Head Coach Ranking

NFL Week 14 Monday Coaching Observations

By HCR Staff | Dec. 9, 2019

Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll’s offensive game plan was a dud. Sunday’s home game against the Baltimore Ravens for the Bills was the biggest in years, and it offered them a chance to notch a double-digit win total for the first time since 1999. Expectations were high, and we were excited to see how the Bills would attack the game. Offensively, and given the Ravens’ struggles against the run in their home victory against the 49ers, we fully expected the Bills one-two running back punch of Frank Gore and Devin Singletary to be featured prominently. We were wrong. Very, very wrong. Instead, Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll put the game in quarterback Josh Allen’s hands, to disastrous results. For whatever reason, Daboll was not patient with the running game, even though there were moments of obvious success against the Ravens on the ground. The Bills have a roster full of talented and ascending young players, and we felt they were well-positioned to win this game against the Ravens. However, the offensive game plan was subpar, and we feel integral to their loss.

The Green Bay Packers secured a victory against the Washington Redskins, but it wasn’t easy and it wasn’t pretty, as Packers head coach Matt LaFleur was outcoached by Redskins interim head coach Bill Callahan.  The Packers may be leading the NFC North at the moment, but in our view, they’re not a real threat to win the NFC. Matt LaFleur may have 10 wins in his rookie season, but he still has a long way to go as a head coach. That’s okay, as he’s never been a head coach before, and with more repetitions, he may get much better. In this game, however, he was outclassed by Bill Callahan. Strategically, Callahan has done two things very well. First, he’s simplified every offensive game plan. In short, he’s decided to do fewer things, but do those things well. He’s largely succeeded, as Washington has been competitive in nearly every game since he’s taken over. Second, he’s emphasized the running game, and this has served to shorten the game for Washington, and shorten possessions for their opponents. Defensive coordinator Greg Manusky had a terrific game plan yesterday as well. Washington ran a very disciplined pass rush against Packers QB Aaron Rodgers–they never got too hard up field, and largely succeeded in keeping Rodgers in the pocket, where he showed impatience and irritability because he couldn’t get outside. 

San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan and New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton demonstrated yesterday that when offenses are operating at a high-tempo, there is not much defensive coordinators can do. Going into yesterday’s game, 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh and Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen had received a lot of attention this year for their work. No matter how good they might have been prior to yesterday’s game, however, both had their defenses undressed. The defensive performances were completely inept, and much of it was due to the quick tempo displayed by the offenses. Shanahan and Payton are among the elite playcallers in the game, and one of the reasons why is because the playcalls tend to come in quickly. They are decisive and bold–there isn’t much hesitation. That decisiveness makes it difficult at times for defensive coordinators to adjust.

We’ve been tough on Denver Broncos rookie offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello, but yesterday’s effort against the Houston Texans was masterful. The Broncos completely decimated the Texans on their home turf yesterday, and much of the credit goes to Broncos offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello. Scangarello finally has the Broncos offense operating at a higher tempo. The Broncos seemed quicker out of the huddle yesterday, and their energy level on offense was as high as we’ve seen it all year. Rookie offensive coordinators are no different than rookie players–everyone needs additional repetitions in order to get better. Perhaps that’s all Scangarello needed.  

Alternatively, Texans head coach Bill O’Brien failed miserably at avoiding the big game let down. In Week 13, the Texans scored a huge home victory against the New England Patriots in primetime. In Week 14, they were poised to maintain distance in the AFC South race as they were hosting a losing Broncos team. The biggest issue, in our view, confronting O’Brien going into this week was to have his team take the Broncos just as seriously as they took the Patriots. After all, O’Brien spent a number of years in New England under Bill Belichick, and he surely has seen Belichick be sensitive to this issue. Well, O’Brien didn’t pass the test. It seemed as if he posted all the glowing reviews from national media about the Texans after their victory over the Patriots on their locker room wall. The Texans simply didn’t show up in this game, and that is a reflection of coaching.

