Head Coach Ranking

Key Observations From Week 17 in the NFL

By HCR Staff | Dec. 31, 2018

Here are some key observations from the final week of the 2018 NFL regular season:

• The Cleveland Browns clearly will be a contending team in 2019, and one of their best players is wide receiver Antonio Callaway. He is one of the most natural receivers in the league, and he also is a dangerous kick returner. If mid-season pickup Breshad Perriman continues to improve, then the trio of Callaway, Perriman and Jarvis Landry will form a terrific receiving group for quarterbacks Baker Mayfield. Add in tight end David Njoku, and the Browns are going to put up points.

• Congratulations to the Philadelphia Eagles for clinching a playoff spot. While Carson Wentz remains their future and franchise quarterback, backup quarterback Nick Foles brings a different and more calming influence to the Eagles offense. One thing he possibly does better than Wentz is playing within himself. Wentz, of course, is a marvelous athlete, and he has a strong belief that he can exert his physical will on every game. While this is admirable, this trait often leads him to play out of control and in a frenzy at times. Foles, on the other hand, takes what the defense gives him and understand precisely what he can or cannot do. As a result, the Eagles have looked more efficient on offense with Foles in recent weeks.

• The Arizona Cardinals played one of their better games of the season but, ironically, it also may have been the last game for head coach Steve Wilks. If that is the case, one issue Cardinals management will have to contend with will be another potential rebuilding of the defensive philosophy. When Wilks came into the job, he started transforming the Cardinals’ defensive personnel and that could be an issue that will hinder progress in 2019.

• It has been fashionable lately to criticize Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins for the team’s failures. We see it somewhat differently, however. One of the big personnel failures for the Vikings in recent years has been the neglect of their offensive line. This unit will have to be a priority in the offseason. The Indianapolis Colts have shown what a rebuilt offensive line can do, and that is a model for the Vikings to emulate.

• We remain steadfast in our belief that San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best young head coaches in the game. However, he desperately needs a strong turn of luck in the injury department. In Sunday’s loss to the Rams, the 49ers lost yet another running back when promising undrafted rookie Jeff Wilson was carted off; starting guard Laken Tomlinson also was carted off with what appeared to be a serious leg injury. We see the 49ers as one of the surprise teams for 2019 and a contender for the division… if they can stay healthy.

• The Los Angeles Chargers offense needs to get untracked in a hurry. Once again, they played an uninspiring game on Sunday, letting Denver hang around for far too long. We feel that recent injuries to running backs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler have brought the offense to a halt. As good as quarterback Philip Rivers is, we feel the Chargers need to have a robust running game if they are going to advance in the playoffs.

HCR ATS Picks for Week 17 in the NFL

By HCR Staff | Dec. 27, 2018

With another week of data at our disposal, Head Coach Ranking can project 12 pointspread winners in Week 17 NFL games.

As a reminder, HCR did an internal study during the second half of last season that produced a 71 percent success rate picking NFL winners against the spread over a seven-week stretch of the 2017 NFL season. We made these recommendations using HCR data – and only HCR data.

Again, our picks rely solely on HCR’s grading of each head coach’s in-game decision-making – no analysis of players, injury reports, home and away data, etc.

One note: If the HCR differential between the opposing coaches is between 0 and .2, we will not make a pick on that game. Four games this week fall into that category: Lions-Packers, Browns-Ravens, Falcons-Buccaneers and Dolphins-Bills.

With that in mind, here are HCR’s Week 16 picks against the spread, using consensus lines as of Wednesday afternoon. These picks are all based on HCR data and do not reflect opinions of any HCR staff (home team in CAPS):

N.Y. GIANTS (-6) vs. Dallas

KANSAS CITY (-13.5) vs. Oakland

NEW ORLEANS (-9) vs. Carolina

N.Y. Jets (+13.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND

Philadelphia (-6.5) vs. WASHINGTON

Jacksonville (+6.5) vs. HOUSTON

Indianapolis (-3) vs. TENNESSEE

Cincinnati (+14.5) vs. PITTSBURGH

Chicago (+4.5) vs. MINNESOTA

DENVER (+6.5) vs. L.A. Chargers

Arizona (+13.5) vs. SEATTLE

San Francisco (+10) vs. L.A. RAMS

Last Week: 5-6

Season to Date: 74-71-6

Head 2 Head Numbers for Week 17 in the NFL

By HCR Staff | Dec. 26, 2018

As always, Week 17 presents some interesting matchups in the NFL, particularly when it comes to coaches going up against each other. Each week, Head Coach Ranking presents its exclusive Head 2 Head numbers – comparing the rankings of the coaches that are facing off.

Here are a few matchups to watch:

• There is only one game this week between two coaches in Head Coach Ranking’s current top 10: Cleveland at Baltimore. Browns interim head coach Gregg Williams ranks seventh overall with an HCR grade of 7.5. The Ravens’ John Harbaugh is tied for third with a grade of 7.8.

