Head Coach Ranking

W.O.W. – Winners Of The Week (Week 6)

By Juan Lozano and Marc Harper | October 21, 2020

Cleveland @ Steelers– Minkah Fitzpatrick (S)

  • After a Steelers field goal to start the game, Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick intercepts a Baker Mayfield pass and returns it 33 yards for a touchdown. This gave the Steelers a 10-0 lead with just under nine minutes remaining in the quarter. 
  • The Steelers defense was dominant and shut down a Browns offense that had been averaging over 30 points per game this season. 
  • Fitzpatrick has been a steady presence for the Steelers since being acquired last season in a trade with Miami. While the Steelers front gets a lot of credit for wreaking havoc, disrupting opponent passing games and shutting down the run, the secondary, led by Fitzpatrick has done their part as well in re-establishing the Steelers defensive dominance. 

Bengals @ Colts–  Julian Blackmon (S) and Marcus Johnson (WR)- TIE

  • With :39 seconds remaining in the contest, Blackmon, a rookie from Utah intercepted a 3rd down pass from fellow rookie Joe Burrow at the Colts 19-yard line to secure the Colts comeback victory. 
  • Blackmon, a third round pick out of Utah, likely would have been selected earlier had he not torn an ACL in the Pac-12 championship game. We saw Blackmon play throughout his college career and knew he would make plays in the NFL, just not this soon. He’s ahead of schedule. 
  • Johnson, a former undrafted free agent out of Texas, caught five balls for 108 yards. His biggest catch of the game occurred two minutes into the second quarter, trailing 21-0, when he caught a 55-yard bomb to get down to the one-yard line. 
  • Two plays later, the Colts scored, and the comeback was on. Johnson was promoted to the active roster on gameday, and immediately made his mark. If Johnson can keep making plays, his days of being on the practice squad will be long gone. 

Broncos @ Patriots – Michael Ojemudia (CB)

  • To beat the Patriots, the Broncos had to play fantastic defense. Ojemudia is a third-round rookie corner thrust into the defensive backfield rotation for the Broncos. On Sunday, he had seven tackles, deflected a pass, and forced two fumbles. One of the fumbles was recovered and directly lead to three points. 
  • The Patriots offense was uncomfortable all day and receivers struggled to find separation. Ojemudia was a big reason why. 

Lions @ Jaguars- D’Andre Swift (RB)

  • Swift, a 2nd round draft pick in 2020 carried the ball 14 times for 116 yards and two touchdowns in a road victory over the Jaguars and their undrafted rookie sensation running back, James Robinson
  • His first touchdown of the day, a one yard run, with 13:41 remaining in the second quarter put the Lions ahead 14-3 and gave the Lions some cushion. 
  • Swift looks to be the Lions back of the future. The franchise has been attempting to find a dynamic running back since Barry Sanders retired over 20 years ago. They might have found one in Swift. 

Washington @ Giants– Matt Peart (OL)

  • In games involving the Giants and the Jets it just doesn’t seem fair to pick players from those teams in the rare case they achieve victory. These teams are so bad. 
  • The Giants won, and the rules of this column state that I absolutely must pick a player from the Giants. 
  • That being said, Peart’s effort was commendable. He is a rookie third-round pick, making his first start because this year’s first round pick (Andrew Thomas) was disciplined for being late to a Saturday night meeting. Peart played 29 snaps and looked great in both run and pass protection. 
  • Given how bad the Giants offensive line, they will gladly take any production. They could have two future cornerstone offensive lineman with Thomas and Peart. 

Texans @ Titans–  Anthony Firkser (TE)

  • Let’s get it out of the way right here. The Titans do not win without Derrick Henry. But that’s too easy. Firkser replaced an injured Jonnu Smith and had eight catches for 113 yards and a score. He’s got the “next man up” mentality that coaches and front offices look for in a player. 
  • Firkser played at Harvard and had less than 50 catches in his career prior to Sunday. He stepped us as the lead pass catcher in an absolute shootout on Sunday. 
  • He’s also our first player to be his team’s W.O.W. in consecutive weeks. 

Bears @ Panthers- Tashaun Gipson, Sr. (S)

  • On the first drive of the game, the Panthers were facing a 3-and-19 from their own 1-yard line when Gipson intercepted a tipped Teddy Bridgewater pass intended for wide receiver Robby Anderson. The Bears would score three plays later. 
  • Gipson would finish with six tackles and a pass defended in addition to the interception. 
  • Gipson is in his first year with the Bears after having played for the Texans in 2019, Jaguars from 2016-2018 and the Browns from 2012-2015. Gipson is making an impact on his new team. 