Every door in the Jacksonville Jaguars organization now has an EXIT sign on it, and it isn’t pretty. Yes, the Jaguars have had a tough season. And yes, they no longer are relevant. However, when you’re facing a losing team that is traveling 3000 miles to play you at home, mustering a professional effort shouldn’t be that hard. The entire Jaguars organization embarrassed themselves yesterday, and the responsibility lies with owner Shad Khan, general managers Tom Coughlin and David Caldwell, and head coach Doug Marrone. We simply didn’t see much effort or pride.  

Setting aside the officiating blunders, the Patriots had opportunities to beat the Kansas City Chiefs yesterday, but they simply weren’t good enough.  The Patriots simply can’t score in the red zone. They also can’t score, on offense, outside of the red zone. The reason isn’t coaching, and the reason isn’t lack of effort, The reason is Bill Belichick’s failure as a general manager. He simply left the cupboard bare on offense. The Patriots don’t have any explosion on offense, and it’s simply a talent issue. It’s a shame, because the defense is good enough to win a Super Bowl. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is trying, but there’s only so much scheming you can do to cover up the lack of physical talent. Going forward, the best the Patriots can do on offense is to maintain ball security, and convert any short fields the defense gives them. 

NFL Week 7 Thursday Night Football Coaching Observations

By HCR Staff | Oct. 18, 2019

HCR is not a fan of Thursday night football games. Never have been, and never will be.

One reason is that we don’t think it is safe for the players.  For that reason alone, we cannot support Thursday Night Football. Another reason is that the short week simply doesn’t give coaches any time to prepare, and that leads to a disappointing product.

We submit into evidence last night’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos.

It was a sloppy affair, and it’s too bad that a traditionally tough divisional game was subjected to a short week. Both head coaches had major lapses, but Broncos head coach Vic Fangio’s were particularly egregious.

As we always say here at HCR, the first rule of head coaching is: Do Not Harm Your Own Team. In other words, beat your opponent, not yourself. Unfortunately for Broncos fans, Fangio broke this rule in the first quarter.

After watching their Broncos open the game with a nice touchdown drive, Broncos fans had their stadium rocking. Broncos players were high with confidence, and the Chiefs, confronting a two-game losing streak, already were behind. Everything was setting up nicely for Fangio…until he decided to attempt a two-point try after a penalty.

We get all the excitement about two-point tries, but when you’re the Broncos at 2-4 playing a great team and your beleaguered offense has managed to give you a lead, kicking the PAT for a 7-0 lead is not a bad thing. Most importantly, if you go for the two-point try and fail, it is a downer and a momentum killer.

Fangio disregarded this reasoning and went for it. Not only did he go for it, he tried to slam it in behind a poor offensive line with a 175 lb back. It failed miserably, and some air went out of the stadium.

Everything went downhill fast for Fangio after that. Fangio’s offense was so poor that Fox color commentator Troy Aikman was completely baffled as to the lack of energy and passion. Fangio also inexplicably tried a fake punt. That failed too. Not surprising, considering that it is a short week game, and one of the consequences is that nobody has any time to try anything exotic.

Fangio’s rookie offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello seems completely overmatched at this point. To be fair to him, he’s playing with a quarterback in Joe Flacco that lacks the necessary athleticism to run the offense that Scangarello wants to run. We’ve mentioned here before that Scangarello has a low energy personality. Well, that may be rubbing off on his offense as Aikman mentioned the lack of energy several times during the telecast.

As for Andy Reid’s Chiefs, it was a get-right type of win after two consecutive losses.

While Reid got the win, his decision to run QB Patrick Mahomes on a quarterback sneak on 4th and 1 early in the game may threaten their season.

As New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels noted earlier in the week, quarterback sneaks are a physical and “courageous” play by quarterbacks, and that it’s a play that is more dangerous than it looks.

Well, Reid’s decision put Mahomes directly into a very physical play, and the consequence was that Mahomes somehow dislocated his right kneecap. Early reports indicate he will be out at least three weeks, but his MRI revealed no additional damage, fortunately. What made Reid’s decision curious was that Mahomes already had been struggling with an compromised left ankle.  

Is it wise to have the league MVP, who already is struggling with a left ankle injury, run a quarterback sneak?

We believe this is a reasonable inquiry of a great coach. What is telling is that later in the game, Chiefs backup QB Matt Moore was confronted with a short-yardage situation, and the play that was sent in from the sidelines was not a quarterback sneak. Rather, the Chiefs decided to run fullback Anthony Sherman.  

