Head Coach Ranking

Sean Payton Tops HCR 2020 Rankings

By HCR Staff | January 13, 2021

Sean Payton tops our final HCR rankings for the 2020 season.  Since our inception with the 2017 NFL regular season, Payton has topped (or tied) our rankings three of the four years.

Payton graded out at 8.0 (on a scale of 10), barely eking out Packers head coach Matt LaFleur, who graded out at 7.9.  LaFleur also had an outstanding week-to-week performance in 2020, and the difference between him and Payton is not statistically significant, if we apply our proprietary gaming algorithm.

Bills head coach Sean McDermott and Ravens head coach John Harbaugh finished tied for third as both graded out at 7.8.

Rounding out the top 5 is Titans head coach Mike Vrabel.  Vrabel graded out at 7.7.

Our final rankings can be viewed here.

Doug Pederson & The Realities Of Business In The NFL

By HCR Staff | January 12, 2021

The Eagles fired head coach Doug Pederson yesterday, a mere three years after winning the Super Bowl.  Even for the cutthroat world of the NFL, this is a nearly unprecedented move – it’s only happened once before (firing of Colts head coach Don McCafferty in 1973).

Pederson’s firing shows there’s only one universal truism when it comes to business in the NFL, and that’s ‘What Have You Done For Me Lately?’

Patience and good will are in very, very short supply in the NFL.  Over the last ten years, the money only has gotten larger, and with the advent of social media, the attention and scrutiny has grown more intense.  Then when you add in the personal attributes of the people involved – ambition, ego, greed, and control – it’s a pretty toxic, albeit entertaining brew.

And that brew doesn’t care about what has happened before – it’s only hyper-concerned with the here and now.  In the NFL, the ‘Here and Now’ force is more powerful than gravity.

No matter how well Pederson did in the past, he got steamrolled by the ‘Here and Now’.

Did Pederson deserve to be fired?  Well, answering this question with a credible analysis is hard to do without knowing precisely the dynamic between the key people involved.  For example, how much autonomy did Pederson have?  And if he didn’t have total autonomy, how involved was owner Jeff Lurie or general manager Howie Roseman?  If Lurie and Roseman were very involved, was their involvement constructive?

Lurie, Roseman and Pederson will each have their own interpretation of events.  And since we weren’t on the inside, nor are we close to the key parties here, all we can do is look at certain underlying facts.

Fact #1 is that Lurie and Roseman have stayed loyal to each other – they’ve fired other successful head coaches before, namely, Andy Reid.

Fact #2 is that of the Lurie, Roseman and Pederson, the duo of Lurie and Roseman have more in common, from a personal history standpoint, than Pederson.  For example, of these three individuals, Pederson is the only former NFL player.  So Pederson may have a very different view of the game than Lurie and Roseman.

Fact #3 is that quarterback Carson Wentz’s contract was negotiated by Roseman and Lurie.  Wentz’s contract is a big anchor right now on the Eagles’ immediate and near future; a giant investment has been made in him.  And that investment dwarfs the financial investment made into Pederson.

Our preliminary take reveals that Lurie and Roseman are much more tightly aligned, and in a three-person dynamic, Pederson is the outlier.

HCR’s Top Minority Head Coach Candidates

By HCR Staff | December 29, 2020

The NFL’s head coaching carousel is going to start spinning in less than a week.  The league’s already got 3 openings – Falcons, Lions, Texans – and by next Monday, another 3 or 4 clubs may be looking for a new head coach (Chargers, Jets, Jaguars, Bears?).

The NFL’s Rooney Rule mandates that every club looking for a new head coach must interview one or more minority candidates.  But given the historical lack of opportunities for minorities, how deep is this pool, and what would we be looking for if we were in the position to hire?

Well, the pool is far deeper than one might think.  In fact, it’s straight up deep – no need for any qualifiers.  For example, there’s a solid group of candidates that check off the following criteria:  i) Head coaching experience; ii) NFL experience; iii) Success as a head coach.