Ravens @ Eagles- Justin Tucker (K)

  • The Ravens had an 18-point lead and needed a two-point conversion stop to beat the Eagles. They needed the contribution of kicker Justin Tucker, even if they probably didn’t know it at the time. 
  • Tucker kicked 3 field goals including two in the 4th quarter.  He kicked two 46-yard field goals, one in the second and one late in the fourth as well as a 55-yarder sandwiched in-between, also in the fourth quarter. 
  • Week in and week out, the Ravens can count on Tucker. He’s one of the best kickers we have ever seen. 

Falcons @ Vikings- Keanu Neal (S)

  • The Falcons were up 10-0 with 11:44 in the second quarter when Neal stopped Vikings running back Mike Boone on a fourth down and goal attempt at the one-yard line. 
  • The Vikings were never able to cut the lead to anything less than a double digit lead. 
  • Neal would end up with 6 tackles on the day, including two tackles for loss in a surprising and dominant Falcons win in interim head coach Raheem Morris’ first game as Falcons head coach.

Jets @ Dolphins– Myles Gaskin (RB)

  • Please see our rule above for picking games involving the Jets. 
  • However, Myles Gaskin finished with 18 carries for 91 yards and added four catches out of the backfield in the domination over the Jets. 
  • Gaskin’s performance comes days after flirting with the prospect of bringing in the recently released Le’Veon Bell. The Dolphins are now in the AFC East race and performances from undrafted second-year players like Gaskin are the reason why. Adding Bell might have disrupted the team chemistry. 

Packers @ Bucs– Jamel Dean (CB)

  • Green Bay was up 10-0 and Tampa Bay punted on their first two possessions. They needed a big play and it came from an unlikely source, cornerback Jamel Dean.  The second-year player out of Auburn intercepted an Aaron Rodgers pass and returned it thirty-two yards down the sideline for a Bucs score. 
  • On the next possession, the Bucs would pick off Rodgers again and Tampa Bay would score another touchdown to take the lead.

LA Rams @ 49ers- Ben Garland (OL) and Dan Brunskill (OL)

  • Beyond injuries, the biggest issue for the 49ers this season has been their interior O-line. Two weeks ago, they were brutalized by Fletcher Cox. This Sunday, they had all-world Aaron Donald coming to town. The 49ers, specifically Garland and Brunskill kept Donald far away from the quarterback all day. 
  • Brunskill actually made his debut at guard last year when the Rams came to town and had a miserable day against Donald. This week, he went one-on-one against Donald on seven occasions and got the better of him for most of the night. Keeping that interior pocket clean goes a long way towards the 49ers winning games.

Chiefs @ Bills- Bashaud Breeland (CB)

  • Breeland was in his second game back after serving a four-game suspension for violating the league’s policy on substance abuse. He is vital to the Chiefs defense and was not eased back into the lineup as he took 51 snaps in his first game back against the Raiders. In his second game, against the Bills is when he made a significant impact. 
  • Consistent rain throughout the contest made throwing the ball difficult. Both teams were committed to running the football, thus the secondary and yes even the corners would have to play a role in stopping the run. 
  • Breeland tackled Bills running back Devin Singletary for a six-yard loss on 2nd & 3 at Kansas City 48-yard line with two minutes left in the half. 
  • Breeland’s play set back Buffalo’s drive, as they were now facing 3rd-and -long.  The Bills predictably would try and get a first down by throwing the ball on this wet day. They would not convert on 3rd down and Buffalo had to punt. Kansas City would take a 13-10 lead into halftime.  

Cardinals @ Cowboys- Budda Baker (S)

  • Anybody who has watched a Cardinals game knows how good Budda Baker is. But not many people watch the Cardinals. They have to be on prime time for people to see them and take note. In Monday’s night thrashing of the Cowboys, the Cardinals and especially Baker, “showed out”. 
  • Baker was named the captain prior to Monday’s game due to an injury to Chandler Jones. He did not disappoint. Baker forced a fumble of Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott early and with the game tied towards the end of the first quarter. The Cardinals recovered and scored on the ensuing drive. The rout was on.  For good measure, Baker also intercepted a pass and had seven tackles on the night. It’s clear that Kyler Murray can score points, but the Cardinals will only be as good as their defense. When Baker plays like he did on Monday, they are hard to beat. 

Opinions expressed are solely of the author and do not express the views or opinions of Headcoachranking.com.

NFL Week 6 – Monday Observations

By HCR Staff | Oct. 20, 2020

Obviously, today is Tuesday.  Typically, we publish our Observations on a Monday, but Sunday’s head coaching performances were so bad, that we had to take an extra day to digest what we saw. 

Let’s get to it.

The Football Team’s Losing Culture Will Only Deepen Until They Get A “W”…Any Way They Can.  The entire football world sympathizes with WFT’s head coach Ron Rivera in his cancer fight – everyone wishes him well.  But since he’s coaching, we have to look at his performance, and there’s no way we can agree with what he did on Sunday.

