Head Coach Ranking

Throw Out All The Old ‘Metrics’ In Predicting The NFL Season – 2020 Will Be The Most Fascinating Season In NFL History

By HCR Staff | August 27, 2020

The NFL season is nearly upon us, and the football debates – and predictions – will heat up and escalate as well.

Based on some Vegas lines this morning, the Kansas City Chiefs are seen as the best team (an O/U win total of 11.5) and the Jacksonville Jaguars as the worst (an O/U win total of 4.5).

At least that’s the conventional wisdom.  And why not?  The Chiefs appear loaded, they’ve gotten their best players under long term contracts, and they had another speed-laden draft.  On the other hand, the Jaguars look like a mess.  They’re unproven at the QB position, they’ve unloaded a lot of talent on defense, and their division opponents all appear on the rise.

But we’re not so sure how Vegas sees it today is how it’s going to play out.  Our instinct is that COVID is the most formidable opponent all 32 NFL head coaches have ever seen, and we’re pretty sure that not all 32 are going to respond with poise and good Plan B’s and C’s.

If we’re right, every traditional metric you might be using to assess the upcoming season may be irrelevant, and worse, completely useless.

For example, every NFL head coach values stable routine in their preparation.  They want clear and precise schedules, planning, and the minimization of unforeseen events.  There’s a reason the very best head coaches have had long tenures; they’ve had a lot of reps – and years – perfecting their routines.

One of the most important measuring sticks for every head coach’s preparation is the use of preseason games.  There’s a rhythm to every training camp, and it revolves around the preseason game schedule.  Preseason games are the dress rehearsals for everything – game reps for players, meeting times and protocols for coaches, logistics of travel, sharpening game management skills, etc.

Now, of course, there are no preseason games, and consequently, no measuring stick.  This will unnerve some head coaches.  Their speculations and educated guesses about the status of their team won’t have a platform to yield data that’ll confirm or reject their thoughts. 

In addition to the lack of preseason games, scrimmages with other teams also have been eliminated.  That’s a loss of more data, more information.

Now add on top of all this, the stress of making sure your entire football operation is operating on a daily basis per COVID safety protocols – protocols all 32 head coaches have never had to deal with.

We think that every NFL team is operating right now in a darker closet than they think.  Some will respond nimbly, others will panic.

Right now, the Chiefs are looking at – on paper – a talented roster.  Right now, the Jaguars are looking at – on paper – a less talented roster.

But Andy Reid has never had to deal with this type of preseason, and neither has Doug Marrone.  Most importantly, their players have never had to deal with it either.

Are we absolutely sure Chiefs players will respond better?  Maybe – but everything this season is one of first impression. And everything we’re thinking right now, according to the traditional metrics, could be wildly wrong.

The “Kids” Are Not Alright

By HCR Staff | August 4, 2020

The “kids” are not alright. 

As the season approaches (whatever that may or may not look like), many players have questions and concerns surrounding plans regarding “return to play” conditions and protocols.

Players throughout college football are beginning to openly express a collective disdain of the status quo. They are mobilizing as they realize the “amateur” sport they play generates the revenue necessary to fund other athletic endeavors as well as the rich salaries of athletic administrators. There are entire athletic administration legacies built on the backs of these athletes while they receive an “educational opportunity”.

Take the White family for example. Patriarch Kevin White is the Athletic Director at Duke while his sons, Danny (UCF) and Brian (FAU) have similar Athletic Director roles.  Daughter Mariah Chappell waits for her opportunity but for now is an assistant athletic director at SMU. Another son Mike isn’t in administration, but rather the head basketball coach at Florida. That’s a lot of wealth concentrated in one family due to the work of free labor.

The deeply flawed collegiate model created a favorable business model for many years that allowed family members to hire other family members and others they owed favors to. The strains of this model are now showing and the players are now ready to fight for their interests.

It didn’t have to come to this.

The activism is a consequence of how disconnected athletic directors and conference leaders are from these players. They hear the players, but never really listened. They never thought they had to take them seriously. Pre-pandemic, the players had a hard time mobilizing and were easily distracted by shoes and completely worthless name and likeness legislation.  (Name and likeness legislation is still that- just legislation- nothing has been codified – as of now it’s still a topic of discussion and has not made its way into the 452 page rule manual. )

So how is a coach to respond?