Here’s who we’ve got (in no particular order):

Karl Dorrell.  Dorrell’s the head coach at the University of Colorado, and he’s coming off a great first year there.  He’s the former head coach at UCLA, where he also had a winning record under difficult institutional circumstances.  He’s got extensive NFL experience as an assistant coach – he can count Mike Shanahan and Bill Parcells as mentors.  He’s been a successful playcaller as well, and he’s got a magic touch with assistants.  At UCLA, his early graduate assistants included Kyle Shanahan, Brian Callahan (current Bengals Offensive Coordinator), and Clark Lea (new Vanderbilt head coach and former Notre Dame defensive coordinator).  Also on his UCLA staff were Tom Cable (former Raiders head coach), Jay Norvell (University of Nevada head coach), Eric Bieniemy (Chiefs offensive coordinator), DeWayne Walker (longtime NFL assistant and Group of 5 head coach), Don Johnson (longtime NFL assistant), Jim Svoboda (Broyles Award winner), Jon Embree (former Colorado head coach and current 49ers TE coach), etc. 

Marvin Lewis.  All we have to say about Lewis is “track record.”  And he built that track record under ownership that is considered among the most difficult – from a budget standpoint – in the NFL.  Lewis had an incredible run as Cincinnati Bengals head coach.  Yes, we get that he never won a playoff game, but by Bengal standards, just getting to the playoffs as consistently as he did, under the circumstances he inherited, is remarkable.  Now there are some who suggest he may not have the requisite energy at age 62 – and that could be accurate – we don’t know.  But when a Lewis is available, one can’t tell us that the “minority pool” isn’t deep with talent.

David Shaw.  The current Stanford head coach has a glittering record of success.  He’s got NFL experience, and he’s also the son of a longtime NFL assistant.  The refrain on Shaw is that he doesn’t want to leave Stanford.  That may be true, but has any NFL team ever also offered him enough money, authority and family comfort to test that premise?  For example, Raiders owner Mark Davis gave Jon Gruden a 10-year, $100 million deal to come out of the TV booth.  If Shaw were offered that, would he take it?  We don’t know, but he’s talented, he’s got the track record, and he’s more evidence of a deep pool of minority talent.

Jay Norvell.  The current University of Nevada head coach is successfully rebuilding a program that had eroded under the watch of former head coach Brian Polian, son of Bill Polian.  Norvell is a former NFL assistant, and he’s got an impressive pedigree.  His coaching influences include Hayden Fry, Bob Stoops, Jim Mora, Barry Alvarez and the like.  He went to a Super Bowl as the tight ends coach for the Raiders under Bill Callahan.  He’s also got great familiarity with the college offenses as varied as the Air Raid and Pistol, and the NFL West Coast offense.  Norvell’s the son of a former Power 5 college athletic director, so he’s grown up around the game as well. 

James Franklin.  The current Penn State head coach spent a year in the NFL as a coach for the Packers, and like David Shaw, has had extensive success in college as a head coach.  He’s on his second Power 5 program at Penn State, after having successfully led Vanderbilt.  At age 48, he’s barely entering the prime of his coaching career.  Again, like Shaw, there are those who question whether he’d leave college football.  But again, has any NFL club really tested the premise?

That’s 5 minorities who clear our basic, but lofty criteria.  Five guys who have had their butts in the seat as a head coach.  Five guys who have had to be the leader of an organization.  And 5 guys who’ve all had success as a head coach.  Finally, that’s 5 guys who’ve had NFL experience as well.

Now compare this group to “hot,” current NFL assistant candidates, who’ve never been a head coach – on any level. 

We’re not picking on these candidates, but each one requires some projection as a head coach, some speculation.

Is Brian Daboll, current Bills offensive coordinator, more qualified than the group we’ve identified?

Is Joe Brady, current Panthers offensive coordinator, more qualified?

Is Mike LaFleur, current 49ers passing game coordinator, more qualified?