In a see-saw affair against the Giants, his squad scrapped back at :36 left in the 4th quarter to close within 20-19 – WFT now was just an extra point kick away from tying the game, and probably sending it in to overtime. 

But unbelievably – at least to us – Rivera chose to go for the 2-point try, and in his view, the ‘win.’  The try failed, WFT lost, and post-game, Rivera attempted to justify the attempt by (and we’re paraphrasing here) saying he was brought in to win, and that he’ll always go for the win.

We agree with you Coach Rivera; one should always try to win.  However, the key inquiry under these particular circumstances is whether we should try to win right now. 

Tying the game at 20-20 was the better decision here, especially when one considers the micro and macro contexts.  From a micro standpoint, WFT was facing QB Daniel Jones, who has been a turnover machine in his brief career.  So if WFT goes to overtime, it’s not as if they’re having to defend the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.

From a macro standpoint, if WFT goes to overtime, with an extra quarter to pull out a win, a win would have put them into a tie for first place in the NFC East.

Look, WFT has long had a deep, losing culture.  That only changes with W’s – any way one can get them.  Right now, WFT is more adept at kicking extra points than converting 2-point tries.  Kicking the extra point was the best option available to Rivera at the moment, and kicking the extra point would have served the larger purposes of the divisional race and the culture issue.

Mike Zimmer And His 4th Down Philosophy.  After the Vikings’ loss at Seattle and a controversial 4th down attempt, Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer said he’d do the same thing again.  Well, he did it again. 

Trailing 10-0 at home, the Vikings had the ball and a 4th & 1 at the ATL 1, at 11:44 in the second quarter.  HCR is thinking, ‘just kick the FG, get some confidence, and play defense down just 10-3 because you can’t risk going down 3 possessions at 17-0, especially since ATL is showing good energy right now.’ 

Well, Zimmer went the other way. 

He went for the 4th down. 

Of course, he didn’t get it – the Vikings aren’t executing well right now.  The Falcons got the ball, flipped the field, and after an exchange of punts, got another series with good field position and converted for a TD and 17-0.  The Vikings were in catch-up mode all game and eventually got blown out. 

First rule at HCR: do no harm to your own team.  Zimmer keeps violating this one with regularity right now.

Romeo Crennel And How To Extinguish A Season.  The Texans have had an awful start to the season, but showing tremendous grit, fought back in this game against Tennessee to be on the precipice of establishing a two-game winning streak and great momentum for the rest of their season. 

The Texans had first half deficits of 14 and 11 points against a good Titans squad, started the 3rd quarter facing long odds – after all, teams trailing by two possessions with only a half to go have a very small chance of winning.  But Texans interim head coach Romeo Crennel’s defense made some nice adjustments in the third quarter, and pitched a shutout.  On offense, the Texans found a rhythm, and with 1:53 left in the game, actually took the lead at 36-29 after a touchdown.

Now the Texans could kick the extra point, and lead by 8. 

Crennel passed up the kick; he went for the 2-point try…which failed.

The Texans subsequently surrendered a TD to the Titans on the ensuing possession, and lost the game on the first possession in overtime.

We were dumbfounded.  We know there are those out there that support Crennel’s decision, but it simply was the wrong decision in our view.  Let’s look at the micro and macro considerations again.

From a micro standpoint: the Titans were on their heels.  They had lost all momentum.  The Texans had all the momentum; they were showing more fight and enthusiasm than they had all season.  An 8-point lead means that the Titans would have had to score a TD, then convert a two-point try, and then have to deal with an overtime period.  That’s a lot of variables to overcome, even for a good team.  But the most important item to note here is momentum. 

The Texans were sky high after the go-ahead TD, but the failed 2-point try allowed some doubt to creep in; that’s our theory.  We will always maintain that momentum is important in every football game – hell, every sports competition.  Passion drives performance; that’s our position.  We just don’t like anything that shifts any ounce of momentum, and that’s what Crennel did.

Plus, the Texans already had converted THREE previous 4th downs in this game.  Going for the 2-point try was akin to another 4th down play.  So if you’re into metrics like this, what are the chances of going 4-for- 4 on fourth down attempts in the same game?  Doesn’t seem likely to us.

From a macro standpoint: the Texans have been having an awful year.  Head coach fired, traded a great player in wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, etc.  But if they win this game, and in our view, an 8-point lead helps that cause, they’d be on a two-game winning streak.  And a win against an unbeaten team in the division is a massive enthusiasm boost – it’s a long season, and every locker room needs enthusiasm to play it out with passion.  This is the context against which Crennel made his decision.

And to finish out, some other odds and ends from Week 6.

