Head Coach Ranking

Catching Up With Some Curious Coaching Moves Around the NFL

By HCR Staff | Jan. 29, 2019

While the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams prepare for Super Bowl LIII, there’s been plenty of activity around the NFL as the other 30 teams evaluate and make adjustments to their coaching staffs. Amid all the Super Bowl hoopla, here’s a rundown of some recent activity you may have missed:

ATLANTA FALCONS:
While head coach Dan Quinn survived a disappointing season, the Falcons did fire all three of their coordinators – offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, defensive coordinator Marquand Manuel and special teams coordinator Keith Armstrong. It would appear that this coming season will be critical for Quinn. Dirk Koetter is the new OC. Quinn takes over as DC. The new special teams coordinator is Ben Kotwica, formerly with the Washington Redskins.

BUFFALO BILLS:
The Bills fired offensive line coach Juan Castillo, which was surprising because he and head coach Sean McDermott have a long history together; they worked on Andy Reid’s staff in Philadelphia from 2001-10. Castillo took over at defensive coordinator for McDermott when McDermott was fired by Reid after the 2010 season. The Bills o-line wasn’t expected to be good and they weren’t. They had to overcome losing a pair of veterans in center Eric Wood and Pro Bowl guard Richie Incognito.

DENVER BRONCOS:
When the Broncos hired Vic Fangio as head coach, it was widely reported that Gary Kubiak — former Broncos head coach and long-time friend of team president John Elway – would become Fangio’s offensive coordinator. Then a few days after Fangio was hired, there was a change of plan. Kubiak surprisingly left Denver to take the OC job with the Minnesota Vikings. Bizarre.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:
Speaking of bizarre, this was one of the more unexpected moves of the offseason. The Colts offensive line was arguably the most improved offensive line in football and a big reason why the team made the postseason. Yet soon after they lost to the Chiefs in the divisional playoffs, o-line coach Dave DeGuglielmo was fired. This was a surprise.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS:
Running backs coach Tyrone Wheatley, who was fired earlier this month, had been hired by Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone in 2017. Wheatley previously worked on Marrone’s staffs at Syracuse and with the Buffalo Bills. He might have been the fall guy for running back malcontent Leonard Fournette.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS:
The Vikings chose not to renew the contract of special teams coordinator Mike Priefer, who had been with the team since 2011. He is now the special teams coordinator with the Cleveland Browns.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS:
No coach spends more time with the players than the strength staff, and head strength and conditioning coach Chris Carlisle had been a staple of the team since 2010. He was hired by Pete Carroll at USC in 2009 and followed him to Seattle a year later. This is the second offseason in a row where the Seahawks have made significant changes to core members of the staff that came over from USC. Last year, they fired Kris Richard, who had been the defensive coordinator. This year, Carlisle was let go.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS:
New Bucs head coach Bruce Arians hired Todd McNair to be his running backs coach. McNair, a former NFL player who last coached in 2009 for USC, had been out of coaching since then – perhaps due to his alleged involvement in the Reggie Bush-related scandal at USC. This was a good opportunity for McNair to get back into the game – Arians was McNair’s coach back when he played at Temple.

17 Facts About the Coaches in This Weekend’s NFL Divisional Playoff Games

By HCR Staff | Jan. 10, 2019

With the four NFL Divisional Playoff games taking place this weekend, here are some notes regarding the coaching staffs for all eight teams in action:

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Colts:
• Head coach Frank Reich finished tied for eighth in 2018 with a Head Coach Ranking grade of 7.4.

• The Colts are the only team in the playoffs with two first-year coordinators (OC Nick Sirianni, DC Matt Eberflus)

Chiefs:
• Head coach Andy Reid finished tied for second in 2018 with a Head Coach Ranking grade of 7.9.

• Reid led all coaches in three of the five HCR factors: Play Calling (8.2), Personnel (8.4), and Game Plan (8.2).