Is Eric Bienemy, current Chiefs offensive coordinator, more qualified? 

Is Byron Leftwich, current Bucs offensive coordinator, more qualified?

There’s a lot of talent out there – it just has to be supported.  Many NFL head coaching legends failed – before they succeeded.  The difference was support from ownership, in terms of both resources and patience.

Rivera WFT’D On Haskins Situation

By Juan Lozano | December 29, 2020

On January 1, 2020, Ron Rivera was named the head coach of the Washington Football Team. To be more accurate, Rivera was named the head coach of the Washington team when it was known by another name. As we near the one-year anniversary of Rivera being named WFT head coach, much is different about the organization. In addition to the team nickname and of course the coaching staff, the power structure of the team has changed as key front office player personnel executives, such as Bruce Allen and Alex Santos are no longer with the team. 

At Rivera’s introductory press conference, Washington owner Daniel Snyder was quick to point out that the head coach, Rivera, would be the nucleus of the organization’s new power structure. Snyder said “We’re going to have one voice and one voice alone, and that’s going to be the coach’s”.  

If we are to believe Mr. Snyder, then Coach Rivera is solely responsible for this past week’s shockingly poor organizational response to a serious, yet manageable situation that turned into a debacle. What we are referring to of course is WFT’s response to the discovery of photos that showed second-year and now former quarterback Dwayne Haskins, partying while maskless, in violation of the NFL’s pandemic protocols. 

What did Washington do after seeing the photos? The organization responded quickly and stripped Haskins of team captain recognition and fined him $40,000, roughly half of his weekly salary. That’s a hefty fine for sure. That however was the extent of the team’s response. WFT handled the punishment as they successfully lobbied the NFL to “stay out” as they wanted to handle the matter internally. We aren’t sure what methods WFT used to convince the NFL that the organization could handle this violation of league protocol. (Whatever argument was used, we are sure that the Raiders players fined by the league earlier this season, would like to know how to cobble together such a convincing argument.)

After the team handled the matter internally, Rivera gave the starting quarterback nod to Haskins. The second-year player, Haskins, began the year as the starter and was replaced by Kyle Allen and later veteran Alex Smith. However, Allen was lost for the season and Smith went down due to injury in Week 15 and Haskins appeared to be the only viable option as a starter heading into the Week 16 contest against Carolina. 

The only other quarterback WFT had on the active roster was journeyman quarterback Taylor Heinicke who signed to the team’s practice squad on December 8th and was promoted to the active roster on December 19. However, Heinicke is no stranger to Rivera and the offensive staff having played for Carolina in 2018. In fact, he even started a game. 

Haskins played on Sunday and predictably his performance was subpar as he threw two interceptions while completing 14 passes for 154 yards. Haskins was spelled by Heinicke who was 12-of-19 for 137 yards and a touchdown. After the game, Haskins abruptly departed the stadium and didn’t meet his league-mandated post-game media obligations until it became well-publicized on Twitter and he arrived home. It was his last official appearance as a member of the Washington Football Team as he was released on Monday. 

Certainly it’s Haskins’ fault as he violated protocols, and comported himself in less than a professional manner. As he noted in a statement after his release, he is ultimately responsible for not meeting standards. 

This column isn’t about Haskins ultimately, he’s just an actor in a scenario that is playing out in Washington as it does on football teams throughout the country. The issue here is leadership and tolerance. How much tolerance do leaders have for talented players? Equally as important a question is “Why was it so hard for the organization to finally do “A” right thing?”  

There is not one right thing. There’s many ways to respond to a situation like this. 

The team as mentioned before took some punitive measures, they took the captaincy and the “CAPTAIN” patch from Haskins’ uniform and fined him a significant sum. Fine. But what was really taken? What value does a captaincy have when you can be captain one week and have it stripped and be off the team in a week’s time? Well, it isn’t worth much at all. The team, in this case, Rivera, really took away nothing from Haskins here.