Doug Pederson.  When we watch him manage a game, the phrase that comes to mind is “Helter Skelter.”  He says they are reliant on analytics, but he picks and chooses when he wants to use them.  This doesn’t make sense to us; either you’re all in and trusting your data sets, or you’re not.  There’s no in-between.  The crazy thing is that Pederson is doing a great job of making a depleted squad a tough out, but his in-game decision-making sabotages his own squad – frequently.

Zac Taylor.   If only you could get to the Super Bowl by simply comparing stats.  A 21-0 lead and all the momentum against the Colts, yet he still lost the game.  Clearly, a lot of work to do here in learning how to win.  One should really never leave with an “L” when up 21-0, even if you’re the Bengals.

Mike Vrabel.  The Titans are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, as they’ve put together a big, rough, physically talented squad.  Just with talent alone, they’ll be there at the end with a chance.  Vrabel also is a good tactician, with good knowledge of the rules and how to game them.  However, he can get too cute at times, and that’s what happened Sunday.  The Titans had the ‘going nowhere fast’ Texans down 21-7 and 21-10, but let them back into the game.  Vrabel’s going to be unhappy about that; he knows that they should have controlled the game from start to finish.  To blow a 14-point lead and go down by 7 isn’t excusable for such a talented squad.

Matt Nagy.  Winning close games is the theme for 2020, and it’s going to be with defense.  Nagy keeps promising the arrival of the offense soon, but that’s sounding like your parents telling you Santa is coming.  He’s not, and this Bears offense will struggle all year.  Why? Because Nagy himself only has so many plays; their scheme just isn’t sophisticated enough.  That’s ok; winning on defense is just fine, and Nagy has done a great job with his locker room.

Bill Belichick. One of the best coaches in NFL history is prone to mistakes too, just not nearly as many as anyone else.  But he’ll still make a couple now and then.  On Sunday, he missed on challenging a key run play by running back James White that would have extended a Patriots drive.  He also went for a two-point try far too early in the game, in our view.  Belichick generally has a super firm grasp of the finest details in every game, but this past Sunday, a couple slipped through the cracks.

W.O.W. – Winners Of The Week (Week 5)

By Juan Lozano and Marc Harper | October 14, 2020

Bucs @ Bears– Kyle Fuller (CB)

  • Cornerback Kyle Fuller separated Bucs rookie running back Ke’Shaun Vaughn (last week’s WOW for Tampa Bay) from the football on a 3rd & 10 play from the Bucs 25-yard line near the end of the first half. The play was first ruled an incomplete pass but later the call was reversed and determined to be a completed pass and fumble. Robert Quinn recovered the fumble at the Bucs 27-yard line and the Bears would capitalize and score a touchdown four plays later to amazingly take a 14-13 lead into the half. At one point, early in the second quarter, Tampa Bay had a 13-0 lead.  Fuller’s jarring hit and the forced fumble would prove to the major turning point in the game. 

Rams @ WFT – Troy Reeder (LB)

  • Rams second-year linebacker Troy Reeder was a force against the Washington Football Team on Sunday. The undrafted second-year starter out of the University of Delaware finished with 11 tackles, two sacks, and three pass defended on the day. 
  • The Rams were up 13-7 early in the second quarter and Washington was at their own 36-yard line. Reeder stopped running back J.D. McKissic for a 6-yard reception on 3rd down and WFT was forced to punt. The Rams scored a touchdown on that next drive on to put the game out of Washington’s reach. 
  • Reeder made the Rams roster as an undrafted free agent out of training camp in 2019. He began to make starts down the stretch in his rookie campaign and is becoming a consistent contributor to the club in 2020. Redder was on the field for 58 total snaps on Sunday. 

Bills @ Titans– Anthony Firsker (TE)

  • The rare Tuesday night NFL contest was a close game up until halftime.
  • The Titans were up 14-10 and started a drive from their own ten-yard line after a booming Bills punt. They would go the length of the field to score a touchdown and take the two-score advantage. One big play in the drive came when tight end Anthony Firsker made a first down catch on 3 and 4 from the Buffalo 22-yard line with 27 seconds left in the half. On the next play, Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill ran the ball in to the end zone and extended the Titans lead to 21-10.
  • It was all hands on deck as the Titans week was in flux due to Covid-19- related issues. Tennessee was expected to be without a lot of offensive firepower this game. Wide receiver AJ Brown was declared active before this game and contributed significantly, but fellow wideouts Corey Davis and Adam Humphries were still out and thus many young receivers and tight ends, like Firsker had to step up.
  • Firsker, a third-year undrafted tight end out of Harvard had a total of three catches on the night. But none was bigger than this one that allowed the Titans to extend a drive to make it a two-score game.