DALLAS COWBOYS at LOS ANGELES RAMS

Cowboys:
• Head coach Jason Garrett finished tied for 13th with a Head Coach Ranking grade of 7.0.

• The Cowboys are one of two playoff teams that have former NFL head coaches at both offensive coordinator (Scott Linehan) and defensive coordinator (Rod Marinelli).

Rams:
• Head coach Sean McVay finished tied for second in 2018 with a Head Coach Ranking grade of 7.9.

• Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips was the head coach in Dallas immediately preceding Jason Garrett.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Chargers:
• Head coach Anthony Lynn finished tied for eighth in 2018 with a Head Coach Ranking grade of 7.4.

• Lynn was an assistant coach with the New York Jets from 2009-14 and with the Buffalo Bills in 2015, so he’s got more experience than most coaching against the Patriots.

• The Chargers are the other playoff team that has former NFL head coaches at both offensive coordinator (Ken Whisenhunt) and defensive coordinator (Gus Bradley).

Patriots:
• Belichick finished sixth in 2018 with a Head Coach Ranking of 7.6.

• Of the eight head coaches still in the playoffs, Bill Belichick is the only one who cut his teeth as a defensive coach. Of course, he’s also won five Super Bowls – three more than the other seven head coaches combined.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Eagles:
• Head coach Doug Pederson finished tied for 18th in 2018 with a Head Coach Ranking grade of 6.9.

• Pederson is currently a perfect 4-0 in the postseason.

Saints:
• Head coach Sean Payton finished No. 1 in Head Coach Ranking for 2018 with a grade of 8.0.

• Payton’s first NFL coaching job was with the Eagles (quarterbacks coach in 1997).

HCR Picks for NFL Wild Card Weekend, Both ATS and Moneyline

By HCR Staff | Jan. 4, 2019

After two seasons of picking winners – both against the spread and straight up with the moneyline – Head Coach Ranking has found consistent success with a methodology based solely on the combination of past performance and our proprietary HCR grades.

As a reminder, HCR did an internal study during the second half of last season that produced a 71 percent success rate picking NFL winners against the spread over a seven-week stretch of the 2017 NFL season. We made these recommendations using HCR data – and only HCR data.

While we didn’t make picks in 2017 until midway through the season – so that we could gather as much data as possible – we started making picks in Week 3 this season. And even including results from the final two weeks of the season (when betting results can get skewed because some teams are out of the playoffs and playoff teams are resting starters), HCR picks were positive.

Over the past two seasons, HCR’s picks against the spread have had a combined 57 percent success rate.

Even more impressive: Picking winners with the moneyline, HCR has a 64 percent success rate for 2017-18.

Again, our picks rely solely on HCR’s grading of each head coach’s in-game decision-making – no analysis of players, injury reports, home and away data, etc.

With that in mind, here are HCR’s Wild Card Weekend picks against the spread, using consensus lines as of Wednesday afternoon. These picks are all based on HCR data and do not reflect opinions of any HCR staff (home team in CAPS):

Indianapolis (+1) vs. HOUSTON

Seattle (+2) vs. DALLAS

BALTIMORE (-2.5) vs. L.A. Chargers

CHICAGO (-6) vs. Philadelphia

Last Week: 6-6

Season to Date: 80-77-6

NOTE: All four of our Moneyline picks this week are the same as our pointspread picks.

Key Observations From Week 17 in the NFL

By HCR Staff | Dec. 31, 2018

Here are some key observations from the final week of the 2018 NFL regular season:

• The Cleveland Browns clearly will be a contending team in 2019, and one of their best players is wide receiver Antonio Callaway. He is one of the most natural receivers in the league, and he also is a dangerous kick returner. If mid-season pickup Breshad Perriman continues to improve, then the trio of Callaway, Perriman and Jarvis Landry will form a terrific receiving group for quarterbacks Baker Mayfield. Add in tight end David Njoku, and the Browns are going to put up points.