They are caught in the middle. They have a loyalty to the institution but also to their players.

Coaches may not be able to fix much of the above. After all, they don’t make up the rules regarding compensation nor do they make decisions regarding safety protocols.

In a previous article, we talked about how coaches need to allow players to have a connection to the larger campus community.

Coaches also must stop infantilizing players and be mindful of how they talk to and about the players. Language matters.

Let’s examine the common use of the word ‘kid” to describe athletes.

I used the word at the onset of the article because most readers would know which “kids’ I was referring to. That is problematic.

Using “kids” to describe athletes is a bad habit. It’s one I try to work out of my own vocabulary. It’s said without malice, but it is damaging. It’s cold and impersonal. More importantly it ignores the fact that these young people are actually adults. By calling them “kids” we reduce them to a level beneath coaches and other adults.

It is no coincidence that they are commonly referred to as “kids” and the NLI (National Letter of Intent), the document that binds a player to a school reflects that they are treated as kids even when they are adults. A player over the age of 18, still needs a parent or guardian signature on the NLI. They need a parent signature until they are 21. Don’t believe me? Check it out. (Page 6). A person can legally sign a contract at the age of 18 everywhere but in college athletics.

They aren’t kids. They are young adults just trying to figure things out.  They don’t have the life experience that others do and they are going to make mistakes just like we all did and do.

You likely know of players that have been through so much in their lives and were forced to take on adult responsibilities at a young age. Their experiences, perseverance and mental toughness should be applauded and recognized. However, because they are “kids”, they aren’t taken as seriously.  

There are some coaches that takes pride in not knowing people’s names. (If it sounds silly, it’s even sillier when you see this belief, practiced.) At the heart of this sentiment is a saying that I shudder when I type it the way I do when I heard it: “Make me learn your name”.  It’s a way of saying “I will remember you when you make a play.”

It’s a lame attempt to be humorous. It’s next-level arrogant.

Here’s a well-kept secret: Many coaches, including head coaches don’t know the names of all the players on their roster. This goes for athletic directors as well.

If the program or department is a “family” as many claim, the least that can be done is knowing the name of the “family” members.

It’s not only important to know all of your players’ names, but to pronounce them correctly. It’s important to call them what they want to be called and not what makes things easier for you.

At HCR, we love football. We want to see people in football treated with respect. We want the players to have a positive experience. We want players to be respected.

When asked, many coaches will say they got into the coaching profession to influence and help young people. We believe them. What gets lost along the way is that we don’t acknowledge the humanity of the people playing the games or their sacrifices. Take a look at the respect that boxing announcer Jim Lampley has towards boxers in this clip. When is the last time you heard anyone in football speak this glowingly of players?

In early June, we saw many coaches issue statements about social conditions in the country. A fair number of these coaches vowed to do what they could to combat injustice and issues in their own program.  Will they uphold their promises made in these statements? Or will this be lost as we move into the competitive season? We understand that change often is gradual. We think a good place to start is with the language used to discuss players and knowing their names. It’s a simple ask.

Anticipated Changes To NFL Norms In 2020

By Juan Lozano | July 6, 2020

NFL teams have received the go-ahead from the league office to start training camp on time. There are going to be some changes to the preseason. Specifically, the preseason schedule has been shortened from four games to two and teams will only be permitted to conduct camp at their facilities. 

All of this of course could change. 

Fluctuating regional conditions may impact what teams are permitted to do. If there is government involvement that is unfavorable to individual team interests, a league that is obsessed with parity has to make a decision on whether it wants one team practicing while another is forced to limit or shut down operations.

Even if teams do not shut down operations, they will be forced to confront new business realities. Here are some of the ways we think the NFL changes in 2020 and possibly beyond. 

We think that the area that will be the most different in 2020 will be player evaluation and the fan experience. 

We see these following activities being eliminated or significantly altered in 2020: 

PLAYER EVALUATION

Tuesday Workouts of Street Free Agents–  Tuesday is generally the player’s off-day in the NFL.  The football facility is clear of players on the off-day. This is a day where the player personnel department may bring in free agent players to work out in the hopes of possibly signing them on the spot or to keep in mind for down the road. We are hearing that teams do not plan on having players fly in and work out in the facility. There is too much risk involved.  How are teams going to kick the tires on free agents? This is going to be a significant challenge in a year where we can anticipate greater roster composition fluctuations.