There is also a protection goal when handing out discipline towards a rogue actor in a team setting. A leader wants to protect his team, in this case, from people that make bad decisions. There’s also a rehabilitation component. Haskins has had a number of incidents that gave the organization pause. Yet, they did not cut him immediately. We understand wanting to save him too.

The ultimate goal, in a team sport, is of course to win. During the week, Rivera and the staff came to the conclusion that Haskins gave them the best chance to win. This is where we start to question the judgment of the head coach. Rivera did not protect his team. A coach can try and rehabilitate the player without giving him the most important position on the field. 

The most important thing to a team and player is of course, time. Preparation and practice time is of paramount importance in football. There isn’t much time during the season to get ready for a game. The week flies by. Coaches need time to game plan and script practices. There’s only so many reps at practice to go around. If a team decides someone is a starter, they need to get them ready early in the week. WFT spent their time early in the week, getting Haskins ready. 

To come to this conclusion, Rivera and the offensive staff would have had to erroneously believe that Haskins was talented enough that he could overcome this intense distraction and lead a team to victory. 

That’s surprising especially considering the number of former players (six, including two-time head coach Jack Del Rio) and people that grew up around the game (three, including quarteracks coach Ken Zampese) on the assistant coaching staff. 

They’ve been in the locker room and have seen a lot. For example, Rivera played on the 1985 Bears, a team loaded with personalities on the roster (Jim McMahon, Steve McMichael, etc.) and even the coaching staff (Mike Ditka, Buddy Ryan, etc.). 

The difference between Haskins as a distraction and those 1985 Bears? Even though they burned the candle strong on both ends, they were veterans with established work habits. They were proven NFL winners around other winners. This is a different situation as Haskins was an unproven and struggling second-year quarterback with a team fighting for relevancy and a playoff spot. 

The Haskins situation and related response is the moment that coaches generally talk about well into retirement. This is their Super Bowl. This is their opportunity to be heroic. This was an opportunity to be who they say they are, principled, resolute, and unwavering in their commitment to the values of the team.

Instead the Washington decision makers look weak, having tried to get a player that was ill-prepared to perform. What’s worse is they told the team by playing Haskins that they should believe in both Haskins and the staff. The team knows that you played him. The players know that you had a mistaken belief that Haskins would be able to contribute to a victory. Not only do they question the football judgment of the leader, they are questioning Rivera’s commitment to the principles that he espouses. 

The lesson learned in Washington is that you can get away with not being a team player if you are perceived as being someone that can win a game. In fact, in Washington you can crash the car, as you’ll get the keys and get to drive yet another car. 

Rivera has received kudos for having the power to ask the owner for Haskins’ release. That didn’t take great courage at all. He cut someone from the roster that currently can’t compete in an NFL game and may never be able to. What would have been courageous and redemptive is if he again sat Haskins and made him “INACTIVE” on gameday. This might have saved the quarterback. That might have been Haskins’ wake-up call, that is to endure the slight humiliation of being stripped of captaincy and not being allowed to dress out with the team. But Rivera and WFT didn’t do that. 

Instead, they misplaced their faith in Haskins, he played, let the team down yet again, acted up and was cut. Washington got rid of their issue. And Rivera gets applause for having taken a stand after having failed to take one all week. 

In Rivera’s introductory press conference, he cited his roots, that is, he comes from a military family- his father was an Army officer — and how he wanted to bring that type of discipline to the team.

Rivera’s brand of military discipline looks largely unfamiliar. It most certainly looks unfamiliar to linebacker coach Steve Russ, an NFL and Air Force veteran. 

WFT heads into Sunday’s contest against Philadelphia with either Alex Smith or Heinicke at quarterback. If WFT starts Heinicke this weekend, but didn’t in Week 16, it suggests they are starting him NOW not because they believe he can win the game, but because they MUST start him as they are out of options. After all, WFT played a distracted and unprepared Haskins ahead of Heinicke.  What makes matters even more harrowing is that the stakes are high for WFT and Rivera, as a win against the Eagles secures the NFC East crown and a home playoff game. 