Thursday Night Football is here to stay, but it’s not something we look forward to.

NFL Week 3 Monday Coaching Observations

By HCR Staff | Sept. 23, 2019

Here are some observations of head coaches from around the NFL prior to HCR’s Week 3 rankings:

  • The Buffalo Bills are learning how to win.  It doesn’t matter what sport you play, learning how to win and close them out is an art.  The Bills jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but like many young teams, lost concentration in the middle of the game, and eventually trailed. They fought back and the strength of their team, their defense, closed out the win with an interception. It’ll be ugly at times, but 3-0 looks pretty good right now as they grow and get better. 
  • Rookie of the Year candidate…Minnesota Vikings center Garrett Bradbury? Vikings RB Dalvin Cook is back fully healthy and terrorizing defenses, but we attribute the resurgence of the Vikings power run game to rookie center Garrett Bradbury. He looks to be a 10-year mainstay as he brings an explosive athleticism to the position that is rare.
  • John Harbaugh and the 2-point tries.  John Harbaugh is one of the best head coaches in the NFL but we aren’t buying his abdication of extra point tries to “analytics.” If he simply kicked all of the points, his team would have only trailed by a field goal down the stretch.  That is a lot different psychologically than a touchdown.  
  • Freddie Kitchens is not a head coach…yet.  We don’t have anything against Freddie, but he’s just raw as a head coach.  Being a head coach AND a play caller at the same time simply is beyond his capabilities right now.  The end-of-the-game sequence last night against the Rams confirmed that.  Freddie would be better served right now if he gave up the playcalling duties, and that may help ease his transition into the head coach role.
  • Denver Broncos also suffer from coaching inexperience.  The Broncos gave a great effort at Green Bay yesterday,  but they simply aren’t polished enough to win at the moment, and that reflects on the coaching staff. The Broncos are suffering concentration lapses in key moments and performance in those moments is taught and coached.  Vic Fangio, everyone agrees, was a fantastic coordinator.  Offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello was a solid quarterbacks coach, but he’s never called plays under pressure as a coordinator. All of this inexperience shows up with the Broncos – in every key moment this season thus far, they have failed to execute. Just look at Fangio’s body language – ever see Bill Walsh or Bill Belichick look like that? The answer is no, because they’re not hoping for execution since they’ve prepared for these situations.  Fangio might get better, but we’ve also seen this movie before. Joe Bugel, Dick LeBeau, Dave McGinnis,  Dave Wannstedt, and countless others were all highly regarded assistants. But leading as a head coach is a completely different role.
  • The Detroit Lions are being reshaped.  Lions GM Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia are following the Patriot formula, and we see it working.  They want smart, tough players, irrespective of any perceived pedigree and it now is paying dividends. Yes, the Lions blew a first game lead at Arizona, but now they’ve had two gritty wins and we see the confidence growing.  Patricia is a very bright guy, and he puts a lot of effort into game planning — every game has a specific theme.  It may not work every time, but the game planning is reminiscent of his Patriots tenure.
  • Athleticism matters.  Giants QB Daniel Jones showed what can happen when some athleticism is injected into the situation. Yes, Eli Manning is smart, but could he do what Jones did? No. Can Jones become as football-smart as Eli? Absolutely.
  • Prediction: Los Angeles Rams incorporate a fullback. Teams are catching up to the Rams’ offense, but Sean McVay is far too bright and innovative to stand pat.  This is pure speculation,  but we think McVay will begin introducing i-formation looks into his offense. This could be a giant whiff on our part, but we’ll see.  
  • Dak playing for Dak…and Brian Flores growth.  It appeared Dak Prescott played selfishly yesterday.  He knew he was playing an inferior opponent, and he was playing as if he wanted to show off his own skill set.  By doing so, he actually kept the Miami Dolphins in the game far longer than necessary.  As for the Dolphins,  we liked what we saw – a team playing with fight and according to a game plan.  We saw growth from QB Josh Rosen as well.  If he can somehow ever get to a situation that is stable with experienced offensive coaches,  we believe he can be a solid NFL starter.