College Campus Scouting Activities–  In a previous article, we mentioned that scouts are probably not going to be allowed into a college football team’s building. We stand by and double down on that. It will be difficult for NFL teams to obtain information on prospects playing a college season. If college football becomes a spring sport in 2020, evaluating players for a spring 2021 NFL draft becomes that much more difficult.

College All-Star Games–  These games occur after the holiday break, when travel and possibly virus exposure will be at its highest. We have to question whether it is wise to bring so many people together (coaches, scouts, players). 

The value of these games is not the game itself. Rather, it’s the nearly week-long set of interview sessions and practices. Scouts may have to come up with an alternative to sitting in a room with a prospect and talking football. We anticipate there being a greater number of Zoom calls between prospects and teams.

If college football is played in the spring, are players going to go straight from a season, to all-star games and then a professional football season? Players are going to have very tired legs.

Combine– The essential purpose of the Combine is to evaluate prospects by using standard metrics and to obtain medical information.  

The Combine has taken on additional importance in recent years even aside from player evaluation. The Combine has become a place for people in the industry to meet up and talk shop. Increased media attention of the week-long event has also generated some fan interest. There’s just a lot of people in Indianapolis during Combine week.  

It’s an important event for sure.

We have a few logistical questions if the Combine does go off according to plan:

  • Are team representatives going to be on the field testing with their stopwatches?  
  • Will the bench press platform be cleaned after each use?  
  • Will players have interview sessions in close quarters with team representatives?

We anticipate that there will be greater limitations and fewer opportunities for teams to make in-person player evaluations. Thus a player’s game tape is going to be much more important and a bigger part of the evaluation process.  

If teams are going to rely more on game tape, there is an increased importance in hiring experienced scouts that do more than just gather information. Teams have to hire a scouting staff that can evaluate and project talent. It takes talent to evaluate talent.  

The emphasis on game film will hurt small school players. It will make it harder for them to get noticed. The film quality at the lower levels isn’t as good and the “level of competition” arguments grow louder. (This would be especially true if teams are only permitted to play a conference schedule in 2020. Thus an intriguing prospect will not play against top-flight competition). It’ll be harder for small school prospects to get the benefit of the doubt without the in-person evaluations. 

The fan experience will be fundamentally altered as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. These are some of those fan experiences that we think will go away in 2020 and maybe longer. 

Open Access During Training Camp– Training camp will be different in 2020. We anticipate that camps will be closed to the public.  (Packers fans: We think the days of lining Oneida Street so that children can lend a bike to a player in exchange for getting to carry their helmet are over.) Stadium tours are likely done as well. 

Jumping Into The Stands–  There may be no fans in the stands. But even if there are some fans, we think we might have seen the last “Lambeau Leap” for awhile. 

Pregame–  The Dallas Cowboys walk through a fan area to get to the field. We can’t see fans being allowed to be close to the players in Dallas or anywhere else. We don’t think anybody will be allowed on the field that isn’t participating or contributing to the game.

Don’t be surprised at what changes there are in the NFL in 2020. We certainly won’t be.

Opinions expressed are solely of the author and do not express the views or opinions of Headcoachranking.com.

Catching Up With Some Curious Coaching Moves Around the NFL

By HCR Staff | Jan. 29, 2019

While the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams prepare for Super Bowl LIII, there’s been plenty of activity around the NFL as the other 30 teams evaluate and make adjustments to their coaching staffs. Amid all the Super Bowl hoopla, here’s a rundown of some recent activity you may have missed:

ATLANTA FALCONS:
While head coach Dan Quinn survived a disappointing season, the Falcons did fire all three of their coordinators – offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, defensive coordinator Marquand Manuel and special teams coordinator Keith Armstrong. It would appear that this coming season will be critical for Quinn. Dirk Koetter is the new OC. Quinn takes over as DC. The new special teams coordinator is Ben Kotwica, formerly with the Washington Redskins.

BUFFALO BILLS:
The Bills fired offensive line coach Juan Castillo, which was surprising because he and head coach Sean McDermott have a long history together; they worked on Andy Reid’s staff in Philadelphia from 2001-10. Castillo took over at defensive coordinator for McDermott when McDermott was fired by Reid after the 2010 season. The Bills o-line wasn’t expected to be good and they weren’t. They had to overcome losing a pair of veterans in center Eric Wood and Pro Bowl guard Richie Incognito.