Whether WFT wins or not isn’t wholly irrelevant, but it’s not as important as the long-term ramifications of that decision to play Haskins. We believe they could extend into 2021 and beyond. Rivera and staff demonstrated they are willing to compromise their values for a player that can’t even get through a game. Imagine the kind of message that sends to the rest of the team.

Currently the values of the team and organization appear to be nothing more than aspirational, a hashtag or a saying emblazoned in the hallways of the facility. For the most part, the general public doesn’t get to see how critical decisions are made in an organization. We are left to speculate based on what we have been told. The organization has touted the head coach-centric power structure and we can only conclude that Rivera makes the major decisions such as whether to start Haskins. Things may have again changed in Washington. The front office might have ordered the coaches to play Haskins. We aren’t sure. Anything in possible in Washington. Yes, the defense is playing better and there are some good young players on the roster, but the new Washington Football sure looks a lot like the old Washington Football Team right now.

Opinions expressed are solely of the author and do not express the views or opinions of Headcoachranking.com.

HCR’s Red Flags On NFL Head Coach Candidates

By HCR Staff | December 23, 2020

The 2020 NFL offseason is going to have an entertaining head coaching carousel to watch.  Right now, we’ve got the Texans, Lions, and Falcons already in need of new head coaches.  The Chargers, Jaguars, Jets, Bears, and perhaps Broncos may follow.

Plus, there’s usually one surprise as well.  How about the Eagles?

Our best guess is that a minimum of six organizations will have a new head coach in 2021.

Already, the corporate headhunters are lining up, as well as ‘special advisors.’  Every process will be slightly different, and much of it won’t make any common sense.  Add on top of this, every media member looking to curry favor with coaches will be coming up with their own lists of potential hires.

Here at HCR, we’ve got our own internal list of viable head coach candidates that we’d consider if we had the authority to make a choice – but we don’t, so we’re not going to add to the drabble that’s out there.

We will, however, try to help every organization with our list of red flags – if any candidate shows anything on this list, we’d recommend crossing them off the list.

Let’s get to it.

Red Flag #1 – The Navy SEALs.  If any candidate talks about leadership and brings up the Navy SEALs, they’re posing, in our view.  It’s been in vogue in the last 10+ years to bring in all kinds of ex-military people to talk to players, work out with players, eat with players, etc., all in some kind of effort to help them play better.  And the most in vogue military personnel have been the SEALs.  Nothing against the SEALs, of course, but we see them being used as cover by head coaches to cover up some other deficiency, or as a distraction.  Not very honorable in our book. 

Red Flag #2 – Favored Candidate of Media Heavyweights.  If any candidate seems to have the consensus support of Adam Schefter, Jason La Canfora, Chris Mortensen, and Ian Rapoport, we are wary.  The only way they get this kind of support is because this is an indicator they speak to media members all the time.  Which means they are on the phone all the time.  Which means they are not on the field coaching or with their coaches all the time.  And which also means that anything that happens in your building will not stay in your building.  And so we’re clear; this isn’t a criticism of these heavyweight media members; they are just doing their job, and doing it well.  But we don’t want a head coach who wants to be in the media when we’re interviewing for a head coach.

Red Flag #3 – A Flavor Of The Month Playing Scheme.  The “Pistol.”  The “Wildcat.”  “46 defense.” Yada yada yada.  If any candidate is selling something like this, we’re out.  In the modern day NFL, at least in our view, you’ve got to be ‘multiple’ to win; the athletes are just too good.  If someone is pushing a media-created scheme that is a ‘brand,’ we’re moving on.

Red Flag #4 – The Personal Tragedy.  Many coaches have overcome personal tragedy or struggle.  Many have made huge sacrifices in their personal lives.  We empathize with all of it, of course.  However, if the candidacy is all about this, and less about football acumen, we have to move on.  We want to know about teaching ability, creativity, organization, discipline, etc.  We simply can’t be about the sympathy hire.  We’re looking to win games.