By HCR Staff | Jan. 31, 2020
Kyle Shanahan’s 2019 HCR of 7.9 finished tied for third (with Bill Belichick), and that was a fairly significant .6 edge over Andy Reid, who finished tied for sixth in our rankings.
Shanahan was the more consistent in-game strategist than Reid throughout the season, and this may manifest in key moments in Sunday’s Super Bowl.
For example, if San Francisco takes an early first quarter 7-0 lead, and Kansas City’s offense faces a long 4th and 1 on its own 45–still in the first quarter–does Reid punt, or does he attempt the fourth down conversion?
In our view, it’s not a debatable call, but as we’ve seen many times, head coaches can feel differently.
It’s these kinds of decisions that alter games, and we think they’re incredibly meaningful. That’s why we quantify this aspect of the game. Based on their respective HCR ratings, and how the spread interacts with our ratings, our proprietary betting algorithm recommends San Francisco on the money line and against the spread.
The numbers suggest that when it comes to decision-making, under game pressure, Shanahan is more reliable, at least in 2019.