DENVER BRONCOS:
When the Broncos hired Vic Fangio as head coach, it was widely reported that Gary Kubiak — former Broncos head coach and long-time friend of team president John Elway – would become Fangio’s offensive coordinator. Then a few days after Fangio was hired, there was a change of plan. Kubiak surprisingly left Denver to take the OC job with the Minnesota Vikings. Bizarre.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:
Speaking of bizarre, this was one of the more unexpected moves of the offseason. The Colts offensive line was arguably the most improved offensive line in football and a big reason why the team made the postseason. Yet soon after they lost to the Chiefs in the divisional playoffs, o-line coach Dave DeGuglielmo was fired. This was a surprise.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS:
Running backs coach Tyrone Wheatley, who was fired earlier this month, had been hired by Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone in 2017. Wheatley previously worked on Marrone’s staffs at Syracuse and with the Buffalo Bills. He might have been the fall guy for running back malcontent Leonard Fournette.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS:
The Vikings chose not to renew the contract of special teams coordinator Mike Priefer, who had been with the team since 2011. He is now the special teams coordinator with the Cleveland Browns.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS:
No coach spends more time with the players than the strength staff, and head strength and conditioning coach Chris Carlisle had been a staple of the team since 2010. He was hired by Pete Carroll at USC in 2009 and followed him to Seattle a year later. This is the second offseason in a row where the Seahawks have made significant changes to core members of the staff that came over from USC. Last year, they fired Kris Richard, who had been the defensive coordinator. This year, Carlisle was let go.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS:
New Bucs head coach Bruce Arians hired Todd McNair to be his running backs coach. McNair, a former NFL player who last coached in 2009 for USC, had been out of coaching since then – perhaps due to his alleged involvement in the Reggie Bush-related scandal at USC. This was a good opportunity for McNair to get back into the game – Arians was McNair’s coach back when he played at Temple.

17 Facts About the Coaches in This Weekend’s NFL Divisional Playoff Games

By HCR Staff | Jan. 10, 2019

With the four NFL Divisional Playoff games taking place this weekend, here are some notes regarding the coaching staffs for all eight teams in action:

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Colts:
• Head coach Frank Reich finished tied for eighth in 2018 with a Head Coach Ranking grade of 7.4.

• The Colts are the only team in the playoffs with two first-year coordinators (OC Nick Sirianni, DC Matt Eberflus)

Chiefs:
• Head coach Andy Reid finished tied for second in 2018 with a Head Coach Ranking grade of 7.9.

• Reid led all coaches in three of the five HCR factors: Play Calling (8.2), Personnel (8.4), and Game Plan (8.2).

DALLAS COWBOYS at LOS ANGELES RAMS

Cowboys:
• Head coach Jason Garrett finished tied for 13th with a Head Coach Ranking grade of 7.0.

• The Cowboys are one of two playoff teams that have former NFL head coaches at both offensive coordinator (Scott Linehan) and defensive coordinator (Rod Marinelli).

Rams:
• Head coach Sean McVay finished tied for second in 2018 with a Head Coach Ranking grade of 7.9.

• Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips was the head coach in Dallas immediately preceding Jason Garrett.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Chargers:
• Head coach Anthony Lynn finished tied for eighth in 2018 with a Head Coach Ranking grade of 7.4.

• Lynn was an assistant coach with the New York Jets from 2009-14 and with the Buffalo Bills in 2015, so he’s got more experience than most coaching against the Patriots.

• The Chargers are the other playoff team that has former NFL head coaches at both offensive coordinator (Ken Whisenhunt) and defensive coordinator (Gus Bradley).

Patriots:
• Belichick finished sixth in 2018 with a Head Coach Ranking of 7.6.

• Of the eight head coaches still in the playoffs, Bill Belichick is the only one who cut his teeth as a defensive coach. Of course, he’s also won five Super Bowls – three more than the other seven head coaches combined.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Eagles:
• Head coach Doug Pederson finished tied for 18th in 2018 with a Head Coach Ranking grade of 6.9.

• Pederson is currently a perfect 4-0 in the postseason.

Saints:
• Head coach Sean Payton finished No. 1 in Head Coach Ranking for 2018 with a grade of 8.0.

• Payton’s first NFL coaching job was with the Eagles (quarterbacks coach in 1997).