• Congratulations to the Philadelphia Eagles for clinching a playoff spot. While Carson Wentz remains their future and franchise quarterback, backup quarterback Nick Foles brings a different and more calming influence to the Eagles offense. One thing he possibly does better than Wentz is playing within himself. Wentz, of course, is a marvelous athlete, and he has a strong belief that he can exert his physical will on every game. While this is admirable, this trait often leads him to play out of control and in a frenzy at times. Foles, on the other hand, takes what the defense gives him and understand precisely what he can or cannot do. As a result, the Eagles have looked more efficient on offense with Foles in recent weeks.

• The Arizona Cardinals played one of their better games of the season but, ironically, it also may have been the last game for head coach Steve Wilks. If that is the case, one issue Cardinals management will have to contend with will be another potential rebuilding of the defensive philosophy. When Wilks came into the job, he started transforming the Cardinals’ defensive personnel and that could be an issue that will hinder progress in 2019.

• It has been fashionable lately to criticize Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins for the team’s failures. We see it somewhat differently, however. One of the big personnel failures for the Vikings in recent years has been the neglect of their offensive line. This unit will have to be a priority in the offseason. The Indianapolis Colts have shown what a rebuilt offensive line can do, and that is a model for the Vikings to emulate.

• We remain steadfast in our belief that San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best young head coaches in the game. However, he desperately needs a strong turn of luck in the injury department. In Sunday’s loss to the Rams, the 49ers lost yet another running back when promising undrafted rookie Jeff Wilson was carted off; starting guard Laken Tomlinson also was carted off with what appeared to be a serious leg injury. We see the 49ers as one of the surprise teams for 2019 and a contender for the division… if they can stay healthy.

• The Los Angeles Chargers offense needs to get untracked in a hurry. Once again, they played an uninspiring game on Sunday, letting Denver hang around for far too long. We feel that recent injuries to running backs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler have brought the offense to a halt. As good as quarterback Philip Rivers is, we feel the Chargers need to have a robust running game if they are going to advance in the playoffs.

HCR ATS Picks for Week 17 in the NFL

By HCR Staff | Dec. 27, 2018

With another week of data at our disposal, Head Coach Ranking can project 12 pointspread winners in Week 17 NFL games.

As a reminder, HCR did an internal study during the second half of last season that produced a 71 percent success rate picking NFL winners against the spread over a seven-week stretch of the 2017 NFL season. We made these recommendations using HCR data – and only HCR data.

Again, our picks rely solely on HCR’s grading of each head coach’s in-game decision-making – no analysis of players, injury reports, home and away data, etc.

One note: If the HCR differential between the opposing coaches is between 0 and .2, we will not make a pick on that game. Four games this week fall into that category: Lions-Packers, Browns-Ravens, Falcons-Buccaneers and Dolphins-Bills.

With that in mind, here are HCR’s Week 16 picks against the spread, using consensus lines as of Wednesday afternoon. These picks are all based on HCR data and do not reflect opinions of any HCR staff (home team in CAPS):

N.Y. GIANTS (-6) vs. Dallas

KANSAS CITY (-13.5) vs. Oakland

NEW ORLEANS (-9) vs. Carolina

N.Y. Jets (+13.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND

Philadelphia (-6.5) vs. WASHINGTON

Jacksonville (+6.5) vs. HOUSTON

Indianapolis (-3) vs. TENNESSEE

Cincinnati (+14.5) vs. PITTSBURGH

Chicago (+4.5) vs. MINNESOTA

DENVER (+6.5) vs. L.A. Chargers

Arizona (+13.5) vs. SEATTLE

San Francisco (+10) vs. L.A. RAMS

Last Week: 5-6

Season to Date: 74-71-6

ABOUT HCR

Headcoachranking.com assigns a grade to the in-game performance of NFL head coaches each week.  Our knowledgeable graders analyze each head coach’s performance in 5 key areas of decision making. After determining their “HCR” (Head Coach Ranking), we rank them from best to worst. HCR rankings are posted every Tuesday of the NFL season, and fans will be able to track each coach’s performance throughout the season.

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