Eagles @ Steelers– Chase Claypool (WR)

  • There was fantastic rookie wide receiver play around the NFL on Sunday, but Canadian Chase Claypool easily had the most impactful performance of the day. He had seven catches on 11 targets for 110 yards and three scores. He also added a TD on the ground. Every time the Eagles started to creep back into the game, Claypool responded with a big catch or score. Year after year, the Steelers replace big name WRs with younger players, and year after year they prove they scout and develop WRs better than any team in the NFL.

Cardinals @ NY Jets- Chase Edmonds (RB)

  • It’s not clear the Jets are going to win a game this season. Opponents might take advantage of the opportunity to play the Jets and get reserve players some meaningful reps. Edmonds, the third year running back out of Fordham University, staked his claim for more touches in the Cardinals offense. While Kenyan Drake is the starting back, Edmonds provided a big boost as the primary receiving back against the Jets. He finished with five big catches for 56 yards and added a score on the ground. 

Raiders @ KC Chiefs-Raiders Defensive Line

  • In a game in which the Chiefs scored 32 points, I’d still argue the Raiders defensive won the game. The defensive front caused Patrick Mahomes all types of trouble throughout the entire game, but especially the second half. Mahomes never looked comfortable and missed some throws he normally makes. The Chiefs offense really never got going until the game was out of hand. Mahomes was sacked three times, and under pressure throughout the entire second half. To beat the Chiefs, teams will need to replicate what the Raiders did defensively.

Jaguars @ Texans–  Brandin Cooks (WR)

  • Obviously, Brandin Cooks is a big-name player with a bigger contract. However, expectations were low after an underwhelding season with the Rams in 2019.  On Sunday, he was the main reason for the win. He caught eight of 12 targets for 161 yards and a score. The Texans obviously miss Deandre Hopkins (and David Johnson hasn’t been much help), but Cooks was a bright spot on an offense trying to get it going. He was a big reason why the Texans got their first win of the season. 

Bengals @ Ravens–  Patrick Queen (LB)

  • This was an easy call. The rookie linebacker from LSU forced and recovered a fumble. He later returned another fumble 53 yards for a score. He did all this while leading the team with 9 combined tackles on the day.  The Ravens didn’t play particularly well on offense, but their defense made Joe Burrow uncomfortable the entire day. Queen, playing against his former college teammate, was a big part of that. It’s clear why he was a first-round pick. 

Panthers @ Falcons- Juston Burris (S)

  • With the Panthers leading 20-13 lead with 8:49 left in the game, the Falcons were at the Carolina five-yard line and facing a 3rd & 4.  Safety Justin Burris intercepted a Matt Ryan pass intended for Russell Gage. The two teams would go on to exchange field goals, and the Panthers held onto win this NFC South contest.  A score here would have obviously tied the contest and the outcome may have been different.
  • Burris would finish with 3 tackles, and a pass defended in addition to the interception.  
  • Burris was a Jets fourth-round pick in 2016 and has bounced around going from the Jets, to the Browns, the Raiders, back to the Browns and now the Panthers where it appears he has found a home for the foreseeable future. 

Dolphins @ SF 49ers- Preston Williams (WR)

  • Second-year player Preston Williams had four catches for 106 yards and a touchdown in the Dolphins destruction of the 49ers in Santa Clara. 
  • Three of Williams’ catches were in the first half and were for first downs.  The touchdown came after the rout was on in the second half. 
  • Williams, at 6-5, 210 was undrafted out of Colorado State University after beginning his college career at Tennessee. He declared for the NFL Draft after a standout junior season in 2018.  His 2019 rookie campaign was shortened by a torn ACL suffered in Week 9. At the time of the injury he was the best offensive skills player for Miami with 32 catches for 428 yards and three touchdowns. He’s picked up where he left off before the injury. This was a fantastic undrafted free agent signing for the Dolphins. 

NY Giants @ Cowboys– CeeDee Lamb (WR)

  • Sunday was a great day for rookies. The Cowboys traded for Amari Cooper to be the number one threat, but five games into the season, it’s clear that Lamb makes the offense go. He had eight catches for 124 yards, and just about every ball that went to him, it was a big play. The offense will obviously take a hit with quarterback Dak Prescott’s season ending injury, but the emergence of Lamb can help keep this team competitive (especially in the horrendous NFC East). 