• Why is Week 17 different from all other weeks in the NFL regular season? Here’s why: There are typically never more than seven or eight division matchups in any given week. In Week 17, however, all 16 games are division battles. If familiarity really does breed contempt, then Sunday’s action should be intense.

• Of course, the schedule-makers plan it this way in the hopes of having as many games as possible with playoffs on the line. And there are 11 such games here – although only two games have playoff implications for both teams involved: Sunday night’s Colts-Titans game is a playoff game unto itself, with the winner in and the loser out. In Bears-Vikings, Minnesota clinches a wild-card berth with a win while Chicago, already the NFC North champ, needs a win and a Rams loss to earn a first-round bye.

• Two teams that are in the playoffs have nothing to play for this week: The Dallas Cowboys are locked into the NFL’s fourth seed and the New Orleans Saints are the NFL’s No. 1 seed. Will the head coaches rest most of their starters? It’s always interesting to see how coaches handle this situation.

Check out all the Week 17 Head 2 Head numbers

Top Dog of Week 17

Sean McDermottSean McDermott (Bills at Dolphins)

There was early criticism of Buffalo Bills Head Coach Sean McDermott when he was first given the reigns. Many thought it was a move that indicated a transition or rebuild. Others questioned if his philosophy was compatible with a team that had been built by and played under Rex Ryan. Almost 10 months from now, Bills fans aren’t worried about any of that, they’re preparing for something they haven’t seen in 17 seasons.

There was a lot of chatter regarding McDermott’s 4-3 zone system compared to Ryan’s 3-4 hybrid man system, and the growing pains that would come along with switching systems and playing without a clear starting quarterback. The stats don’t look pretty, but that should attest to McDermott’s coaching. Somehow, someway, and with a little miracle from their friends in Cincinnati, he guided his team to eight wins and a playoff berth.

Going into pre-season, everyone expected the Patriots to claim the AFC East. That left the Bills two spots to end their playoff drought. But with the resurgent Jacksonville Jaguars, and threats like Tennessee, Los Angeles, and Baltimore, hopes looked narrow for Bills fans. Especially after hiring a new coach, and clouds of criticism circulating around him.

That didn’t bother McDermott nor his team. They went out there and won the games they should win, and that’s all anyone can ask for. If it weren’t for Sean McVay and arguably Doug Marrone, Sean McDermott would be a leading candidate for rookie head coach of the year.

Situational Call of Week 17

John HarbaughJohn Harbaugh (Bengals at Ravens)

Earlier in the week, Ravens Head Coach John Harbaugh was upset about the kickoff time being pushed back. He was concerned fewer people would show up to the game. Well, it spared a lot of Ravens fans the disappointment of paying to see their team not only lose to a division rival, but a playoff spot in a gut-wrenching manner. Several of our Situational Calls of the Week have come on the last play, or close to it, and this week’s underlines the importance of making judicious decisions until the clock reaches double zero.

The Bills won their game and the Titans punched their way into the postseason. All that was left was for Baltimore to determine the destinies for all three teams. The game started off promising for the Bills, whose fans were watching anxiously for their 17-year playoff drought to end. The Bengals forced the Ravens to punt on all of their first quarter drives. The Ravens offense really wasn’t able to mount any kind of drive in the first half. Their two scores came off a fumble converted for a FG and a big kickoff return to the Cincinnati 6-yard line which they converted into a touchdown.

Things looked great on Baltimore’s first drive of the second half after the Bengals returned an interception to make it 24-10. However, another special teams error gave the Ravens a relatively shorter field, which they scored a touchdown with. Then the momentum shifted towards the Ravens. They scored on their next two possessions to take the lead 27-24.

The score remained 27-24 until Cincinnati got the ball back at their own 10 with 2:43 to play, and one timeout. Keep in mind, since the pick six at the beginning of the second half, the Ravens defense kept the Bengals off the scoreboard for the entire half until now. They had been playing man coverage for most of this drive and the half, which proved to be successful. The Bengals weren’t driving down the field in any way, they were bailed out by a couple of penalties by the Baltimore defense, one of which negated an interception.

On 4th and 12 at the Baltimore 49, with no timeouts left, and less than a minute to go, the Ravens decided to go with a 2 deep zone defense. Bengals QB Andy Dalton found WR Tyler Boyd, who was lined up in the slot, for a 49-yard touchdown to put the Bengals in front 31-27 with 44 seconds left. In one play, the Ravens went from playoff bound to ending their season, sending Buffalo to its first playoff appearance in 17 seasons.

In situations like these, coaches and coordinators weigh the risks of going man or zone defense. Usually, man is too risky to go with as it relies on the secondary’s ability to keep up with receivers and risks giving up an automatic first down on a penalty, which occurred earlier in the drive twice. However, in this situation it might have been a safer call to go with man. It was working for the most part on this drive and in the half. If a penalty is called, that just means Cincinnati has four more tries at finding the endzone with less time remaining. By going zone, it left playmakers like Tyler Boyd and Andy Dalton to find space and ultimately the endzone.