performance.  What stood out to us with the Packers is that when they need pressure, they can get it, and that hasn’t always been true about the Packers for a long time.

Former head coach Leslie Frazier’s Bills defense also performed well.  His unit turned in the game-changing play: a 101-yard ‘pick six’.  On the other side, Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale graded out “A” too.  Martindale didn’t get a lot of offensive support, but he didn’t really need it, as he checked a Bills offense that has been on fire.  The week before, Martindale shut down the Titans. 

Former head coach Dennis Allen’s Saints unit devised a scheme that befuddled quarterback Tom Brady all game long.  The Saints tackled well, played with a lot of discipline, and performed well.  For the Bucs, former head coach Todd Bowles’ unit caused four turnovers, and was the star of the game.

Former head coach Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs unit kept creating momentum-changing plays, similar to their Super Bowl run last season.  His creative use of safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorensen doesn’t get enough notice.

Andy Reid Puts Us, And All Fans, In Our Place.  We conclude with soon-to-be Hall of Famer Andy Reid, and his master class on head coaching.  He dramatically taught all fans lesson #1 in being a fan:  Generally speaking, the head coach knows more than we do.

Reid’s fourth-and-one call for backup quarterback Chad Henne to throw the ball to wide receiver Tyreek Hill will be discussed for a long time, but to Reid, and in his own words, was a “no brainer,” even though the rest of the football world thought it was nuts.

Why?

Because Andy Reid knows his team – well.  And we don’t.  Reid, the head coach, knows what they practice, what every player is capable of, and what the Chiefs’ best plays are.  And Andy Reid knows how good he is at knowing his own team.  And he put his faith into all of these things. So whenever you feel like making this criticism or that criticism, just remember: the head coaches have more information than we do – a lot more.

Wild Card Weekend – Monday Observations

By HCR Staff | January 11, 2021

We were fortunate and got a largely entertaining weekend of playoff football this weekend.  As we’ve done all season, big thanks to all the players, coaches and staffers for all their hard work in pulling off the games. 

Let’s get to it.

Decisions That Work Against A High HCR Rating.  We get asked often about how our algorithm works, and while we’d like to answer, its proprietary, and around here, we observe the law.  Let’s just say that’s it’s a mix of qualitative and quantitative elements.  But instead of divulging the secret sauce, how about we just give you a few examples of what would be considered unfavorable coaching judgment from this weekend?

Momentum Matters.  We happen to think that momentum is important in an NFL game.  Good momentum creates positive feelings, adrenaline, confidence – at least that’s our take.  Additionally, we think that momentum is particularly important if you’re the visiting team; if you happen to get it, we think it’s important you do what you can to keep it. 

In the Colts’ loss to the Bills Saturday, Colts head coach Frank Reich disregarded our momentum variable.  The visiting Colts largely played well, but they were playing particularly well early in the game – essentially controlling it.  With 1:53 left in the second quarter, the Colts led 10-7, and faced a 4th -and -goal, from the Bills’ four-yard line.

Instead of taking the field goal and a 13-7 lead, Reich opted for a very low percentage fourth down play.  The play failed, the Bills took over, marched down the field for a touchdown, and were able to go in at halftime ahead 14-10.  Plus, the Bills would get the ball to start the second half.

With the second half kickoff, the Bills took the ball for a second consecutive score – a field goal – and a 17-10.  The Bills would continue to control the rest of the game, with the Colts playing catch-up.

Reich’s 4th– & 4 call was the wrong judgment, in our view.  He not only gave away momentum – he gave away a growing sense of confidence within his team that they were controlling the game.  It’s hard to get positive vibes like this as a visiting team, so when you have them, you’ve got to keep them.  Once Reich’s decision failed, not much positive happened for the Colts the rest of the game – they were perpetually in chase mode until the end of the game.

Math Matters.  Scoring more points than the other team results in a “W”, so understanding how the points add up is critical to good judgment as an NFL head coach.  Sounds simple, right? 

Well, in the heat of an NFL game, far too many NFL coaches fail the math test.  A good example is Bruce Arians of the Bucs.

While the Bucs won, Arians put his team into a bad spot from an early point in the game.

At 10:03 in the second quarter, the Bucs scored a touchdown to go ahead 15-7.  Bucs kicker Ryan Succop earlier had missed a PAT, but we expected Arians to give his kicker another opportunity to gain confidence and rhythm by kicking the point here to take a 16-7 lead.

Plus, if you’re ahead 16-7, you’re ahead by TWO possessions, because 16 minus 7 equals 9 points.  See the math? 

So kicking the point here should be a no-brainer, right?  Because if you go for the 2-point try (which is ridiculous to consider in the 2nd quarter), and it fails, now the Bucs would be ahead 15-7, which is a ONE possession lead.  Again, 15 minus 7 equals 8.

Arians disregarded the math, and went for the 2-point try.  Since it’s a lower percentage play, it wasn’t surprising it failed.  So the Bucs led, 15-7, WFT only trailed by one possession, and still had a strong feeling that they were still in the game.  And WFT did a good job of playing off that emotion into pushing the game into doubt all the way to the end.

This is another example of decision-making we don’t favor.

Ravens DC Wink Martindale Outcoaches Titans OC Arthur Smith.  One of the best tactical coaching jobs from the weekend was the game plan devised by Ravens defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale. 

Martindale had the Ravens sell out repeatedly to stop Titans running back Derrick Henry; the thinking clearly was, “if we stop Henry, the play action isn’t effective, and we don’t think Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill can beat us throwing it.”

Martindale’s game plan was proven right.  Even though the Ravens repeatedly gave Tannehill looks that favored throwing the ball against man coverage, Tannehill struggled.  The Ravens’ game plan resulted in a victory considered by head coach John Harbaugh as his most satisfying victory, ever. 

Smith has head coaching interview opportunities with every NFL team that has an opening.  Martindale has none.  We don’t get this.

Would A Fresh Start For Mike Tomlin & The Steelers Be Good For Both Parties?  The Steelers haven’t won a playoff game in five years, and have only three playoff wins since 2011.  Given the quality of the roster and ownership, this is significant underachievement, in our view.

Should both parties part ways?

Our verdict is, yes.

Tomlin is one of the better head coaches in the NFL, his winning percentage attests to that.  But again, he has benefited from the league’s most stable (and perhaps, best) ownership, and one of its highest quality rosters, year in and year out.

There’s a different kind of pressure to being the Steelers’ head coach; the standard is very, very high.  Tomlin may benefit from a refresh with an organization that doesn’t have the Steelers’ history, e.g., the Jaguars.

As for the Steelers, they’ve got plenty of evidence as to Tomlin’s ceiling there.  Ownership may feel that they’re positioned to climb greater heights, and they know that every quality head coaching candidate will consider Pittsburgh the best available job opportunity.

The evidence is unmistakable – the Steelers are under-achieving.  This might be a situation where a win-win results from a separation.