Colts @ Browns – Ronnie Harrison (S)

  • Third-year Browns safety Ronnie Harrison intercepted a Philip Rivers pass at the Colts 47-yard line and returned it the length of the field for a score to increase the Cleveland lead to 27-10. 
  • Harrison would finish the game with two tackles, two passes defended in addition to the touchdown and interception.
  • Harrison, a 23-year old in his third season in the league was a Jaguars third-round pick in 2018 out of Alabama. He was traded at the beginning of the season from Jacksonville to Cleveland for the Browns fifth-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Vikings @ Seahawks– Damontre Moore (DE)

  • Damontre Moore signed with the Seahawks just over a month ago. It’s his second stint with the team having played for them in 2016. He’s bounced around to a number of teams since being drafted by the Giants in the third round of the 2013 NFL Draft. Moore even played in the now defunct AAF. 
  • Moore made an outstanding play on Sunday that contributed to the Seattle win. 
  • The Seahawks were down 13-0 at the half. They finally got on the scoreboard and a little momentum in the third quarter with a touchdown. After finding the end zone to make it 13-7, they had Minnesota pinned deep in their own territory. 
  • On 3rd & 17 from the Vikings 18-yard line, Moore strip sacked quarterback Kirk Cousins and the ball was recovered by Seattle linebacker K. J. Wright at the Vikings 15-yard line. 
  • Two plays later, the Seahawks would take their first lead of the contest. 

Chargers @ Saints– Marquez Callaway (WR)

  • The Saints wide receiving corps sorely misses Michael Thomas who was unavailable in three prior games due to injury and Week 5’s contest for disciplinary reasons. 
  • Emmanuel Sanders stepped up with 12 catches, but the Saints received an unexpected contribution from undrafted rookie wide receiver, Marquez Callaway. Callaway had four catches for 34 yards, including a first down catch on the first play in the overtime period that resulted in a Saints score. 
  • Callaway also contributed on special teams, returning 6 punts for 69 yards and 2 kickoffs for 57 yards.  Callaway like the previously mentioned Preston Williams, both played at one time for the University of Tennessee.

Opinions expressed are solely of the author and do not express the views or opinions of Headcoachranking.com.

NFL Week 5 Observations

By HCR Staff | October 12, 2020

As we thought at the season’s eve, 2020 was going to be the most interesting season in a long time.  Let’s get to it.

The Steelers Have Super Bowl Ingredients, But Can Mike Tomlin Gain More Consistency With His Own Decision-Making?  Steelers GM Kevin Colbert has successfully re-stocked the talent cupboard, and the team is poised for a deep playoff run.  They’ve got the ability – on both sides of the ball – to step on the gas at a moment’s notice.  There’s speed and physicality, and there’s more cohesiveness. 

Mike Tomlin deserves credit for both, particularly after all of the drama with former WR Antonio Brown.  When some head coaches lose the locker room, they can never get it back.  We’re not saying Tomlin lost it, but surely he was close, based on all the stories that emanated from there.  All of that is the rear view mirror now, and Tomlin is in position to eye a 2nd Super Bowl victory for himself. 

Tomlin, however, still needs button up his own in-game decision-making.  In the win over the Eagles yesterday, the Steelers held a comfortable 31-14 lead at 10:32 in the third quarter.  The Eagles were going nowhere momentum-wise, and came into this game with a significant talent deficit vis-à-vis the Steelers.  In short, the Steelers were in a strong position to fully control their 17-point lead to game’s end, and that’s what we were looking for.  Unfortunately, they didn’t, and that’s a reflection on Tomlin.  

The Steelers didn’t exhibit the control we wanted to see; instead, we saw decision-making that wasn’t Super Bowl quality, and the Eagles clawed their way back into the game and put it into jeopardy.  The Steelers ultimately won, but how the game ended showed us that Tomlin still has a ways to go – at least this season – in strategizing with a lead.  Tomlin has never threatened the top of our HCR rankings, and this is why.

We Watched The Jets And Adam Gase With The Intention Of Giving Him The Benefit Of The Doubt, But We Were Disappointed Again.  Gase has been beaten up by the national media – justifiably so – but coming into this game, we wanted to try analyzing what he’s doing with the most favorable lens possible.  Why? Well, maybe we’ve all missed something about Gase, so we wanted a game where we gave him every benefit of the doubt.  What did we see? 

First, and as we all know, there is a significant talent deficit here, so Gase doesn’t have much to work with.  The WR group is a disaster.  For example, undrafted free agent WR Jeff Smith had at least 5 targets.  On an important 3rd– and-1 early in the game, Gase did dial up a good play for a throw to Smith.  Smith got open, the ball was on the money, but Smith dropped the ball.  That’s not on Gase. 

On the first drive of the game, Gase dialed up an easy throw to Smith in the right flat; a completion would allow Smith a lot of room to run.  Smith was wide open, but backup quarterback Joe Flacco way overthrew him.  Clearly, this Flacco – Smith ‘combo’ wasn’t working. 

Notwithstanding this, and as a head coach, you have complete power over how to script the game, so there are other ways to keep your team competitive.  In this game, the Jets players did fight hard, but did Gase always make the best decisions to keep his team competitive?  Generally speaking, no.  Here’s one example. 

Trailing 7-0 early in the game (9:49 in the second quarter), the Jets faced a 3rd-and-1 at the Cardinals 13.  The Jets were on their best drive of the day, with Flacco finally finding a rhythm.   There is one position group where the Jets do have some talent, and that’s at running back, with Frank Gore and Le’Veon Bell – 2 players who will get Hall of Fame votes.  On this 3rd-and-1 play, it was reasonable to expect that Gore or Bell would touch the ball.  What did Gase do?  He gave it to TE/FB Trevon Wesco…who had 1 career carry.  Of course, he was stuffed. 

Now it is 4th-and-1.  We would have expected a 31-yard field goal attempt kick; not a hard kick, and a reward for a nice drive that would close the score to 7-3.  What did Gase do?  He chose to go for it, and at 4th-and-1, brought in Bell, and predictably gave it to him, and Bell was stuffed. 

Outcome: an excited Cardinals defense, and more psychological damage for the Jets offense. 

If Gase wants to win, he’s got to show he can accept the small victories in a game first, but he’s not showing that at all.

Bengals Head Coach Zac Taylor Had A Very Bad Day, Hopefully It’s Not A Pattern.  Taylor is another young head coach we want to like, but in an ugly loss to the Ravens, he really regressed.  Look, we get that on “any given Sunday” any team can win, but what that cliché does is equate a 1% chance to win with a 50% chance to win.  Yesterday, going into this game, the Bengals did not have a 50% chance to win, but Taylor chose to coach that way. 

The Bengals got down 17-0 quickly, and what we wanted to see is Taylor deliberately slow down the game, run the ball, and most importantly, preserve quarterback Joe Burrow’s health.  Burrow’s been taking a vicious beating all season, and he’s the future of the Bengals, more so than Taylor.  Taylor didn’t do what we wanted to see, unfortunately.  He kept coaching as if it was a one-score game.  He had Burrow keep slinging the ball out of formations that offered no protection advantage, and the quick possessions kept his defense – which actually fought valiantly – out on the field all game long.  Burrow was beaten up badly again, and it didn’t have to happen. 

We Will Keep Banging The Matt Rhule Drum.  Early on, we saw the quality in rookie Panthers head coach Matt Rhule, and now the rest of the league is seeing it.  The Panthers got down early in this road game against the Falcons, who came out with good energy.  But Rhule has instilled poise into his squad, and they didn’t panic.  Instead, they slowly took control of this game like a patient python swallowing a large pig.  Rhule is a clinical decision-maker; he’s very impressive in this department.  We also like that he never asks his players to do something they physically can’t do – they’re not widgets to him.  He’s very disciplined about this.  The Panthers are going to be a very tough out for every team this year and into the future.

Brian Flores Registers An Impressive Performance, And Kyle Shanahan Got Humbled.  The Dolphins have had a tough early season schedule, but they’re handling it well and with poise, and that’s a reflection on Flores.  The Dolphins play hard, physically, and with explosion.  One other thing stands out to us:  if a player makes a mistake, it matters to him.  That kind of accountability is also a direct reflection on the head coach.  All of this resulted in a dominant performance for Flores against a tough opponent in a distant road game.  The Dolphins also show excellent unit cohesion.  Flores hasn’t won anything yet, but the way he manages a game reminds of us…Bill Parcells. 

On the flip side, this was a bad performance for the 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan.  We rarely see him out-game planned, but he was this game.  We also rarely see Shanahan mis-gauge the ability of his players, and he did in this game.  For example, the 49ers are playing short-handed at cornerback; they had to start journeyman Brian Allen.  Did their defensive scheme account for this?  No.  The result was predictable – an early game torching of Allen that led to a quick deficit.  49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh didn’t help Shanahan here as he took far too long to adjust.  Shanahan simply was surprised by the Dolphins’ aggressiveness and tempo, and he was slow to adjust.  Just goes to show that even the very best can have a bad game here and there.

NFL 2020 Week 4 Observations

By HCR Staff | October 5, 2020

NFL 2020 WEEK 4 OBSERVATIONS

The NFL league office brass is conducting a league-wide call with owners and GMs this morning to re-emphasize COVID guidelines, and we hope the message takes hold.  Week 4 was entertaining and we’re hoping the season can safely continue.

Let’s get to it.

The Ravens Still Have The Winning Formula.  Notwithstanding the beating they took from Kansas City in Week 3, the Ravens still are going to be there in the end fighting for a Super Bowl slot.  As we all know, they’ve got talent – young and veteran – up and down the roster, and they know what their winning formula is: get the lead early so they can stay in their offense.  In this game, WFT actually held their own for a quarter and half, and even though the Ravens were staked to an early 14-7 lead, WFT was hanging around – effectively. 

Then came, what we consider, the key decision moment in the game for WFT head coach Ron Rivera.  His team trailed 14-7 toward the end of the Q2, but the Ravens were still having to fight.  Rivera’s team faced a 4th & 7 at the Raven 36, meaning Rivera was in a position to attempt a 53- yard FG with kicker Dustin Hopkins.  Hopkins already had missed a 46- yarder earlier. 

From a game-feel standpoint, the best option for Rivera was to attempt the 4th down – even if WFT gained 4 yards and was short, the Ravens would get the ball on their own 32, and a bit longer field to confront. 

Instead of doing that, however, Rivera decided to give Hopkins another opportunity.  Hopkins proceeded to miss, the Ravens took over on their own 43 – decidedly better field position – and then QB Lamar Jackson proceeded to take it in for a long TD run and a 21-7 lead that never really was threatened again. 

We applaud Coach Rivera, of course, for attempting to coach through chemotherapy treatments, but from a decision-making standpoint, he’s got a very young team, and he can’t take the risky option much; he simply doesn’t have that kind of margin for error.  He just has to be more by-the-book in our view.

Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn Made The Best Of A Bad Situation.  As a head coach, Anthony Lynn still has room for improvement with his game management skills, but he doesn’t have any issue with motivating a team to play hard for him. 

The Chargers were on a long road trip, a 10a PDT start time, and the injury list was long.  As a consequence, Lynn had to play a lot of green and undrafted players.  Nevertheless, they performed admirably, and were in a position to win this game. 

Young offensive coordinator Shane Steichen shows promise as well as he’s trying to bring rookie QB Justin Herbert along.  Steichen isn’t asking Herbert to do anything he can’t do at the moment, and that’s keeping the Chargers competitive.

 On the flip side for the Bucs, we were disappointed in the performance of Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles.  He’s getting predictable with his blitz calls, and showed tremendous injudiciousness on his 3rd & 7 blitz call right after the Bucs had taken a lead after overcoming a 24-7 deficit. 

A positive development for the Bucs was the play of rookie OT Tristan Wirfs.  He had a solid day against stud Chargers DE Joey Bosa.  Bosa brings the heat on every single play, but Wirfs held his own.

Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski May Be Figuring Out That Running The Team Through QB Baker Mayfield Isn’t The Right Course.  While the Browns almost blew an historic lead against the Cowboys, we loved what Stefanski did for the Browns on Sunday: run the team through its best players, and that’s backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, WR Odell Beckham, and DE Myles Garrett.  Put them in a position to do well, and the team will do well. 

Compared to these elite players, QB Baker Mayfield’s talent pales in comparison.  If they can get lucky with the injury diagnosis to Chubb, the Browns will be a handful for teams this season. 

Stefanski should continue to build this team’s identity around running the ball; he’s got the talent in the backfield, and his offensive line is developing an identity and rhythm.

 Stefanski also did well getting Beckham involved early – his enthusiasm is rocket fuel for this team.  On defense, we liked the games we saw on the defensive line, particularly when it allows Garrett one-on-one opportunities. 

Stefanski just has to keep it simple: let your best players play, and Mayfield isn’t one of them.

Panthers head coach Matt Rhule Continues To Impress.  We saw it early: Rhule knows what he’s doing, and the Panthers will be a tough out all year long.  If you’re a Panthers fan, be excited for the future because a solid foundation is being set.  The Panthers are a fundamentally sound team, and Rhule is a sound game manager, so if you’re a bettor, take note now.  This is a guy you can count on to help your money. 

Rhule has good judgment, and he’s also created a team that likes to play with each other.  One thing that jumps out at us as well:  players know their role – there’s not a lot of freelancing going on with this group.  Discipline wins games, and Rhule has it. 

On the flip side for the Cardinals, we’re starting to see a trend with head coach Kliff Kingsbury – he’s limited as an offensive innovator.  We’re seeing too much reliance on QB Kyler Murray’s unreal skills to bail them out. 

The Cardinals aren’t a popular national team, so most fans don’t see them, but from a raw skills standpoint, Murray takes a backseat to no one, including Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and DeShaun Watson.  Murray just doesn’t have as much help on the coaching side.

The Giants Played Hard – Again – But They Lack Talent.  It’s still far too early to judge Giants rookie head coach Joe Judge, but we can judge GM Dave Gettleman, and he’s not getting a passing grade from us. 

The Giants had the Rams on the ropes and played as hard as they could play, but they just don’t have the talent for 60 minutes with a good team like the Rams.  QB Daniel Jones continues to turn the ball over, but frankly, the poor kid is running for his life on nearly every play, and he’s taking extreme punishment.  

Judge passed up a FG late in the fourth quarter we thought he should have taken, but other than that, coached a good game from a decision-making standpoint.  Giants fans, your team will play hard, but you’re still another draft away, at least.